Gold heads for a down week driven by Fed speculation. The yellow metal was little changed early Friday, but is poised for its worst week in more than three years, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank doesn’t need to be “in a hurry” to cut interest rates because of strong economic growth. A rising dollar is also suppressing the bullion.
A delay in interest rates would be bearish for gold, which typically gets a boost from lower interest rates. But the precious metal has stabilized after dropping from a record high on Oct. 31, with losses accelerating after Donald Trump won last week’s U.S. presidential election.
The dollar weighed on the precious metal this week even after two key measures of inflation, the consumer price index and the producer price index, came in this week in line with estimates for October. But the U.S. currency halted its advance at the end of the week. A stronger dollar is bearish for gold because it makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Front-month gold futures fell 0.5% Thursday to settle at $2,572.90 an ounce on Comex, and the most-active December contract slid 4.5% in the first four days of the week. Bullion rose 3.4% in October after gaining 5.2% in September and advancing 2.2% in August. The metal is up 24% in 2024. The December contract is currently up $5.00 (+0.19%) an ounce to $2577.90 and the DG spot price is $2572.00.
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said Thursday in Dallas. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
Powell specifically said that the labor market is holding up, which makes rate cuts more likely. The Fed has said that it watches both inflation and labor market conditions closely when setting monetary policy. The Fed has cut rates twice so far this year – and is expected to do so again in December – after previously raising them to combat high inflation.
The CPI report on Wednesday showed inflation rose 0.2% last month from September, and the year-on-year rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 2.6%. Both figures were in line with estimates. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month and 3.3% year on year, both also in line with estimates.
Separately, wholesale prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, and inflation was at 2.4% year on year. Excluding food and energy, core PPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and 3.1% for the year, also in line with expectations.
The Fed cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points last week to 4.50% to 4.75%, bolstering gold’s appeal as an alternate investment. It was the second rate cut this year, after a 50 basis point reduction in September. The central bank began raising rates during the pandemic to combat surging inflation.
Just over half of the investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are betting that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, ending the year at 4.25% to 4.50%. The rest expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged next month. Before the recent cuts, the Fed had kept rates at 5.25% to 5.50% for a year after raising them by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022.
Front-month silver futures lost 0.3% Thursday to $30.57 an ounce on Comex, and the December contract decreased 2.8% in the first four days of the week. Silver advanced 4.3% in October after rallying 7.9% in September and gaining 0.7% in August. It’s up 27% in 2024. The December contract is currently up $0.296 (+0.97%) an ounce to $30.865 and the DG spot price is $30.80.
Spot palladium rose 1.3% Thursday to $953.00 an ounce, and it’s down 4.9% so far this week. Palladium increased 11% in October after gaining 3.2% in September and rising 3.2% in August. Palladium is down 15% this year. The current DG spot price is up $20.80 an ounce to $963.50.
Spot platinum edged up 20 cents Thursday to $943.40 an ounce and retreated 3.3% so far this week. Platinum rose 1.5% in October after increasing 5.6% in September and sliding 5.2% in August. Platinum is down 5.4% this year. The DG spot price is up $7.50 an ounce to $952.50.
Disclaimer: This editorial has been prepared by Dillon Gage Metals for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. This editorial opinion is not to be construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity, or course of action. Opinions expressed herein cannot be attributable to Dillon Gage. Reasonable people may disagree about the events discussed or opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not come to fruition, results are likely to vary substantially. It is not a solicitation or advice to make any exchange in commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisers with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand, and accept this disclaimer.
The post Gold heads for down week on Fed speculation appeared first on Dillon Gage.
