Category Archives: Investment

(Bloomberg) — Stocks posted small moves and bonds steadied as flaring tensions in the Middle East put markets in a wait-and-see mode. Oil rose and gold hovered near a record.Most Read from BloombergWith traders awaiting Israel’s response to a missile barrage from Iran, and Brent crude topping $75 a barrel, geopolitical fears have replaced optimism around central bank policy easing as the main market driver. The escalation in the region spurred a flight to safety on Tuesday and sent Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — to a key level that usually indicates more market swings are in store.Europe’s Stoxx 600 index ticked higher, led by energy firms and defense stocks including Saab AB and Rheinmetall AG. Futures on the S&P 500 pointed to a muted open after Tuesday’s flight to safety. Treasury yields edged up, with the 10-year around 3.76%. The dollar traded flat.Hopes for monetary stimulus and a soft landing for the US economy “could yet be challenged, if we were to see these escalations persist,” Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, told Bloomberg TV.Listen and follow The Big Take on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcastsChinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, meanwhile, jumped the most in almost two years after Beijing followed other major cities in relaxing home purchase rules. The massive stimulus efforts announced by China’s leaders last week sent local assets soaring and helped lift markets overseas.In European company news, JD Sports Fashion Plc fell after reporting results and after Nike Inc. reported a drop in quarterly sales after the US market close. Oil producers and defense stocks climbed as Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran after it fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in a severe escalation of hostilities that has spurred fears of a Middle East-wide war.Separately, Republican JD Vance largely succeeded in sanding down his hardline reputation, while Democrat Tim Walz’s nerves were on display as the vice presidential candidates battled over immigration, abortion, and climate change during Tuesday’s debate.Key events this week:S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on WednesdayFed speakers include Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on WednesdayUS nonfarm payrolls, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksThe Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as of 10:25 a.m. London timeS&P 500 futures fell 0.3%Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.2%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changedThe euro was little changed at $1.1065The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 144.29 per dollarThe offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0277 per dollarThe British pound was little changed at $1.3284CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 1.2% to $61,544.65Ether rose 0.7% to $2,467.99BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.76%Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.08%Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.01%CommoditiesBrent crude rose 2.5% to $75.38 a barrelSpot gold fell 0.4% to $2,653.69 an ounceThis story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.–With assistance from Rob Verdonck.Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

Goldman Sachs this week raised its gold price target to $2,900, up from $2,700 an ounce, for early 2025.

“We reiterate our long gold recommendation due to the gradual boost from lower global interest rates, structurally higher central bank demand and gold’s hedging benefits against geopolitical, financial and recessionary risks,” according to a note from bank analysts. Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — European equities posted small moves and US stock futures edged lower as traders looked ahead to economic data for clues on the outlook for interest rates.Most Read from BloombergThe Stoxx 600 index was steady, with the focus on euro zone inflation data after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the bank is becoming more optimistic about getting price pressures under control. Contracts for the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% after the underlying benchmark notched its latest record high Monday.The dollar climbed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank will lower interest rates “over time,” while re-emphasizing that the overall economy remains on solid footing. Markets were also bracing for any effect after Israel said it had begun “targeted ground raids” in Lebanon.“I still think that global risk assets perform well heading into the end of the year as the macro backdrop and growth prove to be more resilient than previously expected,” said David Chao, a strategist at Invesco Asset Management. “Thus the near-term market narrative has shifted from questions about a slowing US economy to the size and velocity of the Fed’s rate cuts for the rest of the year.”Inflation data for the 20-nation euro zone Tuesday is expected to show a slowdown to 1.8% from 2.2% in August. Yields on German and UK bonds dropped, while those on Treasuries ticked lower across the curve.China’s markets are on a week-long holiday after the biggest surge in 16 years on Monday. The MSCI China Index beat an emerging-market gauge which excludes the nation’s equities by almost 22 percentage points in September, the biggest margin of outperformance since June 1999, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.In the US, the S&P 500 secured its fourth consecutive quarter of advances — the longest such winning stretch since 2021. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notched a similar run.“The bull market has survived the year’s historically weakest quarter, the third quarter, and it is likely to remain intact through at least the end of the year, as earnings remain strong, interest rates are moving lower and consumers are still spending,” said Emily Bowersock Hill at Bowersock Capital Partners.“We expect the fourth quarter to be quite similar to the third quarter – elevated volatility, but with a strong finish,” she added.In other news, The International Longshoremen’s Association shut down all ports from Maine to Texas on Tuesday, according to a statement from its Facebook page. The affected ports have the combined capacity to handle as much as half of all US trade volumes, and the strike will halt container cargo and auto shipments.In commodities, oil prices dropped as prospects of a return of Libyan supply countered the risks of a wider conflict in the Middle East.Key events this week:Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins speak TuesdayECB policy makers speaking include Olli Rehn, Luis de Guindos, Isabel Schnabel and Joachim Nagel on TuesdayBOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks TuesdaySouth Korea CPI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on WednesdayFed speakers include Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on WednesdayUS nonfarm payrolls, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksThe Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as of 8:31 a.m. London timeS&P 500 futures were little changedNasdaq 100 futures were little changedFutures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.1%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1118The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 144.05 per dollarThe offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 7.0263 per dollarThe British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3340CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 0.4% to $64,012.5Ether rose 1.3% to $2,648.47BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.76%Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.09%Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.98%CommoditiesBrent crude fell 0.9% to $71.03 a barrelSpot gold rose 0.3% to $2,642.57 an ounceThis story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.–With assistance from Jason Scott.Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

BIUS stocks rose to records on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s commented on the economy.Powell emphasized the economy’s strength and recalibrated interest rate cut expectations.Investors are also eyeing key employment data releases this week for further market direction.US stocks rose on Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at record highs as investors digested new comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.All three major indexes moved higher in late trading following Powell’s comments about the strength of the US economy.”This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” Powell said in a Q&A chat with the National Association for Business Economics, discussing the strength of the broader economy.”Overall, the economy is in solid shape,” Powell said in his prepared remarks. “We intend to use our tools to keep it there.”Powell’s comments recalibrated interest rate cut expectations in the market.According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 35% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s November FOMC meeting, down from 53% on Friday.”We are not on any preset course,” Powell said. “The risks are two-sided, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday:Aside from Fed comments, investors are preparing for a wave of employment data this week.Job openings data on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and the September jobs report on Friday are on the docket this week for investors to parse through.Economists expect about 145,000 jobs added to the economy in September, with the unemployment rate staying flat at 4.2%.Here’s what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:West Texas Intermediate crude oil was higher slightly by 0.18% to $68.30 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 0.43% to $71.85 a barrel.Gold was down 0.59% to $2,652.30 an ounce.The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 4 basis points at 3.795%.Bitcoin was lower by 3.18% to $63,527.Read the original article on Business Insider Continue reading →

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold keeps churning higher to new all-time highs. Yes, once again, gold made all-time highs with Thursday’s high at $2,708.70. Gold has had a good year. Currently up 34.2% in 2024, if it holds it would be best year since 1979, the year gold took off into the stratosphere, gaining 134.8%. Before that the best year was 1978 with a gain of 36.5%. In 2010 gold gained 29.8%. This time the Fed cutting rates helped spur the current round of buying. As well the US$ Index recently hit new 52-week lows, also helping gold. Geopolitical uncertainty, domestic political uncertainty, monstrous debt, central bank demand, strong buying out of Asia, China’s stimulus package, and waning confidence in all governments are helping the rise of gold. We also note that fund managers and hedge funds are waking up to having more gold in their portfolios.

After making its all-time high on Thursday, gold reversed on Friday and fell on what appears as profit-taking as no recent news shook it. The US$ Index was down and PCE prices were also down. We are also overbought with the RSI moving over 70. However, as we saw back in March/April, overbought can hang around for some time. Will events in the Middle East on the weekend spark a new rise as the region races towards all-out war? Or do we await the nonfarm payrolls on Friday to see what the Fed might be up to next? The Fed has two meetings left in November and December and a minimum further 50 bp cut is likely, but could it be a 100 bp?

On the week, gold rose 0.8%, silver was up 1.0% to 52-week highs and the highest level since 2012, platinum recovered a bit, up 4.1%, but palladium stumbled, down 5.1%, while copper soared on Chinese stimulus, up 6.0%. However, the gold stocks hesitated as the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) fell 0.7% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) was down 1.1% after both made 52-week highs.

Gold has been in a steady uptrend with only shallow pullbacks since breaking above that consolidation pattern that we believe was an ascending triangle. Since July, we have soared to all-time highs. So, is this another shallow pullback or might we pull back even more? A break under $2,600 might interrupt the magic. Under $2,500 we could move lower and under $2,400, and especially under $2,300, the up move would be officially over. First let’s hold above $2,600.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Silver finally broke through to new 52-week highs, but it was short-lived. Silver this past week jumped to a high of $33.02, surpassing the May high of $32.75. But just as soon as one could say “new high”, silver reversed and closed at $31.82. False move? We don’t think so, but a longer connecting line with that May high does come in just above $33. That’s another hurdle to overtake if we are to fulfill targets up at $38–$40. Many think we’ll go even higher, but let’s get to those targets first. Silver has considerable support down to $29, but we wouldn’t want to see a break under that level as that would signal further losses, possibly down to $26. The good news this week was that silver did gain 1.0%. But it was insufficient to burst through $33 resistance. Now we await the nonfarm payrolls on Friday to possibly point to the next direction. However, October is not noted for being a prime time for gold and silver, with tops in September followed by choppy weakness into December before the next good up leg gets underway. Will this year be different?

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The gold stock indices once again made 52-week highs, but then promptly saw a wave of profit-taking on Friday, pushing both indices into the red. On the week, the TSX Gold Index (TGD) lost 1.1% while the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was down 0.7%. A reversal? Yes, but not a key one. However, it may signal another period of consolidation. We would not want to see the TGD break under 360 and definitely not under 345. Both could be signalling that a more important top is in. There is still room to maneuver higher within the channel. The channel goes up to at least 400. But Friday’s move to the downside might set up at least a week of waffling as we go into next Friday’s anxiously awaited nonfarm payrolls.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: High Week, GDP Rise, China Stimulus

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

  Continue reading →

Once Nixon closed the ‘gold window ‘, a term referring to the ability of foreign governments to exchange their US dollars for gold, these four calamities unfurled were unleashed

1/ The US no longer had to honor the gold deposits from countries that purchased our finished goods and oil. This egregious act of fraud, rarely reported in US history, left a deep sense of betrayal. Simply put, European nations deposited their Gold during World War 2; then the US defaulted on all the other nation’s deposits (with w/the exception of France, who was able to redeem or repatriate their Gold)

2/ The transition to a fiat currency system void of gold backing had far-reaching effects. The Federal Reserve and US Treasury effectively initiated a continuous money printing process, steadily eroding the US dollar’s value. This devaluation, occurring shift after shift, month after month, year after year, was like a slow death by a thousand pay cuts, yielding that US workers were enduring a government-sanctioned reduction in their purchasing power.

3/ It also meant that politicians no longer had to ask the people to approve wars. All accountability to the public vanished. In a healthy, efficient, virtuous, fair, or functioning republic, the representatives listen to the will of the people and then vote in a manner that serves the interests of the citizens.

This is what we call ‘representative government.’ The operative word ‘represent’ translates to make present what is not present. But in our current system, this representation is a mere illusion, leaving the public without a voice in crucial decisions.

Since we can’t fill The US Capitol with 330 million people, the idea is to send representatives who will act in the interest of the workers and villagers.

In the case of every war since World War 2, there is no single case where the voters would approve of any of these US foreign adventures wars.

But under our corrupt kleptocracy, money is printed out of thin air to finance wars. It’s all built-in and by design that Politicians conspire with war profiteers to launch over 251 wars since 9-11 (even funding both sides of wars).

For instance, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, and conflicts in Somalia, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan (were all sold as “Wars on Terror” or “Spreading Democracy.”)

When Gaddafi started transacting outside the US dollar, US officials and war profiteers met in secret to declare that it was time to teach Libya and Gaddafi a lesson in “democracy.”

The same happened to Saddam Hussein and dozens of other foreign leaders.

The playbook remains consistent. The US dollar, often called the ‘petrodollar, ‘is used to finance wars. This involves seizing stealing Gold and oil (and laundering money through arms sales.)

Even today, Iraq’s oil transactions are settled through our Federal Reserve, a system about as ‘Federal’ as Federal Express.

Also, ammunition suppliers pay members of Congress who act as war salesmen (war promoters) receiving monstrous war sales commissions via campaign donations. Recall, that members of Congress get secret briefings under the guise of “national security” in advance…

Politicians feed and thrive over unending crisis to crisis and have the inside read serving as “stock tips” – aka INSIDER TRADING, both sides of the aisle:

Nancy Pelosi’s kid is a semiconductor expert

John Kerry’s kid is an energy genius

The Chinese government granted 18 trademarks to companies linked to President Donald Trump and his daughter Ivanka Trump 

And Hunter Biden (while toking on crackpipe and sexually abusing minors) managed to amass over $25 million brokering Energy deals in Ukraine, Oh really?

and over 100 members of Congress have beaten the S&P 500 by numbers that would make your head spin

4/ The US underwent a significant shift in its international commerce strategy. No longer was the US a powerhouse supplying its goods, such as cars from Detroit, steel from Pittsburgh, tires from Akron, textiles from the South, coal from Kentucky, corn from Iowa, and soybeans from Indiana.

Instead, the US’s chief export became the paper dollar.

This is quite a remarkable change, and unlike any other nation on the globe, to use the paper dollar in such egregious terms: a.) to hammer down US workers with the coercive inflation tax. The villagers are ravaged by inflation as any crisis is used as an excuse to pull future debt into the now and the value of the dollar disintegrates b.) to use the paper note to finance unending wars, c.) to enrich the parasitic class through insider trading, campaign donations and other acts of fraud and misallocations.

but d.) Today’s sermon is about the immorality of turning the nation from a productive society to one with insatiable consumption habits.

The Consumer Economy

Let us consider the moral implications of our economic practices, particularly in light of Scripture’s teachings on labor and justice.

The Bible and many other moral texts taught by religions like Buddhism, Hinduism, and Dao te Ching provide numerous examples demonstrating God’s disapproval of profit gained at the expense of workers’ well-being.

The National Labor Committee (now known as the Institute for Global Labour and Human Rights) has investigated and reported on numerous companies involved in sweatshop labor practices. Many major clothing and retail brands have been implicated in sweatshop labor at various points, including:

The Gap

Nike

Adidas

H&M

Forever 21

Ross

TJ Maxx

Target

J.C. Penney

Abercrombie & Fitch

The Limited

Talbots

Wayfair

These companies have faced criticism and legal action over labor practices.

The use of sweatshop labor is not limited to the clothing industry. Other sectors frequently cited include:

Toys (e.g., Disney, Mattel, Hasbro)

Electronics (e.g., Apple, Dell)

Mobile phones (Apple, Android)

Footwear

Sports Equipment

About 80% of the things on our shelves

The majority of food at the grocery store

In our modern context, multinationals achieve record profits while their business model involves workers laboring in dire conditions.

From an ethical perspective, we must question whether such arrangements constitute structurally immoral transactions.

The profits derived from these practices could be seen as the fruit of oppression, echoing the warnings found in James 5:4:

“Look! The wages you failed to pay the workers who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord Almighty.”

This verse underscores God’s attentiveness to economic injustice and the exploitation of laborers.

Furthermore, Proverbs 14:31 states, “Whoever oppresses the poor shows contempt for their Maker, but whoever is kind to the needy honors God.”

Deuteronomy 24:14-15 addresses the fair treatment of workers:

“Do not take advantage of a hired worker who is poor and needy, whether that worker is a fellow Israelite or a foreigner residing in one of your towns. Pay them their wages each day before sunset, because they are poor and are counting on it.”

There are dozens of passages that establish a clear connection between our treatment of workers and our relationship with God.

The production of goods in sweatshops, where workers are metaphorically “chained to sewing machines,” raises profound ethical questions.

Similarly, manufacturing toys, trinkets, gadgets, phones, tablets, laptops, flatscreens, etc, under oppressive conditions for the entertainment of children, teens, and adults in more affluent nations creates a morally troubling dynamic.

These sweatshops are made possible because the US exports the paper dollar in exchange for finished goods.

We are called to critically examine our participation in these economic systems and consider how our consumer choices align with our moral principles of justice and compassion. It’s not just about understanding the issues, but also about taking responsibility for our actions and making informed choices that can drive positive change.

The challenge is reconciling our economic practices with our best judgments and moral convictions. We must seek ways to be self-aware and opt out of the US paper dollar by curbing our insatiable consumption while becoming advocates for just labor practices. Our advocacy can make a difference, and it’s crucial that we stay motivated in this pursuit of justice.

In the realm of ethics, there’s a crucial lesson about the impact of our consumption habits on global citizenship.

This perspective cautions against the excesses of consumerism, highlighting how overconsumption in affluent societies can strain resources and exploit labor in developing nations.

A vital aspect of this ethical stance is recognizing the manipulative nature of advertising.

Glossy images of opulent homes and luxurious possessions are designed to create artificial desires, suggesting that material acquisitions can fill an emotional void.

This marketing strategy exploits human vulnerabilities, promoting a cycle of endless consumption.

Silver stackers adopt critical thinking about our needs versus wants and advocate for simpler living. This is because the silver stacking creed rejects the corrupt motives behind fiat currencies and the side effects of printed paper. These lead to conditions where paper underwrites a debt-based model, resulting in the debt-based consumer economy (finished goods we don’t need to be financed by predatory credit cards with taglines like “What’s in your Wallet?”).

It emphasizes that true fulfillment comes not from accumulating possessions but from cultivating meaningful experiences and relationships and from contributing positively to society.

Wayfair is Unfair to the Sweatshop Laborer

The juxtaposition of Wayfair’s “You’ve got just what I need” slogan and 1-800-Got-Junk’s promise to make clutter disappear ideally encapsulates the modern consumer’s paradox

On one hand, we’re constantly bombarded with messages that new products will fulfill our desires and bring happiness. Wayfair’s catchy tune taps into this insatiable need for more, promising to satisfy our every home-related whim.

Conversely, the 1-800-Got-Junk ad represents our growing awareness of overconsumption and the burden of excess possessions. It appeals to our desire for simplicity and freedom from material clutter. 

This contrast highlights many’s internal struggles: the allure of acquiring new things versus the peace of living with less.

It poignantly reflects our society’s complex relationship with consumerism and the ongoing search for balance between desire and contentment.

-end of sermon Continue reading →

David Morgan answers a bunch of our questions about Silver. He thinks there could be weakness short-term but remains convinced Silver will blow through $50 and trade in triple digits. Continue reading →

Commodities have done well in September but silver — and natural gas — stand out from the pack for reasons all their own, and show few signs of an end to their price rally.

“September’s commodities market felt like a long-distance race where, after months of pacing themselves, the runners finally kicked into high gear,” said Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group. Continue reading →

For further confirmation, I find it valuable to analyze silver priced in euros. This method removes the impact of U.S. dollar fluctuations, offering a clearer view of silver’s intrinsic strength or weakness. Interestingly, silver priced in euros often respects round numbers like €26, €27, and €28, frequently establishing key support and resistance levels at these points. These levels are worth monitoring closely—take a look for yourself. On Tuesday, silver closed above both the €28 level and a downtrend line that started in May, marking a very bullish development. The final hurdle is for silver to decisively close above the €30 level on high volume, which would be the signal that silver is ready to take off.

Silver mining stocks are also important to watch for confirming silver’s price movements, as they often mirror investor sentiment toward the metal. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (symbol: SIL), the most heavily traded silver mining stock ETF, has been stuck in a flat range since April. A strong, high-volume close above the $36 to $37 resistance zone would signal that both silver mining stocks and silver itself are poised for a significant breakout. After surging last Tuesday, SIL is very close to breaking out.

Similarly, the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (symbol: SILJ)—a key proxy for junior silver mining shares—has been range-bound for the past five months. A decisive, high-volume close above the $13 to $13.50 resistance zone would indicate the start of a rally for both silver mining shares and silver itself. After its sharp rise on Tuesday, SILJ is very close to breaking out.

Gold, a major driver of silver prices, is generating a tailwind for silver after breaking through two key resistance levels in the past month and a half. In a recent Substack piece, I explained how gold’s breakout across multiple currencies sets the stage for an imminent surge toward $3,000.

The gold-to-silver ratio is a valuable indicator for gauging silver’s price direction. A double top chart pattern appears to have formed over the past two months, indicating a likely decline in the ratio. This suggests that silver may soon start outperforming gold. A close below the 83 to 84 support zone is key to confirming the start of a silver rally and its outperformance of gold. Following silver’s strong performance on Tuesday, the ratio is starting to break below the critical 83 to 84 support zone—an unmistakable sign of strength for silver.

The price of copper is often an underappreciated factor in silver’s performance. Copper’s decline over the past several months has dragged silver down with it, but the copper rebound I’ve been anticipating following a technical breakout should significantly strengthen silver’s rally.

Another potential bullish factor for silver, gold, and copper is the prospect of a weaker U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle. Since commodities typically move inversely to the U.S. dollar, this is a critical development to monitor. The key level to watch is the 100 support on the U.S. Dollar Index. A close below this level would strongly suggest a continued decline toward the 90 support level. At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading at 99.95.

As silver nears a critical breakout, the convergence of multiple indicators signals a strong bullish outlook. Recent economic developments, such as the U.S. rate cut and China’s stimulus measures, have fueled momentum in commodities like silver, gold, and copper. Silver’s ability to break through key resistance levels, both in U.S. dollars and euros, alongside potential strength in silver mining stocks and a weakening U.S. dollar, reinforces the bullish outlook. As the gold-to-silver ratio shows signs of decline and copper rebounds, the stage is set for silver to make significant gains, with $50 as a key intermediate-term target. Investors should keep a close eye on these developments as silver’s next major bull market may be just days away.

If you enjoyed this article, be sure to check out my recent piece, “Why Another Chinese Gold Mania May Be Starting.” Continue reading →

The latest reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices increased at a slower pace than expected on a monthly basis in August.The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.1 % from the prior month during August, below Wall Street’s expectations for 0.2% and the 0.2% reading seen in July.Over the prior year, prices rose 2.7% in August, matching Wall Street’s expectations and coming in higher than 2.6% seen in July. On a yearly basis, overall PCE increased 2.2%, its lowest annual increase since February 2021.”We’ve come on a string of pretty good inflation readings over the last several months, and that was coming after an acceleration in inflation in the first quarter,” PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding told Yahoo Finance. “So I think fed officials are pretty feeling pretty good about where inflation is sitting.”The report is the first look at inflation since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point on Sep. 18. In a press conference after the decision, Powell noted the Fed now has “greater confidence” in inflation’s path down the central bank’s 2% target.Powell argued that further cooling in the labor market is now as big of a concern for the Fed as inflation.”The upside risks to inflation have really come down, the downside risks to employment have increased,” Powell said. “And because we have been patient and held our fire on cutting — while inflation has come down, I think we’re now in a very good position to manage the risks to both of our goals.”Friday’s data now comes as investors debate whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its November meeting. Following Friday’s release, investors were pricing in a 54% chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut, above the 50% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock pricesRead the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance Continue reading →

Gold is one of the best-performing asset classes year-to-date, outperforming U.S. and international equities and bonds, commodities and other real assets (broadly speaking). Continued global central bank buying and heightened geopolitical tensions were among the key drivers of gold’s strong returns earlier in the year. More recently, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) pivot on interest rates and nascent signs of returning investment demand have been more prevalent drivers and could, in our view, lead to even higher prices in the near-term. Continue reading →

(Reuters) – Silver prices have bubbled up to their highest in over a decade on the back of bullion’s stellar bull run and China’s stimulus measures, although some analysts expect the rally to fade as industrial sector demand remains a concern. Continue reading →