Category Archives: Investment

Silver drops 5%, gold 3% as Trump wins election, sparking a broader commodities slide. A spike in 10-year yields and … Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks gained with European and US equity futures as investors positioned for a second Donald Trump presidency … Continue reading →

Could Donald Trump’s election put the brakes on gold’s rise? In 2016, the Republican candidate’s victory in the US presidential … Continue reading →

 Gold and silver have been on a tremendous run in 2024. In fact, they are the two best-performing assets this year.

As of the end of October, silver was up by 42.4 percent, and gold was up by 33.7 percent. This compares to a 24 percent gain in the NASDAQ, the best-performing stock index.

Gold Shining Bright

Gold was up another 4 percent in dollar terms in October. It also charted gains in other major currencies.

Looking more closely at gold’s performance this year, the yellow metal has posted 39 all-time highs so far in 2024. The only year Gold set more records was 1979 when it broke its own record 57 times.

Gold hit 38 record highs in both 1972 and 2011.

The World Gold Council noted some differences between then and now.

“Previous record-setting years have been accompanied by strong investment demand. Gold ETF inflows in Western markets are very late to the party this year, and retail investment demand has not picked up much either.”

In 1980, gold established its all-time inflation-adjusted high. That record also fell this year.  

Gold has continued its upward trajectory despite the positive performance of risk assets, a relatively strong dollar, and increasing Treasury yields, all of which typically create headwinds for the yellow metal.

The World Gold Council noted the lack of media hype despite gold’s stellar performance.“Media fervor is not as visible today as it was during 2020 when gold made its first new all-time-highs for nigh-on a decade, suggesting perhaps that this time, sentiment has not gotten carried away.”

Trading in the East has provided the biggest catalyst during the gold bull run. World Gold Council analysis reveals that gold’s price action generally occurred during late Asian/early European trading hours. 

“This at least partly explains the increasingly frequent disconnect between gold’s return and its usually reliable – yet U.S.-centric – short-term drivers of rates and the U.S. dollar.”

Conversely, U.S. and European trading hours tended toward more price volatility. The World Gold Council noted that this is “consistent with the narrative of emerging market investors and central bank buying helping to drive prices higher even as trading in Western markets, as it tends to do, creates the most short-term noise.”

Despite the ever-increasing price, gold demand set a third-quarter record. Including over-the-counter (OTC) sales, gold demand came in at 1,313 tons in Q3, a 5 percent year-on-year increase.  

The World Gold Council cites several factors that should propel the gold bull run forward. 

“The conditions remain for demand to continue to impress, including elevated geopolitical risk, overvalued equity markets, low Western investor gold ownership, and central bank buying.” 

Silver Lost In Gold’s Spotlight

Although silver has outperformed gold, it is widely viewed as a laggard and has remained in the shadow of gold’s spotlight. While gold has set multiple records this year, silver remains far below its all-time high.

Meanwhile, the gold-silver ratio remains mired above 80-1, signaling that silver is historically underpriced compared to gold this year.

This would seem to indicate that silver is poised to run higher.

Many long-term investors still view silver more as an industrial commodity. Industrial demand accounts for more than half of silver offtake. With this in mind, it is important to note that industrial demand is booming. Industrial offtake of 654.4 million ounces set a record in 2023. Analysts expect industrial demand to be in record territory again in 2024. 

Meanwhile, robust demand and lagging silver mine output have resulted in market deficits for three straight years, with demand expected to outstrip supply again this year.

The technical picture also appears to be bullish silver.

If we look at a 50-year price chart for silver, we see a very distinctive pattern known as a “secular cup and handle.”

This is a long-term bullish pattern. You can see the “cup” with the twin highs of around $50 per ounce in 1980 and 2011. Following the 2011 peak, we see a sharp decline in the price followed by a consolidation “handle.” 

A handle pattern on the chart of a stock or commodity often precedes a breakout.

This cup-and-handle pattern has played out over an extremely long timeframe. Historically, longer patterns portend bigger breakouts with a broader base, signaling a bigger upside case.

Gold followed a similar long-term pattern, resolving with a breakout to new all-time highs last year.

If you’re still bullish on gold, you should also be bullish on silver.

While silver’s industrial applications make it much more volatile than gold, it tends to track with the yellow metal over time. In fact, silver has historically outperformed gold in a gold bull run. The backdrop for gold investment looks solid moving into 2025. Continue reading →

Dow Jones futures jumped early Wednesday in a strong stock market election reaction to former President Donald Trump winning a return to the White House. Republicans have retaken the Senate and may have the edge in the House.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures and Treasury yields also rallied, while bitcoin hit a record high. Trump-exposed stocks Tesla (TSLA) and Trump Media & Technology (DJT) were huge winners.
AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) edged higher, eyeing a buy point.

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Stocks Rally Into Election Results; Astera Labs, Intuitive Surgical, Howmet Aerospace In Focus

The stock market had rallied strongly Tuesday into election results. AI plays Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Astera Labs (ALAB) were big winners. Palantir stock surged 23.5% and Astera Labs gapped up nearly 38%, both spiking to record highs on strong earnings and guidance.
The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting starts Wednesday, with a quarter-point rate expected Thursday afternoon. Fed chief Jerome Powell’s comments about future policy will be in focus. A Trump presidency may have a notable impact on future Fed moves, with markets trimming odds slightly for rate cuts.
Dow Jones Futures Jump
Dow Jones futures soared 3.2% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.% and Nasdaq 100 futures leapt 1.6%. Russell 2000 futures spiked 6.4%.
The major indexes are set to open at record highs or nearly so. The Russell 2000 is poised to gap up to its best levels since its all-time high in November 2021.
The 10-year Treasury yield raced up to 4.45%.
Bitcoin surged above $75,000 overnight, hitting a record high. It’s currently above $74,000.
Crude oil futures and gold fell about 2%, with copper futures down 4%. A strong dollar hit commodities, with Trump tariff fears also weighing on copper.
Remember that premarket action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze the market after the election on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally had a strong session on Tuesday, with investors bullish heading into election night.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% in Tuesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index jumped 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite leapt 1.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 ran up 1.9%.

The Dow Jones regained its 50-day line Tuesday. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 moved above their 21-day lines.
All remain at key levels, with the stock market election results perhaps providing a big positive or negative catalyst. Many leading stocks look like the S&P 500, pulling back from record highs above a prior consolidation, finding support at the 50-day or 21-day.
Trump Media Skyrockets
Trump Media stock, which has acted as a stock market sentiment gauge for Donald Trump’s candidacy, spiked 34% early Wednesday. DJT stock leapt 19% intraday Tuesday before closing down 1.2%.
Late Tuesday, Trump Media reported a $19.2 million loss for the third quarter in a surprise Election Day filing after the close. The Truth Social parent, majority owned by Donald Trump, had $1.01 million in revenue, up slightly from recent quarters.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock surged 13% before the open, signaling a move back to 52-week highs. CEO Elon Musk has been a huge Trump supporter.
TSLA stock popped 3.5% on Tuesday to 251.44, snapping a six-session slide, rebounding from its 21-day line.
Nvidia Stock
Nvidia stock rose 1% to above 141 before the open, just above the 140.76 buy point.
AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.85%  on Tuesday to 139.93, moving off the 21-day line, according to MarketSurge. Nvidia stock closed with a $3.432 trillion market cap vs. $3.378 trillion for Apple (AAPL).

What Trump Election Means For S&P 500, Fed Rate Cuts

What To Do Now
Futures suggest a strong post-election Trump bump for the major indexes. Many leading stocks could flash buy signals.
Assuming the gains hold past the open, investors can consider making some incremental buys. But there’s still the possibility of whipsaw action, even if there are no surprises going forward on the election.
The Fed meeting decision and continued heavy earnings add to the potential for big volatility.
The video embedded in this article discusses Tuesday’s stock market action and potential election impact. It also analyzes Astera Labs stock, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM).
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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Fund Manager Jim Roppel: Expect ‘Significant Move’ Postelection Continue reading →

Phil Streible, a seasoned market analyst, has ignited excitement among precious metals investors with his bullish outlook on silver. In … Continue reading →

 After more than a year of anticipation, the U.S. presidential election is finally upon us. News coverage is at a fever pitch, and rhetoric from both sides has turned increasingly intense. Many people are experiencing election fatigue, ready to get past the noise and move on with their lives. Naturally, precious metals investors are wondering how the election outcome will impact their holdings. Is there a simple answer, such as “Democrats boost gold and silver, while Republicans don’t” (or vice versa)? In this article, I’ll explore historical data to address that question and share additional insights that support a bullish outlook for precious metals in the years ahead.

Since early October, presidential candidate Donald Trump’s election odds have risen significantly against candidate Kamala Harris. According to Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, Trump’s chances surged from 48.9% against Harris’s 50.0% to a peak of 66.9% against her 33.1% by October 30th. During this period, gold gained a solid 5.8%, and silver rose 8.5%. The U.S. Dollar Index, equities, and Bitcoin also saw increases, in what became known as the “Trump trade.”

By October 30th, however, Donald Trump’s election odds had peaked and subsequently declined to 55.4% at the time of writing. As Trump’s odds fell, precious metals, the U.S. Dollar Index, equities, and Bitcoin also experienced pullbacks. While other factors may be influencing these trends, the initial impression suggests that the prospect of a Trump presidency is bullish for gold and silver.

Many are curious whether one political party tends to be more bullish for gold and silver than the other. To address this, the World Gold Council recently analyzed gold’s performance before and after U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2022. Their findings indicate that none of the results are statistically significant, however, leading them to conclude, “Overall, our analysis of gold and U.S. presidential elections suggests that gold does not react directly to party affiliation or changes in leadership.”The same World Gold Council study found that gold bullion coin sales were higher when a Democrat was in office. They theorized this trend is likely because gold buyers tend to lean Republican and feel more apprehensive when a Democrat is in office, making them more inclined to purchase gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset (a theory I agree with). I’d also like to point out that the major gold-buying episodes of the past few decades have coincided with Democratic presidencies, though were not due to the actions or policies of any particular party—for example, the Y2K scare in the late 1990s, the Global Financial Crisis from 2007 to 2011, and the COVID pandemic in the early-2020s.As we’ve seen, there’s no clear link between the party in the White House and the performance of precious metals—at least historically. I believe that regardless of which party wins, the long-term outlook for gold and silver remains bright. Both parties have shown a strong tendency to increase the national debt—a factor that supports a bullish case for precious metals, as illustrated in the graph below.

Though Republicans are often viewed as the more fiscally conservative party, the national debt—now nearing $36 trillion—has grown at an average annual rate of 10.4% under Republican presidencies since 1980, compared to 7% under Democratic administrations. It’s worth noting that the higher debt growth during Republican terms is largely due to Ronald Reagan’s significant defense spending during the Cold War. There’s a real risk that ambitious Democratic-backed initiatives, such as a potential Green New Deal, universal basic income (UBI), and funding those through the principles of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), would drive national debt far higher—an outcome that would be very bullish for gold and silver.Examining U.S. federal budget surpluses and deficits as a percentage of GDP can also shed light on whether either party has a tendency to run larger deficits. My findings show that since 1980, there’s little difference between Democrats (an average annual deficit of -3.86%) and Republicans (-3.72%). This reinforces my view that the outlook for gold and silver remains strong, regardless of the party in power, as both are likely to continue running budget deficits well into the future.Money supply growth is the reason for inflation, and gold and silver benefit from inflation over the long run. Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman famously stated, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” The graph of the M2 money supply below illustrates its steady increase, regardless of the political party in power—a trend I expect to continue.

The M2 money supply encompasses all currency in circulation, checking accounts, travelers’ checks, savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. Since 1980, M2 has grown at an average annual rate of 5.63% under Democratic presidents and 6.93% under Republican presidents, with the latter figure notably skewed by the high growth rates during the Reagan era. The graph below shows how gold follows the M2 money supply higher over time:Examining inflation itself, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)—a measure of the cost of consumer goods and services over time—has steadily risen regardless of the political party in the White House. Since 1980, the average annual inflation rate during Democratic presidencies has been 3.1%, compared to 3.5% under Republican presidencies, with the latter figure skewed by the Reagan years. I expect inflation to keep climbing regardless of who holds office, which should bolster the case for gold and silver.One key reason I expect inflation to accelerate in the years ahead is the increasingly precarious fiscal position of the United States. As the graph below shows, the national debt has been growing at a much faster pace than the economy, worsening our debt burden significantly. With the government nearing its fiscal limits, it will have far less flexibility to support the economy during recessions or national emergencies through traditional stimulus measures. This raises the likelihood that the government will eventually resort to outright debt monetization or “money printing” to cover expenses, which would lead to rapid inflation and push gold and silver to remarkable highs.Even more concerning is the U.S. Congressional Budget Office’s projection that federal debt held by the public, as a percentage of GDP, will soar from just below 100% today to around 170% over the next few decades: Since the 2020 pandemic, the combination of America’s surging national debt and rising interest rates has more than doubled annual interest payments to over $1.1 trillion:As of this year, gross interest on U.S. debt has exceeded spending on defense, income security, health, veteran’s benefits, and even Medicare, making it the second-largest expense for the U.S. government—trailing only Social Security, which stands at approximately $1.5 trillion annually:In light of these factors, the long-term outlook for gold and silver remains robust, regardless of political leadership. With a steadily climbing national debt, mounting interest obligations, and an accelerating trend toward monetary expansion, the economic and fiscal environment is increasingly supportive of precious metals. Inflationary pressures, driven by aggressive monetary policies and large-scale government spending, are likely to persist and intensify, enhancing the appeal of gold and silver as safe-haven assets. Whether due to fiscal policies or structural economic challenges, precious metals are positioned to thrive in a landscape where financial stability is increasingly at risk. Continue reading →

Summary The probability of recession is now rapidly falling. The downward direction is likely to continue as the Federal Reserve … Continue reading →

At the last FOMC meeting, gold soared after the Federal Reserve announced a half-point interest rate cut Traders expect a … Continue reading →

Little to no movement in precious metals markets during lead-up to the U.S. election Gold prices remained flat for the … Continue reading →

Summary The dollar is in mostly narrow ranges today, but the Antipodeans and Scandis are the strongest. Emerging market currencies … Continue reading →

As G7 mulls Russian palladium sanctions, global markets hold their breath. With automotive industry hanging in balance and prices soaring, … Continue reading →