Category Archives: Investment

Don’t overlook silver.

Gold has been in the spotlight this year. The yellow metal has set multiple records and has outperformed a red-hot stock market.

Meanwhile, in the shadows, silver has enjoyed a nice run-up of its own. The white metal is up 29 percent year to date, about the same as gold in percentage terms.

And this silver bull may have an even brighter road ahead of it than gold.

According to analysts at UBS, silver will likely outperform gold over the next 12 months.

Bullish on Gold!

It’s not that UBS has soured on gold. In a recent note, analysts said plenty of momentum remains with the Federal Reserve pivoting into an easing cycle. And there are other bullish factors in play as well.

“It’s not just the expectations of lower yields at play, with further support from macro and geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuing trend of USD diversification by central banks.”

The UBS analysts said that the geopolitical uncertainty and tension are “likely” to extend into 2025, “with the next U.S. government (and its policies) uncertain.”

“We expect gold to remain a favored market hedge for both geopolitical and rate risks. Historically, the metal has outperformed equities during periods of elevated volatility, which again proved to be the case in recent months despite a less dovish market consensus on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead.”

Even More Bullish on Silver!

Although silver has kept pace with gold this year, most people perceive it as lagging.

And silver is underpriced compared to gold from a historical perspective.

As the UBS report notes, the gold-silver ratio is extremely wide. It is currently over 84:1. That means it takes over 84 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.

To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 60:1. 

Historically, after widening, the ratio has always returned to the mean. And it has done so with a vengeance, sometimes even overshooting that mean. The ratio fell to 30:1 in 2011 and below 20:1 in 1979.

UBS analysts expect the gold-silver ratio to narrow over the next 12 months, likely dropping back into the 60s. That would mean a significant rally for silver, even as gold continues to climb.

“We maintain our view that silver is set to benefit from a rising gold price environment, which is aligned with Fed policy easing.”

The UBS report also notes the favorable supply and demand dynamics.

Silver demand outstripped supply for the third straight year in 2023 as mine output dropped and industrial demand set a record.

“Our expectation that the silver market will remain in deficit over the coming years implies continuous declines in above-ground inventories, which should help fundamentally underpin prices as well as act as a tailwind for investor interest.”

UBS’s projections fit with historical trends.

Silver has historically outperformed gold in a gold bull market, particularly in the later stages. For instance, gold charted a gain of around 40 percent during the pandemic. Meanwhile, silver was up a whopping 141 percent.

Technical factors also signal a looming gold breakout, with a secular cup and handle pattern in play.

History, fundamentals, and technical factors all look bullish for silver. Wise investors are paying attention. Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Applications to refinance mortgages surged for a second week as more Americans capitalized on the cheapest borrowing costs in two years.Most Read from BloombergThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s refinancing index jumped 20.3% in the week ended Sept. 20 to the highest level since April 2022, the group said Wednesday. The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage eased 2 basis points to 6.13%, the eighth straight weekly drop and the longest stretch of declines since 2018-2019.That helped boost the group’s home-purchase applications index by 1.4% last week to the highest level since early February. The fifth straight weekly advance in the measure points to burgeoning demand in a housing market that’s gradually finding some footing.At the same time, home financing costs may start to stabilize. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have edged higher in the last week as traders debate the magnitude of Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate cut in November as well as the path for reductions.The average contract rate on a 15-year mortgage and the five-year adjustable-rate mortgage ticked up last week after sharp declines in the prior two weeks.The MBA survey, which has been conducted weekly since 1990, uses responses from mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The data cover more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the US.(Adds graphic.)Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold has responded positively to the Fed rate cut. The cut helped lower the US$ Index, which is positive for gold. The result was gold soared to another new all-time high, closing at $2,646. $2,700 is on the radar. Nothing like an aggressive rate cut by the Fed to get things going. But the gain on the week was only about 1.4%. Silver also rose about 1.4%. However, platinum continues its woes, losing 2.5%, and is down 4.0% on the year compared to gold, up 27.7%, and silver, up 30.8%. Copper gained 2.5% and appears to once again be breaking out. We saw up moves on a number of copper-based stocks this past week.

Other reasons gold is pushing higher are the escalation of the wars between Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah, Houthis and, indirectly, Iran and Syria. Economist Martin Armstrong (www.armstrongeconomics.com) reported on his private blog that a munitions dump north of Moscow was hit using British-made, long-range missiles that may have contained nuclear components because of the huge hole they left. This is not verified, but does highlight the potential for a major escalation in that war. In the Middle East there is very little sign that the sides are even talking. Peace is further away than ever, given the attacks against Hezbollah this past week. Gold is a geopolitical safe haven.

Domestically, it is the same, as violence is rising as we get closer to the election, an election sure to be challenged if Trump loses and possibly as well if Harris loses. Neither side has even the remotest of will to talk to each other. Talk of clashes between the sides is also dominating the discussion. The assassination attempts against Trump also highlight the gravity of the situation. Gold is a safe haven from domestic politics as well.

Finally, as we have noted before, central bank buying of gold continues as they try to exit U.S. treasuries. The U.S.’s thoughts of moving $300 billion of seized Russian assets to Ukraine has made numerous countries nervous, prompting the purchase of gold. Russia is also doing business in gold rather than in U.S. dollars since they have been removed from SWIFT. That allows Russia to continue trade and avoid sanctions.

The gain this year for gold is the largest since 2010, yet we see few signs, if any, that gold has topped. The RSI has risen into overbought territory, but we’ve seen in the past that this condition can remain longer than the shorts can stay solvent in a strong market. Forecasts are for gold to hit $2,700 by January 2025, possibly sooner. The massive cup and handle pattern that formed between 2011 and earlier this year projects up to at $3,100–$3,200. If that level was taken out, the next stop could be $3,800.  

Downside under $2,450 could suggest further losses, but under $2,300 would suggest that the rally is over. The reasons for holding gold continue to pile up. Yet gold today remains very under-owned, especially in North America. The biggest fear is governments putting controls on gold, as gold moving higher shows a lack of confidence in governments. We continue to see higher prices ahead accompanied by periodic sharp pullbacks.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

When bullion rises, who leads? It should be silver. But silver also leads to the downside. The much-despised gold/silver ratio is still extremely high, at a too-high level that is currently 84. It peaked at 127 during the height of the pandemic. In 2011, at the top of the market for gold and silver, the ratio was about 31. The all-time low was 15.6, but that was way back in 1980. Today, silver would need to be at $169 to reach that level. We have a long way to go. Even the most recent lows of 64 in 2021 and 73 in July 2024 are a way away. Silver did not lead this past week, but at least it tied gold’s gains of about 1.4%. We appear to be breaking that downtrend line from the May top. The close at $31.50 does suggest we should take out the July top with potential targets up to at least $37 and possibly up to $40. Support is now at $30, but a breakdown under $26.50 would be highly negative with the first warning sign at $28.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold stocks continue to climb, although the pace this past week was no doubt painfully slow for many gold bugs. Still, we once again made 52-week highs so there were some positives. On the week, the TSX Gold Index (TGD) rose just under 0.3% while the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was up a feeble 0.05% or generously rounded to 0.1%. We remain well between the rising channel that looks a bit like an ascending wedge (bearish) triangle. The top of the channel is up around 390/400. The breakout from a huge symmetrical triangle in July 2024 with the start of the triangle dating back to 2015 is projected to send the TGD to new record highs at 600–650. The high of the past few years is at 416, set in July 2020, but we are getting close to that one. The all-time high was 455, set back in 2011. We are already through the point that suggests to us that we should see new all-time highs over 455. The TGD currently is down almost 17% from its all-time highs. That’s much better than the HUI, which remains down 49% from its all-time high. Different components account for the difference. The RSI is only at 63, so it has considerable room to move higher before becoming overbought. We expect to see the July 2020 high taken out on this move. Below 350 is a support zone, but under that the correction could be deeper.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Positive Curve, Low Inflation, Precious Safety

DisclaimerDavid Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. Continue reading →

One of the most important pieces of economic news has recently been the Fed’s 0.50% rate cut. Gold has therefore touched a high of $2600 per ounce. Some economists predict the $3000 mark is possible as early as mid-2025. Continue reading →

I’m gonna do a quick video on silver this weekend. For whatever reason, I’m seeing a lot of analysts trying to call a top in metals and I don’t understand why. I also see them trying to call a top in the stock market; not really understanding that either. Why is it that when something is making new highs, people want to try and call it a top? baffling to me. So, let me just go over this real quick. This intermediate degree rally broke out above this major resistance that had been in place for what three, three and a half years? The problem was that it came very late in this intermediate cycle. And the rule is that breakouts that occur late in a cycle usually don’t produce sustained moves. You need to break out that occurs early in a cycle to get a sustained move. If a normal cycle link, let’s say is 20-25 weeks, and you get a breakout on week 17 where you’re going to need some weeks for the declining phase of the cycle. And so there’s just not enough time to get a sustained move, generally speaking. So, that was the problem right here with this breakout above $30; it came very late in the intermediate cycle.

Website: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

Gary Savage is a 57-year-old retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. He is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also an Olympic weightlifting champion, and world record holder. Gary’s stock market investment philosophy and success owes to an unusually disciplined and keen understanding of market cycles combined with cutting edge sentiment data which allows him to anticipate and articulate how larger trends are likely to unfold. His analysis is almost always in strong contrast to what the public is thinking – and, provocatively, several steps ahead of the crowd. Gary’s renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas. Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a market newsletter available online by subscription only, and also the SMT free blog. Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — While the stock market rallied after the long-awaited Federal Reserve rate cut last week, there’s a sense of unease accompanying the gains.Most Read from BloombergReferring to the Fed’s shift to a bigger rate cut than had been expected even a week before the meeting, Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities, wrote in a note that the “‘fear of left-tail’ then self-fulfills the right-tail outcome” and that it’s “pushing the market out of recession trades, instead capitulating back into soft-landing” expectations.That change in market perception is in turn causing a forced re-risking and exposure grabbing, according to McElligott. Some is mechanical, with leveraged exchange-traded funds buying across products, while market-overwriting funds are forced to snap back up short call positions. Other investors who reduced risk after the August volatility spike now have to purchase at record highs — an uncomfortable prospect with a hotly contested presidential election, an uncertain macroeconomic picture and corporate earnings approaching.“A big re-positioning ultimately sets the table for the next wobble,” says McElligott, adding that more risk taking at some point necessitates downside hedging, which in turn changes the options market’s dealer positioning into something that acts as “accelerant fuel for ugly market events.”There are signs of that hedging in measures of volatility and skew, signaling that despite US equity gauges rallying to record highs after the Fed decision, investors are willing to pay more for protection. The Cboe VVIX Index — measuring the volatility of VIX options commonly used to guard against a steep selloff — remains about 20% above its level from the beginning of June. And Nations SkewDex, which gauges the relative cost of bearish put options, is also elevated.In other signs of tail-risk hedging, investors picked up buying of Cboe Volatility Index calls and call spreads — purchasing 85 and 90 calls in particular — and of S&P 500 Index (^SPX) put spreads. Going into the Fed meeting, non-commercial net-short VIX positions were the smallest since 2019.A pickup in hedging — while protecting individual investors — may leave options dealers short gamma, forcing them to sell more to stay balanced in a sharp market drop.The central bank’s half-point rate cut raised the question of whether the Fed’s hand had been simply forced, if the market’s big fear of a hard landing, best expressed during the August selloff, was scary enough for policymakers to make a big cut and reassure the soft landing narrative.And while all the technicalities of the market play their own game, the debate about how low rates can go and how stimulative a cut actually is has just begun.“We continue to believe that central banks will have less leeway to ease in 2025 than they and many investors believe,” wrote Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding. “Continued loose fiscal policy, persistent underlying inflation pressure and structural labor shortages are reasons against cutting rates too deeply.”Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

By Suzanne McGee and Carolina Mandl(Reuters) – Investment advisers are urging clients to dump hefty cash allocations now that the Federal Reserve has begun its much-anticipated interest-rate easing, a process they expect to limit the appeal of money-market funds in the coming months.Retail money-market funds have attracted $951 billion in inflows since 2022, when the Fed started its rate-hiking cycle to tame inflation, according to the Investment Company Institute, which represents investment funds. Their assets stood at $2.6 trillion on Sept. 18, roughly 80% higher than at the beginning of 2022.”As policy rates fall, the appeal of money-market funds will wane,” said Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by a larger-than-usual 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%, which makes holding cash in deposit accounts and cash-like instruments less appealing.”You’re going to have to shift everything … further up in the amount of risk you’re accepting,” said Jason Britton, Charleston-based founder of Reflection Asset Management, who manages or oversees around $5 billion in assets. “Money-market assets will have to become fixed-income holdings; fixed income will move into preferred stocks or dividend-paying stocks.”Money-market funds – ultra low-risk mutual funds that invest in short-term Treasury securities and other cash proxies – are a way to gauge investor interest in the nearly risk-free returns they offer. When short-term interest rates climb, money-market returns rise with them, increasing their appeal to investors.”Investors need to be aware that if they’re counting on a certain level of income from that portion of their portfolio, they may need to look at something different, or longer-term, to lock in rates and not be as exposed to the Fed lowering interest rates,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Wealth.Carol Schleif, chief investment officer of BMO Family Office, expects investors to keep some cash on the sidelines to wait for opportunities to buy stocks.It could take a week or more for initial reactions to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday to show up in money-market fund flows and other data, analysts note. While the Investment Company Institute reported an overall decline in money-market holdings in its last weekly report on Thursday, retail positions were little changed to higher and advisers said it has been tough to persuade that group to abandon their cash holdings.Christian Salomone, chief investment officer of Ballast Rock Private Wealth, said clients faced with lower returns on cash are eager to invest in something else.Still, “investors are stuck between a rock and a hard place,” Britton said, faced with a choice between investing in riskier assets or earning a smaller return from cash-like products.(Reporting by Suzanne McGee and Carolina Mandl; additional reporting by Davide Barbuscia; editing by Megan Davies and Rod Nickel) Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks extended a rally in global equities as jobs data backed the view that the US economy is headed for a soft landing. The yen gained as the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged.Most Read from BloombergThe MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia advanced, while mainland Chinese shares slipped. A gauge of global stocks set a fresh peak alongside US shares Thursday.The BOJ kept its monetary policy settings steady Friday, signaling it sees no need to hurry with interest rate hikes as it monitors financial markets after its July increase and hawkish views spooked investors. Data released earlier showed the nation’s key inflation gauge accelerated in August for a fourth consecutive month.“The focus now shifts to Governor Ueda’s press conference,” said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho in Tokyo. “Depending on the degree of this tone, if the hawkish stance is clearly conveyed to the market, the USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to trend downward.”Treasury yields were little changed on Friday, while an index of dollar strength was locked in a narrow range.A drop in US jobless claims to the lowest since May signaled the labor market remains healthy despite a slowdown in hiring. This added a boost to risk appetite and eased concerns the Fed may have been too slow to trim borrowing costs when it cut rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday.The equity gains on Thursday and Friday mark a “delayed euphoric reaction,” to the Fed but one that may retreat, according to Nick Ferres, Chief Investment Officer of Singapore-based Vantage Point Asset Management. “Valuation is already heroic and risk compensation is poor, particularly if the earnings cycle disappoints.”Over in China, the country is considering removing some of the largest remaining curbs on home purchases after previous measures failed to revive a moribund housing market, according to people familiar with the matter. That pushed the BI China Real Estate Owners and Developers Valuation Peer Group gauge higher.Meanwhile, the nation’s banks maintained their benchmark lending rates for September, as policymakers held off on further monetary stimulus while financial institutions struggle with record-low profit margins. The Securities Times reported on Friday that this week’s Fed rate cut has provided room for China to boost monetary and fiscal stimulus to support the economy.The European Union and China agreed to intensify discussions to avert looming tariffs on electric cars ahead of a deadline that’s only days away.Elsewhere, Wall Street banks are divided on the pace and extent of upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expect another 50 basis point reduction in November, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. anticipates 25 basis point cuts at each meeting from November to June next year.In Asia, Taiwan’s property and construction stocks dropped Friday following the central bank’s decision to increase the amount of funds banks must hold in reserve to cool the sizzling property market.Data set for release include inflation for Hong Kong and foreign exchange reserves for India.In commodities, gold steadied near a record high while oil was on track for the biggest weekly advance since April after the US rate cut.Key events this week:Japan rate decision, FridayEurozone consumer confidence, FridayCanada retail sales, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 12:52 p.m. Tokyo timeNikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 2%Japan’s Topix rose 1.4%Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4%Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.3%The Shanghai Composite fell 0.2%Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.2%Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changedThe euro was little changed at $1.1165The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 142.16 per dollarThe offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.0453 per dollarThe Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6819CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 0.8% to $63,565.84Ether rose 1.1% to $2,493.88BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.71%Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 0.850%Australia’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.92%CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude was little changedSpot gold rose 0.2% to $2,592.04 an ounceThis story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.–With assistance from Winnie Hsu.Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

By Lewis KrauskopfNEW YORK (Reuters) – As the Federal Reserve kicks off a long-awaited rate cutting cycle, some investors are wary that richly valued U.S. stocks may have already priced in the benefits of easier monetary policy, making it harder for markets to rise much further.Investors on Thursday cheered the first rate cuts in more than four years, sending the S&P 500 to fresh records a day after the Fed reduced borrowing costs by a hefty 50 basis points to shore up the economy.History supports such bullishness, especially if the Fed’s assurances of a still-healthy U.S. economy pan out. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 18% a year following the first rate cut in an easing cycle as long as the economy avoids recession, according to Evercore ISI data since 1970.But stock valuations have climbed in recent months, as investors anticipating Fed cuts piled in to equities and other assets seen as benefiting from looser monetary policy. That has left the S&P 500 trading at over 21 times forward earnings, well above its long-term average of 15.7 times. The index has climbed 20% this year, even as U.S. employment growth has been weaker than expected in recent months.As a result, the near-term “upside from just lower rates is somewhat limited,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management. “People just get a little bit nervous around being up 20% in an environment where the economy has cooled.”Other valuation measures, including price-to-book value and price-to-sales, also show stocks are well above their historic averages, Societe Generale analysts said in a note. U.S. equities are trading at five times their book value, for instance, compared with a long-term average of 2.6.”The current levels can be summarized in one word: expensive,” SocGen said.Lower rates stand to help stocks in several ways. Reduced borrowing costs are expected to increase economic activity, which can strengthen corporate earnings.A drop in rates also reduces yields on cash and fixed income, diminishing them as investment competition to equities. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has dropped about a full percentage point since April, to 3.7%, although it has ticked up this week.Lower rates also mean future corporate cash flows are more attractive, which often boosts valuations. But the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has already rebounded substantially after falling as low as 15.3 in late 2022 and 17.3 in late 2023, according to LSEG Datastream.”Equity valuations were pretty reasonably full going into this,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “It’s going to be hard to replicate the multiple expansion you just got over the last year or two over the next couple of years.”With any further increases in valuation expected to be limited, Miskin and others said earnings and economic growth will be key stock market drivers. S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 10.1% in 2024 and another 15% next year, according to LSEG IBES, with third-quarter earnings season starting next month set to test valuations.At the same time, there are signs that the promise of lower rates may have already drawn investors. While the S&P 500 has tended to be flat in the 12 months leading up to rate-cutting cycles, it is up nearly 27% in that period this time around, according to Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of macro and thematic research, who studied data since 1957.”You could argue that some of a potential ‘no recession easing cycle’ gains have been borrowed from the future this time,” Reid said in the note.To be sure, plenty of investors are undeterred by the elevated valuations and maintain a positive outlook for stocks.Valuations tend to be an unwieldy tool in determining when to buy and sell stocks – especially since momentum can keep markets rising or falling for months before they revert to their historical averages. The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was above 22 times for much of 2020 and 2021 and reached 25 during the dotcom bubble in 1999.Meanwhile, rate cuts near market highs tend to bode well for stocks a year later. The Fed has cut rates 20 times since 1980 when the S&P 500 was within 2% of an all-time high, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. The index has been higher a year later every time, with an average gain of 13.9%, Detrick said.”Historically, equity markets have performed well in periods when the Fed was cutting rates while the US economy was not in recession,” UBS Global Wealth Management analysts said in a note. “We expect this time to be no exception.”(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew Lewis) Continue reading →

Gold may be surging higher after breaking out from a huge five-month base, but I think the probability of gold seeing a sustained pullback from these levels has increased dramatically. Continue reading →