Category Archives: Investment

In a recent video by Blue Line Futures LLC, renowned financial analyst Phil Sreible, delves into the intricate dynamics of the global commodities market, providing valuable insights for investors. Continue reading →

BTC’s options expiring on Oct 5 trade at higher implied volatility (IV) compared to Oct. 25 options.The so-called IV kink points to a unusually volatile weekend.Traders seem to bracing for price turbulence post Friday’s NFP and potential retaliatory strikes by Israel.The bitcoin {{BTC}} bull run since October last year has seen mostly quiet weekends, but that’s about to change, according to a key metric.At press time, bitcoin’s “implied volatility term structure” indicates bigger price swings on Saturday (Oct. 5) than on days leading up to Oct. 25, according to Deribit options data tracked by Arbelos Markets.The term structure is a graphical representation of options-determined implied or expected volatilities (IV) at different expiration dates. It is usually upward sloping, with longer duration options trading pricer in terms of implied volatility relative to short duration ones.However, as of writing, the curve exhibited a kink, with options expiring on Oct. 5 trading at an annualized IV of 51.44%, notably higher than options expiring on Oct. 6, Oct. 11, Oct. 18, and Oct. 25.In other words, traders are pricing more significant price swings for Saturday, possibly anticipating increased volatility following Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release and amid geopolitical tensions, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of Arbelos Markets.”There’s a very noticeable kink in the vol curve – Friday (Oct. 4) is trading around 39 vol and Saturday (Oct. 5) is trading 51 vol. The market is pricing in a risk premium from nonfarm payrolls data, but more importantly, some probability of an Israeli retaliation post-Rosh Hashanah,” Lim told CoinDesk.Implied volatilities for BTC options with different expirations. (Joshua Lim/Deribit)Focus on payrollsThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the NFP on Friday at 12:30 UTC. Per FXStreet, the data is expected to show that the economy added 140,000 jobs in September, following August’s weaker-than-expected increase of 142,000. The jobless rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings matching August’s pace of 3.8%.According to ING, risks are skewed in favor of hawkish repricing of 25 basis points Fed rate cuts in November and December and dollar strength unless the data misses expectations big margin.The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) last month, torching a rally in risk assets, including BTC. Currently, markets expect at least another 50 bps cut by the year-end.”The pricing for year-end Fed funds continues to largely embed a 50 bps cut in either November or December, meaning room for further re-alignment with the Fed’s less dovish rhetoric and consequently upside risks for the dollar. We sense that the bar for a dollar-negative reaction to U.S. data today and tomorrow is probably higher after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent pushback against 50 bps reductions,” ING said in a note to clients.A stronger dollar often weighs over risk assets, including BTC and traditional safe havens like gold.Volatile middle east situationOn Oct 1, Iran fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, ratcheting up tensions and risk of a full-blown war and leading to a broad-based risk aversion. BTC dropped over 4% on the same, eventually testing the $60,000 support.Per ING, investors are now on high alert, awaiting Israel’s retaliation against Iran, leading to a rally in crude prices and a stronger dollar index.A potential action over the weekend, when traditional markets are closed, could see both traditional and crypto traders express their views in the digital assets market, leading to an unusually volatile weekend. Continue reading →

Gold prices declined about 0.5% to just below $2,650 an ounce after Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin spoke during an economic conference Wednesday and said there is “still work to do on inflation.” Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — European and US stock futures gained in line with Asian equities ahead of US jobs data that will identify the path ahead for interest rates. An oil price rally eased after Middle East tensions led to the biggest one-day jump in almost a year.Most Read from BloombergEuro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2%, and contracts on the S&P 500 advanced 0.1%. Equities in Japan and South Korea rose while markets in mainland China were shut for a holiday. A gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong advanced as traders assessed its recent rally’s sustainability and await details of fiscal stimulus and holiday spending.An index of dollar declined marginally, but is still poised for the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months as traders pared back expectations for aggressive US rate cuts. Treasuries were flat after selling off on Thursday, increasing yields to levels not seen since September.West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude eased slightly after each rose more than 5% to a one-month high on Thursday. Earlier gains came after puzzling comments from President Joe Biden, who told reporters the US was discussing whether to support potential Israeli strikes against Iranian oil facilities.Investors are concerned that, should Israel strike critical Iranian assets, the Islamic Republic will lash out and escalate the conflict, dragging in more countries and potentially disrupting global energy shipments. Israel said it bombed more than a dozen Hezbollah targets in Beirut on Thursday.“The market fear is that there could be supply disruptions coming out of Iran,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, on Bloomberg Television. “Demand for oil should remain healthy, but at the same time the risk to the supply side is very much there.”The initial buying frenzy in Chinese stocks after Beijing’s stimulus is waning as traders take profit and await policy details and holiday spending data for further confidence. Invesco Ltd.’s chief investment officer for Hong Kong and China, Raymond Ma, who predicted double-digit returns in Chinese equities this year, said there are signs the surge has gone too far for some stocks. Still, strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc and BlackRock Inc. are among Wall Street heavyweights turning bullish on the once beaten-down market.The yen strengthened 0.6% against the dollar, paring some of its recent losses from earlier this week after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had said the nation isn’t ready for another interest-rate increase.Amid all the geopolitical uncertainty, investors are looking for further signals on the health of the US economy, with the monthly payrolls report due on Friday. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% in September while payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000.“If the unemployment rate ticks up, I wouldn’t be surprised that markets would shift back toward expecting 50 basis points and then it is a question of how the Fed may react,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said on Bloomberg Television.Other economic signs showed robustness in the US economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services posted its best reading since February 2023, ahead of Wall Street estimates. Applications for US unemployment benefits rose slightly last week to a level that is consistent with a limited number of layoffs. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, were little changed from the previous week.“The US dollar could stay supported on safe haven demand amid Middle East risks, and more so if US payrolls surprise on the upside,” Wei Liang Chang, a foreign-exchange and credit strategist at DBS Bank Ltd., wrote in a research note. “The yen may be a beneficiary too, as geopolitical risks restrain appetite for carry trades”Key events this week:Some of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:34 a.m. London timeNikkei 225 futures (OSE) were little changedJapan’s Topix rose 0.3%Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7%Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.2%Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2%Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changedThe euro was little changed at $1.1030The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 146.11 per dollarThe offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0571 per dollarThe Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6846The British pound was little changed at $1.3134CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 0.6% to $61,156.99Ether rose 1.5% to $2,376.85BondsCommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $73.62 a barrelSpot gold rose 0.4% to $2,666.99 an ounceThis story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

Interest rates, residual factors, price momentum, geopolitical risk, economic expansion — if you can name it, it can probably influence gold prices. Continue reading →

Copper’s (HG1:COM) bull market is nearly a quarter of a century old, and the prospects are for higher prices over the coming years. Since the November 2001 60.40 cents per pound low, copper has traded in a nearly perfect bullish path of higher lows and higher highs. Continue reading →

Gold prices steady as investors await key U.S. economic data, with eyes on labor reports and Fed’s moves. Geopolitical tensions and strong demand continue to support the metal’s long-term outlook. Continue reading →

Welcome to our latest episode! Today, we’re excited to feature David Morgan, a renowned analyst in the precious metals industry and the author of The Silver Manifesto. With years of experience consulting for high-net-worth investors, David also publishes The Morgan Report, which provides valuable insights into wealth preservation and precious metals investments. Continue reading →

UBS strategist says recent targeted ground operation by Israel into Lebanon will not be a significant driver of price. UBS … Continue reading →

Phil Streible, a leading precious metals expert, shared his bullish outlook in a recent commentary. He highlighted seasonal patterns, Fed … Continue reading →

Gold slips in Wednesday morning trading on profit-taking and a stronger dollar, but the yellow metal still remained near recent record highs supported by the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. Gold shrugged off this morning’s U.S. employment data. Continue reading →