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Precious Metals News
- Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Market Drops as Dollar Strengthens – Is a Deeper Pullback Ahead? - FXEmpire April 27, 2025
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Silver Market Records Fourth Straight Supply Deficit Amidst Record Industrial Demand
The official numbers are in, and industrial demand for silver set a fourth consecutive record in 2024.
Despite record industrial offtake, total silver demand declined by 3 percent to 1.16 billion ounces last year, primarily due to weak investment demand, according to the World Silver Survey 2025 published by the Silver Institute.
Even with the slight decline, demand outstripped the silver supply for the fourth consecutive year. The structural market deficit came in at 148.9 million ounces. That drove the four-year market shortfall to 678 million ounces, the equivalent of 10 months of mining supply in 2024.
The silver price remained well below its all-time high throughout 2024, creating the impression that it underperformed. However, it had a pretty solid year.
The White Metal kicked off 2024 at $23.99 per ounce and closed out the year at $28.91, a 20.5 percent gain.
Industrial Silver Demand Drives Higher
Industrial demand for silver hit 680.5 million ounces last year. According to the Silver Institute, record electronics and electrical demand underpinned the growth.
“This reflected structural gains in the green economy flowing through from the PV and automotive sectors and grid infrastructure development. Demand also received a boost from AI-related applications.”
China accounted for the largest share of industrial gains with a 7 percent increase. There was also strong industrial demand in India, with offtake increasing by 4 percent.
Demand in the West was more tepid. U.S. industrial silver demand dropped by 6 percent last year, and most European countries also reported modest declines.
Demand for silver in solar panels accounted for nearly half of the total silver demand in the electronics sector.
Silver is the best conductor of electricity of all metals at room temperature. That makes it a vital input in the production of solar panels. With demand for solar power increasing along with the amount of silver used in each panel, analysts believe that solar panel production will consume increasingly large amounts of silver in the future.
According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20 percent of the current annual silver supply by 2027.
By 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98 percent of the current global silver reserves.
The green energy sector is also essentially recession-proof because it is being driven, incentivized, and in some cases directly funded by governments around the world.
Silver Jewelry Demand Grows as Investment Remains Tepid
Silver jewelry demand grew by 3 percent to 208.7 ounces in 2024.
According to the Silver Institute, India accounted for the bulk of these gains, driven by an import duty cut, a healthy rural economy, and the ongoing rise in purities.
The Silver Institute reported that improving exports to key Western countries also lifted silver jewelry demand. For instance, fabrication in Thailand grew by 13 percent.
“Western consumption was broadly steady, as positives, such as branded silver’s gains, balanced negatives, including cost-of-living issues.”
By contrast, China reported a third consecutive year of losses due to its challenging economic backdrop.
Silverware demand fell by 2 percent to a 3-year low of 54.2 million ounces. This was primarily due to soft demand in India, where rising prices put a strain on the gifting segment.
The biggest drag on silver demand was in the investment sector. Coin and net bar demand plunged by 22 percent to a 5-year low of 190.9 million ounces.
Western markets reported the biggest sag in demand, with double-digit declines across the board. The steepest drop was in the U.S., where silver investment demand crashed by 46 percent. According to the Silver Institute, profit-taking at higher prices, market saturation, and optimism about a Trump presidency created headwinds for silver in the U.S.
India was the bright spot for silver investment, with demand growing by 21 percent. Bullish price expectations and the import duty cut buoyed the market.
Silver Supply
Silver mine output was steady, rising by 0.9 percent to 819.7 ounces.
Lead and zinc mines continued to produce the most silver globally, however, output was flat year on year. In contrast, silver production from gold mines recorded the strongest growth, up 12 percent to 13.9 million ounces, a three-year high.
Mexico ranked as the top silver-producing country, followed by China, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile.
With the silver price rising, recycling rose 6 percent, hitting a 12-year high of 193.9 million ounces. Continue reading →
Silver Industrial Demand Reached a Record 680.5 Moz in 2024
Silver industrial demand rose 4 percent in 2024 to 680.5 million ounces (Moz), reaching a new record high for the fourth consecutive year. Demand continued to benefit from structural gains linked to the green economy, including investment in grid infrastructure, vehicle electrification, and photovoltaic (PV) applications. Demand was further boosted by end-uses related to artificial intelligence (AI), which drove growth in consumer electronics shipments.
Overall, global silver demand exceeded silver supply for the fourth consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 148.9 Moz in 2024. Notably, during 2021-2024, the combined deficit reached 678 Moz, equivalent to 10 months of global mine supply in 2024.
These and other key aspects of the 2024 silver market are examined in the World Silver Survey 2025, released today by the Silver Institute. The 88-page Survey also provides an outlook for the silver market in 2025. The Survey was researched and produced for the Silver Institute by Metals Focus, the London-based independent, precious metals consultancy.
Key findings include:
Silver Demand
Total silver demand fell by 3 percent to 1.16 billion ounces (Boz) in 2024. The decline was primarily driven by weakness in physical investment and slightly lower silverware and photographic demand. The drop was partially offset by the continued strength of industrial demand, which enjoyed another record year. In keeping with 2023, growth was underpinned by record electronics & electrical demand. This reflected structural gains in the green economy flowing through from the PV and automotive sectors and grid infrastructure development. Demand also received a boost from AI-related applications. While thrifting and substitution remained limited across most sectors, notable advancements within the PV segment led to a sharp reduction in silver loadings.
On a regional breakdown, China accounted for the largest share of industrial gains, with a 7 percent rise, while India recorded a 4 percent increase. In contrast, Europe saw weaker demand across most countries in the region (except for one-off gains in the UK), while US demand declined by 6 percent in 2024.
Demand for brazing alloys rose by 3 percent, supported by growth in key industries, such as automotive and aerospace. Meanwhile, demand in the ‘other industrial’ category rose by 4 percent, despite a slight drop in ethylene oxide (EO) demand.
Silver jewelry fabrication grew by 3 percent to 208.7 Moz. India accounted for the bulk of these gains, thanks to such factors as the import duty cut, a healthy rural economy, and the ongoing rise in purities. Improving exports to key Western countries also lifted fabrication in Thailand by 13 percent. Western consumption was broadly steady as positives, such as branded silver’s gains, balanced negatives including cost-of-living issues. By contrast, China saw a third consecutive year of losses amid a challenging economic backdrop.
Silverware demand declined by 2 percent to a three-year low of 54.2 Moz. The drop was driven by softer demand in India, where elevated prices weighed on the gifting segment.
Coin and net bar demand fell 22 percent in 2024 to a five-year low of 190.9 Moz, led by double-digit declines across all major Western markets. The steepest drop was seen in the US (-46%), due to profit-taking at higher prices, market saturation, and investors’ reaction to Trump’s election. In Germany, the lingering effects of the 2023 VAT hike on certain silver products continued to weigh on demand. In contrast, India stood out with a 21 percent surge, thanks to bullish price expectations and the import duty cut.
Silver Supply
Global silver mine production rose by 0.9 percent to 819.7 Moz, underpinned by increased output from lead/zinc mines in Australia and the recovery of supply from Mexico, as Newmont’s Peñasquito mine returned to full production. This was supplemented by additional growth from Bolivia and the US. Lower output from Chile, down 8.8 Moz y/y, partially offset this growth.
Silver production from lead/zinc mines remained the dominant source of silver, but output was flat y/y. In contrast, silver production from gold mines recorded the strongest growth, up 12% y/y to 13.9 Moz, a three-year high.
Last year, Mexico remained the leading silver mine-producing country, followed by China, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile.
Recycling rose 6 percent in 2024, reaching a 12-year high of 193.9 Moz. Industrial scrap saw the most significant increase in weight terms, mainly led by the processing of spent EO catalysts. In percentage terms, the highest gain came from silverware recycling, which climbed by 11 percent as firmer silver prices and cost-of-living issues encouraged selling in Western markets.
Outlook for Silver in 2025
Total demand this year is forecast to fall marginally to 1.15 Boz. Following a series of all-time records in recent years, industrial fabrication will remain flat in 2025, as the gains in silver’s use in PV offtake ease. Both jewelry and silverware are expected to weaken, but a modest recovery in coin and bar demand in some Western markets should largely mitigate losses.
Total silver supply is projected to increase by 1.5 percent, led by higher mine production. As a result, the silver market is anticipated to remain in a deficit, but this gap will be a four-year low of 117.6 Moz.
As outlined in World Silver Survey 2025, the impact of US tariffs will be a key risk to silver demand this year. An extended period of elevated tariffs, or a further escalation of global trade wars, could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and sharply lower global GDP growth. These will weigh on industrial, jewelry, and silverware demand, though physical investment could benefit from rising safe-haven purchases.
Silver Price
The average silver price jumped by 21 percent in 2024. The start of 2025 saw further gains, with silver exceeding $34 by mid-March amid rising uncertainties surrounding US trade and foreign policy. Thereafter, the silver price has weakened, following the US tariff announcements. Even so, as of April 7, the silver price was still up four percent for this year-to-date.
About the World Silver Survey and Ordering Information
The Silver Institute has published this annual report on the global silver market since 1990 to bring reliable supply and demand statistics to market participants and the public. Metals Focus independently researched and produced the 35th edition of World Silver Survey. The report was sponsored by 22 companies from North and South America, Asia, and Europe.
A complimentary PDF version of World Silver Survey 2025 can be downloaded from the Institute’s website at www.silverinstitute.org. In North America, hard copies may be purchased from the Institute’s website; for copies outside North America, please contact Metals Focus at www.metalsfocus.com. In addition, members of the media and government officials can request complimentary hard copies of the Survey directly from the Silver Institute.
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