Gold sticks near record high after jobs report amid haven demand from investors seeking refuge from U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies on the Middle East, trade and immigration.
Spot gold had drifted down slightly in early morning trading, but rose $20 an ounce on this morning’s jobs report that revealed somewhat conflicting data. January’s job growth, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was up 143,000, missing the forecasted 169,000. While job growth slipped, the unemployment rate edged down to 4% and worker wages rose sharply.
Citigroup on Thursday forecast that gold prices would reach a record $3,000 an ounce within three months on geopolitical tensions and Trump’s trade wars. Trump ordered 10% tariffs on China last weekend, and Beijing promptly reciprocated with duties starting next week. Trump has also doubled down on comments made earlier this week about the U.S. taking over the Gaza Strip. The proposal kept prices of the yellow metal elevated, attracting risk-off investors.
April gold futures fell 0.4% Thursday to $2,876.70 an ounce on Comex, though the most-active contract is up 1% this week. Bullion increased 7.4% last month after dropping 1.5% in December and losing 2.5% in November. The metal gained 27% in 2024, its biggest annual gain since 2010. The April contract is currently up $25.40 (+0.88%) an ounce to $2902.10 and the DG spot price is $2876.30.
“The gold market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0,” Citi analysts including Kenny Hu wrote in a report cited by Bloomberg. The bank raised its three-month price target for the yellow metal from $2,800 an ounce, which gold has already topped.
The jobs report Friday will be closely watched for indications on the Fed’s monetary policy. High interest rates are considered bearish for gold, while low rates and rate cuts are bullish.
Most investors aren’t pricing in a Fed rate reduction until June, according to investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool. About 91.5% expect rates to remain unchanged in March, compared with 8.5% anticipating a 25 basis point cut.
Fed policymakers unanimously agreed last week to keep their benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. It was the central bank’s first policy meeting since July without a rate cut. The Fed cut rates three times last year, reducing its benchmark interest rate in September, November and December. Previously, the Fed had kept rates at 5.25% to 5.50% for a year after raising them by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to combat inflation.
Front-month silver futures dropped 0.7% Thursday to $32.63 an ounce on Comex, though the most-active March contract increased 3.5% in the first four days of the week. Silver added 10% last month after dropping 6% in December and falling 5.1% in November. It gained 21% in 2024. The March contract iis currently up $0.379 (+1.16%) an ounce to $33.005 and the DG spot price is $32.48.
Spot palladium rallied 3.2% Thursday to $986.50 an ounce and is up by the same amount this week. Palladium advanced 11% last month after falling 6.7% in December and sliding 12% in November. Palladium dropped 17% last year. Currently, the DG spot price is down $5.00 an ounce to $980.50.
Spot platinum rallied 0.8% Tuesday to $997.70 an ounce and is up 3.9% so far this week. Platinum gained 8.4% in January after losing 4.6% in December and declining 4.2% in November. Platinum slid 8.4% in 2024. The DG spot price is currently up $10.30 an ounce to $999.60.
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