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(Bloomberg) — US equity futures pointed to a steady open, as earnings from a trio of Wall Street banks beat expecations. Treasuries rose.Most Read from BloombergShares of Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rose after all three topped revenue forecasts. S&P 500 contracts and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.Corporate America is benefitting from lower rates early into the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, defying reduced profit forecasts. The latest batch of bank results follow forecast-topping earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co. last week.Energy shares fell in premarket trading, as oil prices plunged below $75 a barrel after a report Israel will hold off attacking Iranian oil facilities. The yield on the 10-year Treasury benchmark fell 3 basis points.Investors’ allocations nearly tripled from last month, to a net 31% overweight, according to the latest survey by Bank of America. Bond allocations saw a record swing to a net 15% underweight.The bullish mood is being fueled by Federal Reserve cuts, China stimulus and the prospect of a soft economic landing in the US, according to the bank’s strategists.Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, expects earnings season to be pretty good, partly because expectations have been lowered. “Consensus is around 4% year-over-year,” he said. “It’s a fairly low bar.”Among other premarket movers, Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. after Bloomberg reported the Biden administration discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips to some countries.Key events this week:Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup earnings, TuesdayFed’s Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler speak, TuesdayMorgan Stanley earnings, WednesdayECB rate decision, ThursdayUS retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, ThursdayFed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, ThursdayChina GDP, FridayFed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari speak, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:17 a.m. New York timeNasdaq 100 futures were little changedFutures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changedThe Stoxx Europe 600 was little changedThe MSCI World Index was little changedCurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changedThe euro was little changed at $1.0908The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3082The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 149.29 per dollarCryptocurrenciesBitcoin fell 0.5% to $65,562.88Ether fell 1.1% to $2,593.26BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.07%Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.24%Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.20%CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.2% to $70.76 a barrelSpot gold rose 0.1% to $2,651.60 an ounceThis story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

In a recent statement on X, Robert Kiyosaki, renowned author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” and financial commentator, shared his insights on the current state of the gold market and offered a stark warning about a potential stock market crash. As gold prices reach unprecedented levels, Kiyosaki’s analysis provides a sobering perspective on the economic landscape and offers guidance for investors at all levels. Continue reading →

To the surprise of almost no one, the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates last month sparked yet another gold price rally in what has been the strongest year for the metal since 2020. And most observers view the Fed’s looser policy as a reason why gold should remain bullish heading into the New Year. Continue reading →

October’s start to precious metals trading may give some investors room for pause, especially as gold is off to its worst start to a month since February. Continue reading →

Gold was flat on the week—okay, off 0.01%. Given that the US$ Index jumped higher and bond yields rose, that gold remained flat was a positive sign.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Gold was flat on the week—okay, off 0.01%. Given that the US$ Index jumped higher and bond yields rose, that gold remained flat was a positive sign. Gold is a safe haven and the beating of war drums in the Middle East has not gone away. Nor has the monstrous debt in the U.S. and the world. Nor have deep political divisions in the U.S. and an overvalued stock market that many claim is in a bubble. Silver didn’t stay flat as it rose 1.8%. Platinum can’t seem to get out of the way of itself and fell 2.0%. Of the near precious metals, palladium lost 2.4% and copper was off 0.7%. The gold stocks had a down week with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) down 3.1% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) off 2.0%. But, as we note later, we did see some life in a number of junior mining stocks. That sector has been moribund, even as the larger cap gold stocks have enjoyed a banner year.

Gold also reacted negatively on Friday following the job numbers, as the strong report seemed to nix thoughts of a 50 bp cut. A 25 bp cut remains a possibility. Gold has been knocking on $2,700 and it has not been unusual to see pauses at these even levels. We saw it at $2,500 and $2,600 before we pushed higher. The trend remains up. Gold has gained 28.8% thus far in 2024, making it already one of the best years ever.

Gold did get a bit overbought at $2,700 as the RSI went over 70 but has since pulled back to 62. We note the 50 RSI level has acted as reasonable support over the past six months. A drop under $2,650 would be short-term negative and under $2,600 we could fall further to $2,550. But with numerous pullbacks along the way,

the advance appears strong as pullbacks remain shallow. The only caveat for gold continuing to rally is now is that October is not normally a good month for gold. In the past we’ve seen selloffs start in October and the low doesn’t come until December. 2015 is still remembered as was 2016. But with the current background of war, divisions, debt, etc., gold should really only have one way to go and that is up. Even if we pause first.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Silver appears to have made a slight new high on this past Friday’s volatile day. It finished the day off small but did manage to end the week up 1.8%, outpacing gold. That said, we continue to bang up against that resistance zone at $33, hitting a high of $33.22 but closing at $32.39. It highlights the $33 resistance zone which has held us back now since May. Still, silver is up 34.5% on the year, making it one of its best years ever. We read that, according to Bloomberg, silver needs a $2.1 trillion investment by 2050 to meet rising demand for net-zero demand. There was also a mega-merger this past week of Silvercrest Metals (SIL/TO) and Coeur Mining (CDE/NYSE). But the merger is being met with a lukewarm reception as CDE fell after, down 9.5% on Friday, while SIL rose 9.7% the same day. Could other suitors for SIL emerge?

Silver needs to break through $33 to suggest to us that we are on our way to long-held targets up at $38–$40. Higher targets are also noticeable, but let’s get the first one. Silver’s RSI is only 63 so it is not yet overbought and has room to move higher. Long-term support is down at $29, but under that level long-term support comes in around $26.50. We remain bullish on silver and expect at some point to see new all-time highs above $50. First, let’s get through $33 and keep pullbacks shallow.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Despite silver being up and gold flat on the week, the gold stocks waffled and finished the week down. The TSX Gold Index (TGD) fell 2.0% while the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was off 3.1%. On the good news side, we did see positive movement in some junior gold mining stocks this past week. In the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX), which is over 50% junior mining stocks, many of the gold companies rose 2.1% this past week, one of the better performers for indices. While we remain bullish on the gold stocks into 2025, we continue to wonder if a short-term correction is in the offing. Can’t say we liked the pullback this week, especially with silver putting in a decent week to the upside. As well, that pattern still has the look of an ascending wedge triangle (bearish), which is getting narrower as we move higher. Right now, a break of 360 would do the trick, but we need to break under 345 to put more downward pressure on the sector. We would not want to see 305 or 295 taken out on the downside as that could signal a more serious decline. We never really became overbought on this up so we may still recover yet. The background remains bullish for both gold and silver and that in turn helps the stocks. Both indices are up 29%/30% this year. Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Potential Scares, Golden Falter, 25 Consensus

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

The better-than-expected September jobs report put an exclamation point on a trend that’s been underway for the better part of two months now. Continue reading →

The United States and China are locked in an escalating economic conflict, and gold is emerging as a potential strategic asset. As the two superpowers vie for dominance, one radical U.S. strategy could involve revaluing the vast gold reserves held at Fort Knox—a move that would send shockwaves through the global monetary system and shift the balance of power. Continue reading →

The world’s most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, announced a bold decision – a rate cut of 50 basis points, marking the beginning of a “recalibration” of monetary policy.  Continue reading →

There is a similarity in how gold and silver trade at the same time period and also how they trade at similar milestones, despite the fact that those milestones are sometimes reached at different times.

This can cause silver or gold to be the leading indicator, depending on the particular milestone. However, for the most part, gold has been the leading indicator.

Here are some significant breakouts where gold was the leading indicator:

During the 1970s bull market, both silver and gold formed significant consolidation patterns after their 1974 highs. Gold was the first to break higher than its 1974 high in July 1978, whereas silver only broke higher than its 1974 high 28 weeks later.

The same occurred during the previous bull market. After peaking in March 2008, silver only cleared its peak 51 weeks after the gold breakout.

Both gold and silver formed similar consolidations after their August 2020 peaks. Gold already broke higher than its peak in March of this year. This was a clear indication that it is likely a matter of time before silver would also break higher.

Silver is now close to making a similar breakout about 32 weeks after the gold breakout.

By the time silver catches up with gold, there is often already good momentum in the market. This often makes silver’s breakouts more decisive. This translates into the best rallies (especially for silver), as was the case after the February 1979 silver breakout as well as for the October 2010 silver breakout.

So, if the silver breakout is confirmed, we are likely to see even more intense rallies than those of 2020 for both silver and gold.

Furthermore, gold is already in a sweet spot after the major breakout in March. This is a major signal and leading indicator for the coming run to silver (and the silver breakout). Learn more at my premium gold and silver blog. For the macro gold breakout, see here:

Warm regards

Hubert Moolman

For more of this kind of analysis, subscribe to my Premium Service. I also have a Silver Fractal Analysis Report that provides more insight regarding silver market.
Hubert Moolman is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver . Hubert is the owner of HGM and Associates and HGM Research. Hubert’s work is regularly published in the premier gold and silver publications such as: Kitco.com, GoldSeek.com, SilverSeek.com, Mineweb.com, Resourceinvestor.com, Seekingalpha.com and many more.

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HGM Research provides a world-class research service, covering the Gold and Silver markets, JSE Gold Miners, HUI and other selected markets. We offer a free newsletter as well as a premium (pay per article service) covering the above financial markets. We are known for our proprietary Fractal Chart Analysis. Our Fractal Analysis helps us to identify great investment opportunities. We would also consider requests for research, covering specific companies traded on a public listed exchange or research of specific global or local indices.

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India’s gold imports hit a 3.5-year high in August, surging 58% YoY due to strong demand and tariff cuts. With the festive season ahead, 2024 demand could surpass 800 tonnes, the highest since 2015. Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Key US Treasury yields are back at 4%, a level not seen since August, after a blowout jobs report forced traders to reassess the outlook for monetary policy.Most Read from BloombergBonds dropped Monday, extending a plunge late last week after surprisingly robust September payrolls data undercut chances for another big reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year yield rose four basis points to 4.01%, while the two-year yield was up eight basis points to 4%.Listen to the Here’s Why podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.The moves reflect swirling doubts over the Fed’s next move. Swaps no longer fully price a 25-basis-point reduction for the Fed’s next decision in November, and for the first time since Aug. 1 there are fewer than 50 basis points of cuts implied through year-end.“We’ve expected higher yields but anticipated a somewhat gradual adjustment,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including George Cole wrote in a note. “The extent of strength in the September jobs report may have accelerated that process, with renewed debate on the extent of policy restriction, and, in turn, the likely depth of Fed cuts.”European bonds followed US Treasuries lower. The German 10-year yield rose four basis points to 2.25%, the highest in over a month, while its UK equivalent rose six basis points to 4.19%.Bond Traders Buckle Up for ‘No Landing’ After Jobs SurpriseThe selloff following Friday’s jobs data is just the latest twist in a year that’s forced investors to recalibrate their expectations for the economy and Fed policy numerous times. US services activity also caught traders off guard last week, exceeding all forecasts, and casting further doubt on theories that the economy was deteriorating more rapidly than feared.The underperformance in shorter-dated US Treasuries, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, has left a key part of the yield curve on the brink of inverting once again. Historically, bond yield curves slope upward with longer notes paying higher yields, a norm that was disrupted for almost two years as the Fed hiked rates aggressively. The curve started to normalize last month, with two-year yields falling back below 10-year ones.Traders are looking ahead to a series of speeches from Fed policymakers for further clues on the path for rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Fed Board member Michele Bowman speak at different events on Monday.The market is also awaiting US inflation data later this week. The consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in September, its smallest gain in three months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said projections issued by officials, alongside their September rate decision, point toward quarter-point rate cuts at the final two meetings of the year.“It doesn’t need a recession to get inflation to tolerable levels, so the Fed is easing policy without waiting for genuine economic weakness,” said Dario Perkins, managing director at TS Lombard. “By now, everyone should have realized the Fed is cutting rates pre-emptively.”(Updates with Fed pricing in paragraph three.)Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →