Category Archives: Investment

There’s a frantic global scramble for bullion as major dealers rush to move gold into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs.

Around a month ago, gold and silver markets were being roiled by the possibility that imported gold and silver could be subject to tariffs announced by the newly elected Trump Administration. This uncertainty prompted banks and hedge funds to scramble to cover short positions. 

Since then, ongoing speculation about these potential tariffs has fueled continued volatility in the gold and silver markets, particularly as the January 20th inauguration of President Trump approached. 

In addition, a frenzied global rush for gold and silver bullion has unfolded, with major dealers racing to move metal into the U.S. ahead of any potential tariff imposition.

The disruption in the precious metals market has been evident in the behavior of front-month futures contracts for silver (March) and gold (February) compared to their spot prices. 

Futures prices have been climbing sharply above spot prices, reflecting the urgency of banks and funds scrambling to mitigate risk by closing out short positions, driving gold and silver prices higher in the process. Typically, front-month futures and spot prices move in close alignment, but in recent weeks, they have frequently diverged in an anomalous manner.

For instance, in the days leading up to the inauguration, the premium for front-month silver futures surged from 56 cents per ounce to $1.12, far above the typical 14-cent range. 

On the morning of January 20th, the premium dropped sharply from 88 cents to just 52 cents after the Trump administration released a memo stating that broad tariffs would not be imposed on Day 1 of his presidency. Instead, the administration announced plans to first conduct reviews of trade and currency imbalances. 

However, the premium rebounded sharply later that day when President Trump suggested he might impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

Similar to silver, the premium on front-month gold futures surged from $12 per ounce to $44 per ounce ahead of the inauguration, far surpassing the typical $10 premium. 

However, it plummeted to as low as $8 after the Trump administration released the memo announcing that tariffs would not be enacted on Day 1 of the presidency. I anticipate continued volatility in gold and silver futures premiums as the market speculates and reacts to news surrounding potential tariffs that could impact imported gold and silver.

A recent Bloomberg article highlighted that gold lease rates in London have surged to their highest levels in decades amid a frantic global scramble for bullion. Major dealers are rushing to move gold into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs. 

Gold lease rates represent the return demanded by holders of bullion in London’s vaults for lending their gold to other buyers. While these rates typically hover near zero, they have recently spiked to an annualized 3.5%, reflecting the mounting urgency and heightened leasing activity.

Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader and managing director at JPMorgan Chase & Co. explained in the Bloomberg article that “The markets are in total dislocation” and that “There seems to be a scarcity of available stocks in both gold and silver.” 

In a LinkedIn post, Gottlieb noted that since November 7, 7.4 million ounces of gold have been delivered to CME Group warehouses in the United States.

The rush for physical gold and silver has the potential to escalate into a squeeze scenario, driving both metals significantly higher. This scramble already seems to be contributing to gold’s nascent breakout:

Silver also appears poised for a bullish move, and I believe it will see a significant surge once it breaks out of its recent consolidation pattern, much like gold’s recent breakout from its triangle pattern:

The start of Trump’s presidency has ushered in significant uncertainty and volatility, but so far, it has proven favorable for gold and silver by sparking a scramble for physical bullion. 

Now that both the election and inauguration are behind us, I believe gold and silver are well-positioned to resume their bull markets, which were abruptly disrupted by the November 5th election, causing a sharp but short-lived pullback. 

As I’ve maintained all along, this pullback was a temporary buying opportunity for stackers to accumulate at lower prices—a prediction that has proven accurate and will likely continue to hold true as 2025 shapes up to be another strong year for gold and silver. Continue reading →

Financial markets expert Chris Vermeulen, founder of Technical Traders, warns of a potential 35-55% stock market correction. In a recent interview … Continue reading →

We could be setting up for a significant squeeze in the gold and silver markets. 

Last week, Money Metals reported uncertainty in the gold and silver markets due to worries about tariffs on precious metals entering the United States. We’re seeing signs that concern is growing, creating an interesting dynamic in the London precious metals market.

Owners of gold in London vaults can loan their metal on a short-term basis. Normally, the return on a lease is close to zero. But last week, lease rates suddenly surged to over 3.5 percent on an annualized basis. The last time lease rates rose to this level was 2002.

This surge in lease rates signals increasing demand for London gold in London vaults.

As Bloomberg explained it, “A spike in so-called lease rates in London this week signals that an increasingly frenetic global hunt for bullion is underway as major dealers seek to shift metal to the U.S. before any tariffs are imposed.”

We’re seeing similar dynamics in the silver market, and according to Bloomberg, “some analysts and traders warn that there may not be enough freely available metal to meet dealers’ needs.”

A former precious metals trader at JPMorgan told Bloomberg, “The markets are in total dislocation.”

“There seems to be a scarcity of available stocks in both gold and silver.”

This is because metal is shifting to the U.S. to get ahead of any potential tariffs.

Gold and Silver Movements Due to Price Disparities

With tariff worries, the prices of gold and silver traded on the New York futures market have surged above global markets. This is incentivizing the movement of metal into the United States. 

As we reported last week, “Traders are buying metal in London, simultaneously selling in the NY futures market (and pocketing a tidy profit), withdrawing the metal from London vaults, and transporting the metal to the U.S. to deliver onto the exchange to close out the futures position.” 

Under normal market conditions, big banks that deal in bullion such as JPMorgan and HSBC, along with hedge funds and high-frequency trading firms, serve to balance prices between New York and London. For instance, when prices rise on the New York COMEX, traders sell those futures contracts and buy lower-priced London futures, earning a small profit. These “arbitrage trades” tend to hold the two trading centers roughly in balance.

But as Bloomberg explained, “If the spreads keep rising, investors can incur heavy losses as they seek to unwind their positions, and their efforts to buy their New York futures contracts back risk sending prices spiraling even higher.”

Meanwhile, big banks can get out of arbitrage trades by physically moving metal between the trading hubs. That appears to be happening today.

The last time we saw this kind of market displacement was in the early days of the pandemic.

Citigroup head of commodities research Max Layton explained it this way to Bloomberg:

“If you’re a trader and you can find someone who’s willing to sell you outside the U.S. at a discount to the US price, and then ship it to the US on an airplane and sell it for $40 more, you’re going to do that. So of course there’s a scramble.”

The problem here is obvious. As gold moves out of London into New York, at some point, the gold and silver holdings across the pond will be depleted, creating a squeeze, as we explained last week.

“This dynamic is having the effect of draining London vaults of gold and silver at an unusually fast rate –and at some point, these lower levels of vaulted metal in London could create price dislocations in that major market too. Those who have short positions in the New York market are in the process of getting squeezed, especially if they are having trouble getting their hands on physical metal to deliver into their short positions. Or get it into the right form.”

A Potential Silver Squeeze

This type of squeeze is likely to show up in the silver market first due to its smaller size, and as Bloomberg pointed out, we’re starting to see the dynamics lining up for a silver squeeze that could cause the prices to spike.

TD Securities senior strategist Daniel Ghali told Bloomberg that the threat of tariffs is already “accelerating the timeline to depletion” of the free-floating silver stock in London. He projects a significant supply crunch this year despite a slowdown in demand growth. 

Keep in mind that Ghali’s projection of “slowing demand growth” is coming off record industrial demand, and we’ve already seen market deficits for four straight years. 

Based on projections, industrial silver demand set a record last year of over 700 million ounces. The combination of surging demand and the modest increase in supply will result in a projected physical deficit in 2024 for the fourth consecutive year. At 182 million ounces, this year’s deficit is little changed from 2023 and still elevated by historical standards.  

In other words, even if demand slows somewhat in 2025, we’re still looking at a significant silver offtake.

Since mid-December, COMEX silver stocks have increased by more than 22 million ounces as London stocks have reached critically low levels. Adding to the problem, tepid mine output over the last four years has pressured above-ground silver stocks. 

Keep in mind that silver stocks in London are also tied to ETFs and over-the-counter trading. Based on number-crunching by Bloomberg, only 50 million ounces of silver remained as of the end of December before withdrawals of readily available silver dip below the average trading volume.

Ghali called this a “critically low cushion” and said it creates a compelling setup for “explosive” price peaks to unlock inventories from unconventional sources.

It remains unclear whether tariffs will apply to gold and silver, but this is definitely a dynamic to keep your eyes on. Continue reading →

[embedded content]We Will See $50 Silver This Time | https://www.themorganreport.com
In this interview with David Morgan from The Morgan Report, we discuss his outlook on silver prices for 2025, targeting a potential move to $40 with key resistance at $33. Morgan explains the unique dynamics between retail and industrial silver markets, noting retail demand is currently weak while industrial buyers face tight supplies. He shares insights on the historical Silver Users Association and current market pressures, including concerns about potential tariffs affecting industrial users. The conversation also covers the impact of AI and robotics on society, with Morgan drawing from his background in aerospace to discuss technological advancement. He also mentions his upcoming documentary “Silver Sunrise” which explores the spiritual side of money and banking system control.
Watch this video on We Will See $50 Silver This Time, then please share with your friends and family on social media and use the caption: We Will See $50 Silver This Time.Market Analysis — Investing — Trading Methods At The Morgan Report — Starting As Low As $50 | http://www.themorganreport.com/join.
Starting your own precious metals savings program is an easy way to automatically save in gold and silver. This makes it easy to maintain a disciplined program for increasing your ownership of history’s most proven stores of value. Learn more here.

Let My Passion Create Your Wealth.
I’ve Been Helping My Subscribers Weather the Current Economic Mess. Now I Invite You to Join My Growing Circle of Successful Investors.
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation, and asset protection.
Thus was born The Morgan Report – since then we’ve helped 11,000-plus members scattered over the globe in every continent and over 100,000+ e-newsletter subscribers have read our weekly e-newsletter — This Week’s View from The Morgan Report.
Through our publication, The Morgan Report, we provide you with ways to achieve greater financial security and wealth in all sorts of environments.
Learn more and become an insider for The Morgan Report, click the link below…
http://www.themorganreport.com/join 
Special Riches In Resources Free Report
Because there is a 100% failure rate of ALL fiat money throughout history, you will learn what to do by obtaining your Free Report. Just enter your first name, your primary email address and click the Get Special Report button below.

Our mission statement reads…
“To teach and empower people to understand the benefits of an honest monetary system.” Today’s monetary system is based upon a lie. The lie is that you can get something for nothing, or perhaps more simply stated, wealth can be printed. History has shown throughout 5000 years that whenever a country has tried to maintain this illusion (lie), failure has been the result. We invite you to learn more about what The Morgan Report can do for you. Click on the Learn More About The Morgan Report button now!
Learn More About The Morgan Report *
   Continue reading →

Shawn Khunkhun, CEO of Dolly Varden Silver, predicts silver will significantly outperform gold in 2025, citing supply shortages and growing … Continue reading →

By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) – After two years of progress on inflation and surprisingly persistent economic growth, the Federal … Continue reading →

Clive Thompson recently warned in an interview with Liberty and Finance of a looming crisis in government debt, urging investors … Continue reading →

Goehring & Rozencwajg, a leading investment firm, predicts a surge in gold demand driven by central bank buying and renewed … Continue reading →

By Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper and Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House … Continue reading →

Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders. Continue reading →