Category Archives: Investment

The United States and China are locked in an escalating economic conflict, and gold is emerging as a potential strategic asset. As the two superpowers vie for dominance, one radical U.S. strategy could involve revaluing the vast gold reserves held at Fort Knox—a move that would send shockwaves through the global monetary system and shift the balance of power. Continue reading →

The world’s most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, announced a bold decision – a rate cut of 50 basis points, marking the beginning of a “recalibration” of monetary policy.  Continue reading →

There is a similarity in how gold and silver trade at the same time period and also how they trade at similar milestones, despite the fact that those milestones are sometimes reached at different times.

This can cause silver or gold to be the leading indicator, depending on the particular milestone. However, for the most part, gold has been the leading indicator.

Here are some significant breakouts where gold was the leading indicator:

During the 1970s bull market, both silver and gold formed significant consolidation patterns after their 1974 highs. Gold was the first to break higher than its 1974 high in July 1978, whereas silver only broke higher than its 1974 high 28 weeks later.

The same occurred during the previous bull market. After peaking in March 2008, silver only cleared its peak 51 weeks after the gold breakout.

Both gold and silver formed similar consolidations after their August 2020 peaks. Gold already broke higher than its peak in March of this year. This was a clear indication that it is likely a matter of time before silver would also break higher.

Silver is now close to making a similar breakout about 32 weeks after the gold breakout.

By the time silver catches up with gold, there is often already good momentum in the market. This often makes silver’s breakouts more decisive. This translates into the best rallies (especially for silver), as was the case after the February 1979 silver breakout as well as for the October 2010 silver breakout.

So, if the silver breakout is confirmed, we are likely to see even more intense rallies than those of 2020 for both silver and gold.

Furthermore, gold is already in a sweet spot after the major breakout in March. This is a major signal and leading indicator for the coming run to silver (and the silver breakout). Learn more at my premium gold and silver blog. For the macro gold breakout, see here:

Warm regards

Hubert Moolman

For more of this kind of analysis, subscribe to my Premium Service. I also have a Silver Fractal Analysis Report that provides more insight regarding silver market.
Hubert Moolman is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver . Hubert is the owner of HGM and Associates and HGM Research. Hubert’s work is regularly published in the premier gold and silver publications such as: Kitco.com, GoldSeek.com, SilverSeek.com, Mineweb.com, Resourceinvestor.com, Seekingalpha.com and many more.

Investment Research Services – Gold and Silver Research

HGM Research provides a world-class research service, covering the Gold and Silver markets, JSE Gold Miners, HUI and other selected markets. We offer a free newsletter as well as a premium (pay per article service) covering the above financial markets. We are known for our proprietary Fractal Chart Analysis. Our Fractal Analysis helps us to identify great investment opportunities. We would also consider requests for research, covering specific companies traded on a public listed exchange or research of specific global or local indices.

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India’s gold imports hit a 3.5-year high in August, surging 58% YoY due to strong demand and tariff cuts. With the festive season ahead, 2024 demand could surpass 800 tonnes, the highest since 2015. Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Key US Treasury yields are back at 4%, a level not seen since August, after a blowout jobs report forced traders to reassess the outlook for monetary policy.Most Read from BloombergBonds dropped Monday, extending a plunge late last week after surprisingly robust September payrolls data undercut chances for another big reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year yield rose four basis points to 4.01%, while the two-year yield was up eight basis points to 4%.Listen to the Here’s Why podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.The moves reflect swirling doubts over the Fed’s next move. Swaps no longer fully price a 25-basis-point reduction for the Fed’s next decision in November, and for the first time since Aug. 1 there are fewer than 50 basis points of cuts implied through year-end.“We’ve expected higher yields but anticipated a somewhat gradual adjustment,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including George Cole wrote in a note. “The extent of strength in the September jobs report may have accelerated that process, with renewed debate on the extent of policy restriction, and, in turn, the likely depth of Fed cuts.”European bonds followed US Treasuries lower. The German 10-year yield rose four basis points to 2.25%, the highest in over a month, while its UK equivalent rose six basis points to 4.19%.Bond Traders Buckle Up for ‘No Landing’ After Jobs SurpriseThe selloff following Friday’s jobs data is just the latest twist in a year that’s forced investors to recalibrate their expectations for the economy and Fed policy numerous times. US services activity also caught traders off guard last week, exceeding all forecasts, and casting further doubt on theories that the economy was deteriorating more rapidly than feared.The underperformance in shorter-dated US Treasuries, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, has left a key part of the yield curve on the brink of inverting once again. Historically, bond yield curves slope upward with longer notes paying higher yields, a norm that was disrupted for almost two years as the Fed hiked rates aggressively. The curve started to normalize last month, with two-year yields falling back below 10-year ones.Traders are looking ahead to a series of speeches from Fed policymakers for further clues on the path for rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Fed Board member Michele Bowman speak at different events on Monday.The market is also awaiting US inflation data later this week. The consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in September, its smallest gain in three months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said projections issued by officials, alongside their September rate decision, point toward quarter-point rate cuts at the final two meetings of the year.“It doesn’t need a recession to get inflation to tolerable levels, so the Fed is easing policy without waiting for genuine economic weakness,” said Dario Perkins, managing director at TS Lombard. “By now, everyone should have realized the Fed is cutting rates pre-emptively.”(Updates with Fed pricing in paragraph three.)Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

In a recent video by Blue Line Futures LLC, renowned financial analyst Phil Sreible, delves into the intricate dynamics of the global commodities market, providing valuable insights for investors. Continue reading →

BTC’s options expiring on Oct 5 trade at higher implied volatility (IV) compared to Oct. 25 options.The so-called IV kink points to a unusually volatile weekend.Traders seem to bracing for price turbulence post Friday’s NFP and potential retaliatory strikes by Israel.The bitcoin {{BTC}} bull run since October last year has seen mostly quiet weekends, but that’s about to change, according to a key metric.At press time, bitcoin’s “implied volatility term structure” indicates bigger price swings on Saturday (Oct. 5) than on days leading up to Oct. 25, according to Deribit options data tracked by Arbelos Markets.The term structure is a graphical representation of options-determined implied or expected volatilities (IV) at different expiration dates. It is usually upward sloping, with longer duration options trading pricer in terms of implied volatility relative to short duration ones.However, as of writing, the curve exhibited a kink, with options expiring on Oct. 5 trading at an annualized IV of 51.44%, notably higher than options expiring on Oct. 6, Oct. 11, Oct. 18, and Oct. 25.In other words, traders are pricing more significant price swings for Saturday, possibly anticipating increased volatility following Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release and amid geopolitical tensions, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of Arbelos Markets.”There’s a very noticeable kink in the vol curve – Friday (Oct. 4) is trading around 39 vol and Saturday (Oct. 5) is trading 51 vol. The market is pricing in a risk premium from nonfarm payrolls data, but more importantly, some probability of an Israeli retaliation post-Rosh Hashanah,” Lim told CoinDesk.Implied volatilities for BTC options with different expirations. (Joshua Lim/Deribit)Focus on payrollsThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the NFP on Friday at 12:30 UTC. Per FXStreet, the data is expected to show that the economy added 140,000 jobs in September, following August’s weaker-than-expected increase of 142,000. The jobless rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings matching August’s pace of 3.8%.According to ING, risks are skewed in favor of hawkish repricing of 25 basis points Fed rate cuts in November and December and dollar strength unless the data misses expectations big margin.The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) last month, torching a rally in risk assets, including BTC. Currently, markets expect at least another 50 bps cut by the year-end.”The pricing for year-end Fed funds continues to largely embed a 50 bps cut in either November or December, meaning room for further re-alignment with the Fed’s less dovish rhetoric and consequently upside risks for the dollar. We sense that the bar for a dollar-negative reaction to U.S. data today and tomorrow is probably higher after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent pushback against 50 bps reductions,” ING said in a note to clients.A stronger dollar often weighs over risk assets, including BTC and traditional safe havens like gold.Volatile middle east situationOn Oct 1, Iran fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, ratcheting up tensions and risk of a full-blown war and leading to a broad-based risk aversion. BTC dropped over 4% on the same, eventually testing the $60,000 support.Per ING, investors are now on high alert, awaiting Israel’s retaliation against Iran, leading to a rally in crude prices and a stronger dollar index.A potential action over the weekend, when traditional markets are closed, could see both traditional and crypto traders express their views in the digital assets market, leading to an unusually volatile weekend. Continue reading →

Gold prices declined about 0.5% to just below $2,650 an ounce after Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin spoke during an economic conference Wednesday and said there is “still work to do on inflation.” Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — European and US stock futures gained in line with Asian equities ahead of US jobs data that will identify the path ahead for interest rates. An oil price rally eased after Middle East tensions led to the biggest one-day jump in almost a year.Most Read from BloombergEuro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2%, and contracts on the S&P 500 advanced 0.1%. Equities in Japan and South Korea rose while markets in mainland China were shut for a holiday. A gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong advanced as traders assessed its recent rally’s sustainability and await details of fiscal stimulus and holiday spending.An index of dollar declined marginally, but is still poised for the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months as traders pared back expectations for aggressive US rate cuts. Treasuries were flat after selling off on Thursday, increasing yields to levels not seen since September.West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude eased slightly after each rose more than 5% to a one-month high on Thursday. Earlier gains came after puzzling comments from President Joe Biden, who told reporters the US was discussing whether to support potential Israeli strikes against Iranian oil facilities.Investors are concerned that, should Israel strike critical Iranian assets, the Islamic Republic will lash out and escalate the conflict, dragging in more countries and potentially disrupting global energy shipments. Israel said it bombed more than a dozen Hezbollah targets in Beirut on Thursday.“The market fear is that there could be supply disruptions coming out of Iran,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, on Bloomberg Television. “Demand for oil should remain healthy, but at the same time the risk to the supply side is very much there.”The initial buying frenzy in Chinese stocks after Beijing’s stimulus is waning as traders take profit and await policy details and holiday spending data for further confidence. Invesco Ltd.’s chief investment officer for Hong Kong and China, Raymond Ma, who predicted double-digit returns in Chinese equities this year, said there are signs the surge has gone too far for some stocks. Still, strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc and BlackRock Inc. are among Wall Street heavyweights turning bullish on the once beaten-down market.The yen strengthened 0.6% against the dollar, paring some of its recent losses from earlier this week after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had said the nation isn’t ready for another interest-rate increase.Amid all the geopolitical uncertainty, investors are looking for further signals on the health of the US economy, with the monthly payrolls report due on Friday. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% in September while payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000.“If the unemployment rate ticks up, I wouldn’t be surprised that markets would shift back toward expecting 50 basis points and then it is a question of how the Fed may react,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said on Bloomberg Television.Other economic signs showed robustness in the US economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services posted its best reading since February 2023, ahead of Wall Street estimates. Applications for US unemployment benefits rose slightly last week to a level that is consistent with a limited number of layoffs. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, were little changed from the previous week.“The US dollar could stay supported on safe haven demand amid Middle East risks, and more so if US payrolls surprise on the upside,” Wei Liang Chang, a foreign-exchange and credit strategist at DBS Bank Ltd., wrote in a research note. “The yen may be a beneficiary too, as geopolitical risks restrain appetite for carry trades”Key events this week:Some of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:34 a.m. London timeNikkei 225 futures (OSE) were little changedJapan’s Topix rose 0.3%Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7%Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.2%Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2%Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changedThe euro was little changed at $1.1030The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 146.11 per dollarThe offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0571 per dollarThe Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6846The British pound was little changed at $1.3134CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 0.6% to $61,156.99Ether rose 1.5% to $2,376.85BondsCommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $73.62 a barrelSpot gold rose 0.4% to $2,666.99 an ounceThis story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

Interest rates, residual factors, price momentum, geopolitical risk, economic expansion — if you can name it, it can probably influence gold prices. Continue reading →

Copper’s (HG1:COM) bull market is nearly a quarter of a century old, and the prospects are for higher prices over the coming years. Since the November 2001 60.40 cents per pound low, copper has traded in a nearly perfect bullish path of higher lows and higher highs. Continue reading →

Gold prices steady as investors await key U.S. economic data, with eyes on labor reports and Fed’s moves. Geopolitical tensions and strong demand continue to support the metal’s long-term outlook. Continue reading →