Category Archives: Silver Rounds

Veteran investor Rick Rule warns of a potential short squeeze in silver, predicting a “religious experience” for short sellers. In … Continue reading →

Gold hits new record early Friday on haven demand as the U.S. trade war with other nations appeared to be … Continue reading →

Xi emphasized on how the country is a safe and stable place for foreign business. “To invest in China is to invest in tomorrow,” he said in Mandarin translated by CNBC. 
Business leaders Xi met included Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio, Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters  and CEO of the Blackstone Group Steve Schwartzman.
“To invest in China is to invest in tomorrow,” Xi said in Mandarin translated by CNBC. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping on met with global executives on Friday, March 28, 2025.
CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday met with global executives and made a case for investing in the country, as Beijing focuses on reaching out to businesses amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S.
He said multinational companies had a big responsibility to “uphold global order” and that they needed to work hand in hand with China.

He emphasized that China was a safe and stable place for foreign companies. “To invest in China is to invest in tomorrow,” he said in Mandarin translated by CNBC. 
Echoing recent policy plans, Xi said that China would ensure fair opportunities for foreign businesses to participate in government procurement bids.
More than 40 people, mostly foreign executives and business officials, attended the roundtable meeting with Xi, including Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio, Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters  and Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwartzman.
U.S. President Donald Trump has raised tariffs by 20% on China since January over its alleged role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis, and threatened a swath of new tariffs on major trading partners starting early April. Trump this week said he might reduce China tariffs to help close a deal that forces Beijing-based ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations.
The U.S. this week also added dozens of Chinese tech companies to its export blacklist, the first such restrictions under the Trump administration.

China has increased its trade with Southeast Asian countries and the European Union, but the U.S. remains Beijing’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis.
Xi said U.S.-China trade tensions should be resolved through negotiations. “We need to work for the stability of global supply chains,” he added, noting there was no way out under decoupling.
Politburo standing committee member Cai Qi, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and Vice Premier He Lifeng also attended the meeting along with the heads of China’s economic planning agency, finance ministry and commerce ministry.
Seven foreign executives spoke at the meeting before Xi gave closing remarks, according to an agenda seen by CNBC.
Xi gave individualized comments on the speaker’s remarks based on past history with the person or the company, according to Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on US-China Relations.
Orlins pointed out that the companies present at the meeting already had interests in China.
Beijing has sought to offset trade pressures, rather than retaliate forcefully. It courted the executives of major U.S. businesses at a state-backed annual conference that ran from Sunday to Monday. Apple CEO Tim Cook was among those who attended, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk was conspicuous by his absence.
Also on Sunday, U.S. Republican Senator Steve Daines met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing — the first time a U.S. politician has visited China since Trump began his latest term in January.
“This was the first step to an important next step, which will be a meeting between President Xi and President Trump,” Daines told the Wall Street Journal. “When that occurs and where it occurs is to be determined.”
The White House did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Li urged cooperation and said no one can gain from a trade war, according to state media.
Top executives of major firms including FedEx, Pfizer, Cargill, Qualcomm and Boeing as well as U.S.-China Business Council President Sean Stein were also present at Daines’ meeting with Li, according to a foreign media pool report. Continue reading →

Copper broke out to a new all-time high yesterday, signaling the start of a powerful bull market—one that’s likely to unfold as part of a broader, long-term commodities supercycle.

Of course, I’ve been bullish on copper for several months. My view was that copper would emerge from its late 2024 slump and begin a long-term bull market.

At the time of my initial call, copper was struggling to hold the $4.00 per pound level. Today, it has surged to a new all-time high of $5.21 — a breakout that signals the start of a powerful new bull cycle.

Given copper’s strong historical correlation with silver, and the role of arbitrage algorithms that reinforce this relationship, I believe silver is poised to follow copper’s lead higher.

Copper’s weekly chart reveals a major resistance zone between $5.00 and $5.20 — a level that has held firm for the past three years. Yesterday, copper began to push above this critical zone, which is a strong bullish signal.

However, for full confirmation of the breakout, I’d like to see a decisive weekly close at or above this level.

The monthly copper chart reveals an ascending triangle pattern that has taken shape over the past few years. Copper is now beginning to break out of this formation, which is a highly bullish development.

That said, I’d prefer to see the monthly candle close at or above this level to confirm the breakout. If confirmed, I believe this move will mirror the strength of the 2020 rally that preceded it.

Using the measured move principle in technical analysis, the breakout projects a potential $3 per pound advance—taking copper to $8, which represents a 53% gain from current levels.

The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is also forming an ascending triangle pattern, though it has yet to break out. However, with copper’s bull market gaining momentum, a breakout in COPX appears likely in the near future.

The breakout in copper miners should also invigorate silver mining stocks (and the SIL and SILJ ETFs) given the significant overlap between the two as silver is often a byproduct of copper mining.

As I’ve often highlighted, I developed an indicator called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) to validate and analyze silver’s price trends. The SSPI averages the prices of gold and copper, with copper weighted by a factor of 540 to ensure gold doesn’t dominate the calculation.

Although silver itself isn’t part of the input, the index has shown a strong correlation with silver’s actual price movements, offering valuable insights into its underlying price dynamics.

For much of the past year, the 2,600 to 2,640 zone has acted as a critical resistance for the SSPI. I’ve consistently stated that a breakout above this zone would mark the beginning of a bull market in both the SSPI and silver.

Now, with copper’s bull market gaining traction, the SSPI is set to move even higher—making it increasingly untenable for silver to remain stagnant. The ongoing divergence between silver and the SSPI is highly unusual.

However, that disconnect appears unsustainable. With upward pressure building, silver looks primed to break out—and that shift could happen at any moment.

Now, let’s take a closer look at silver itself. COMEX silver futures saw a brief pullback over the past few days but rebounded sharply today with a 2.2% gain—right in line with my expectations, likely boosted by the strength in copper. 

Importantly, silver continues to hold above the key $32–$33 support zone, which is an encouraging sign of underlying strength. The next critical test is the $34–$35 resistance zone. 

Once silver breaks through this level decisively, I expect it to accelerate toward $40, $50, $60, and beyond.

In recent months, I’ve become increasingly convinced that we’re on the verge of a new commodities supercycle—one that could last 10 to 15 years, much like the boom of the 2000s.

This emerging cycle isn’t limited to gold, silver, or copper; it spans a wide range of commodities, from crude oil and natural gas to cotton, wheat, and sugar.

Copper’s recent breakout appears to align perfectly with this thesis, signaling the early stages of a broader, inflationary surge in hard assets.

Gold’s powerful $1,000-per-ounce rally over the past year may have been the market’s early warning—a sign that something big is brewing.

While this trend would have concerning implications, it also presents a tremendous opportunity for those who are aware of it.

I won’t delve into all the reasons behind my expectation of a commodities supercycle here (though I’ll explore them in depth in an upcoming report). For now, I’ll highlight a few key factors driving my view.

First, the commodities-to-Dow ratio shows that commodities are significantly undervalued compared to stocks, reaching levels historically seen before major commodity bull markets and periods of stock market stagnation.

This points to an impending capital rotation, where investment shifts from equities into hard assets and natural resources.

Another key reason I anticipate a commodities supercycle is the extreme overvaluation of the U.S. dollar relative to other fiat currencies, a phenomenon unseen in over 120 years of data except in 1933 and 1985—both periods followed by significant dollar declines.

Historically, the U.S. dollar and commodities share a strong inverse relationship. The dollar’s unusual strength in recent years has been a major factor suppressing commodity prices.

However, an impending correction in the dollar’s value should trigger a powerful bullish surge across the commodities sector, including assets like copper, gold, silver, and mining stocks.

U.S. stocks are significantly overvalued and appear to be in a massive bubble.

One compelling indicator is the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE) ratio, which reveals a market more overstretched than it was before the 1929 crash and the Great Depression.

When this bubble bursts, much of that capital is going to shift into tangible, useful assets—namely commodities—driving their prices sharply higher. This surge will fuel severe inflation and further erode the value of fiat currencies.

To summarize, copper is embarking on a significant bull market, which I expect to be part of a broader commodities surge that will unfold in the late 2020s supercycle.

I expect the strength in copper and gold to propel silver out of its current lull, sparking a rally that takes most investors by surprise.

Meanwhile, I’m deeply concerned about the U.S. stock market bubble, which I believe is nearing its end. Its collapse will channel significant capital into hard assets, rewarding investors positioned in this space.

I’m aligning my strategy accordingly and look forward to sharing more insights on this theme in the future. Continue reading →

Silver has ripped 40% higher over the past year. It currently trades at $34.33 per ounce. Despite the healthy price … Continue reading →

Even wealthy luxury car buyers may be stopped in their tracks due to new Trump auto tariffs. And that could … Continue reading →

Gold was little changed early Wednesday, continuing to trade near its record high above $3,000 an ounce on fears that … Continue reading →

The most significant Dow peaks in the last 100 years were in 1929, 1966, 1973 and 1999. The 1929 peak was a nominal major peak as well as a major peak as measured in terms of gold (Dow/Gold ratio peak).

The 1966 and 1999 peaks were major Dow/Gold (D/G) peaks, whereas the 1973 peak was a major nominal peak. There has always been an interesting relationship between these peaks and silver rallies. After all of these peaks of the Dow there were significant silver rallies that followed.

Below, is a long-term chart for sold and the Dow:

I have marked these significant Dow peaks on the silver chart. There was a silver rally after the September 1929 peak of the Dow. The silver rally started (in 1932) a bit more than 2 years after the Dow peak, and it was the beginning of a long period of growth for silver prices. The first peak in this good period for silver occurred in 1935, about 6 years after the major nominal Dow peak.

After the 1966 Dow/Gold peak, there was a short silver rally to 1968, but the real rally started in 1971, and it also was the beginning of a long rally for silver. A few years into that rally, the Dow made a major nominal peak (1973). The rally continued after the major nominal Dow peak, and silver eventually peaked about 7 years after (in 1980).

In 1999 there was a major Dow/Gold peak, and this was eventually followed by a silver rally that started in 2001. Just like in 1932 and 1971, this was the beginning of a long period of growth for silver prices (we are still in this period).

The next step in this pattern is a major nominal Dow peak, just like in 1973. The Dow made a new nominal high in December 2024. If this is the Dow peak, then we are in the midst of a major silver rally that you can track on my premium blog. Based on the historical pattern we could see a silver peak about 6 to 7 years after the major nominal Dow high.

In other words this predicts a silver peak as early as 2030, which is a little later than what is predicted based on the major silver cup comparisons.

Warm regards

Hubert Moolman

For more of this kind of analysis, subscribe to my Premium Service. I also have a Silver Fractal Analysis Report that provides more insight regarding silver market.
Hubert Moolman is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver . Hubert is the owner of HGM and Associates and HGM Research. Hubert’s work is regularly published in the premier gold and silver publications such as: Kitco.com, GoldSeek.com, SilverSeek.com, Mineweb.com, Resourceinvestor.com, Seekingalpha.com and many more.

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HGM Research provides a world-class research service, covering the Gold and Silver markets, JSE Gold Miners, HUI and other selected markets. We offer a free newsletter as well as a premium (pay per article service) covering the above financial markets. We are known for our proprietary Fractal Chart Analysis. Our Fractal Analysis helps us to identify great investment opportunities. We would also consider requests for research, covering specific companies traded on a public listed exchange or research of specific global or local indices.

http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks traded in a tight range Wednesday as investors searched for a clear direction amid weaker US … Continue reading →

China courted the executives of major U.S. businesses at an annual conference this week — a sign of how Beijing seeks to offset trade pressures, rather than retaliate forcefully.
Chinese attendees weren’t that focused on what can be done to respond to U.S. tariffs, Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, told CNBC.
At this week’s conference, China was trying to send a message of “reassurance” — on how it plans to boost consumption and how the country is headed in a “modestly positive direction” relative to what is happening in the United States, said Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Attendees pose for a group photo before the opening ceremony of the China Development Forum 2025 at the Diaoyutai Guesthouse on March 23, 2025, in Beijing.
China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — China courted the executives of major U.S. businesses at an annual conference this week in a sign of how Beijing seeks to offset trade pressures, rather than retaliate forcefully.
China has long sought to attract foreign investment as a way to bolster growth, while tapping business interests for potential influence on the White House, particularly under U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. has twice increased tariffs across all Chinese goods since January, but Beijing has only announced targeted duties and restrictions on a handful of American companies.

Conversation on the sidelines of the state-organized China Development Forum this week in Beijing reinforced a more conciliatory stance than official rhetoric this month about how China is prepared to fight “any type of war” with the United States.
Chinese conference attendees weren’t that focused on what can be done to respond to U.S. tariffs, Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, told CNBC.
“The questions I’ve been getting more [are], why is Trump doing this? What is he trying to achieve? What does he think it takes to really make America great?” Roach said. He has attended the event since the early 2000s.

“My answer is this is an unprecedented period for America’s role in the world economy. We’re going back to a tariff regime that history tells us can be extremely destructive,” Roach said, adding he expects more policy uncertainty in the U.S. and around the world “for a long, long time.”
U.S. stocks have swung in recent weeks as investors try to assess the economic impact of Trump’s changing plans for tariffs on major U.S. trading partners. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week said tariffs could delay progress on lowering inflation in the U.S.

A message of ‘reassurance’

At this week’s conference, China was trying to send a message of “reassurance” — on how it plans to boost consumption and how the country is headed in a “modestly positive direction” relative to what is happening in the U.S., said Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.
If the U.S. imposes significantly large tariffs in early April, “then you go from managing costs and de-risking to possibly de-coupling,” Kennedy told CNBC. “And then that might mean the game is up. So I think the level of anxiety is pretty high. And that’s why China is trying to provide this message of reassurance.”
The Trump administration has threatened a swath of new tariffs on major trading partners starting early April. China has increased its trade with Southeast Asian countries and the European Union, but the U.S. remains Beijing’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis.
The China Development Forum ran Sunday and Monday. Apple CEO Tim Cook was among the executives who attended, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk was not.
“The increased optimism this year compared to last year at the CDF has been just so heart warming,” Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, said during an official panel at the forum.
Trump “is committed to American companies having access to a global market,” Griffin said. “And the President is willing to use tariffs to seek to enforce this worldview.”

First step toward Xi-Trump meeting?

Also on Sunday, U.S. Republican Senator Steve Daines met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing — the first time a U.S. politician has visited China since Trump began his latest term in January.
“This was the first step to an important next step, which will be a meeting between President Xi and President Trump,” Daines told the Wall Street Journal. “When that occurs and where it occurs is to be determined.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Li urged cooperation and said no one can gain from a trade war, according to state media.
FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam, Boeing Senior Vice President Brendan Nelson, Cargill CEO Brian Sikes, Medtronic CEO Geoffrey Martha, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, UL Solutions CEO Jennifer Scanlon and U.S. China Business Council President Sean Stein were also present at Daines’ meeting with Li, according to a foreign media pool report.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, remains a significant source of revenue for many multinational corporations, not to mention a major part of their supply chains.
Despite its efforts to bolster international business ties, the country has warned of countermeasures on U.S. tariffs and taken incremental steps.
Following U.S. sanctions on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei during Trump’s first term as president, Beijing launched an unreliable entities list that restricts foreign business activity with China.
China added Calvin Klein parent PVH and a few other U.S. companies to the list after this year’s tariff increases. On Monday, China also said it would soon reveal new measures that would give it a legal basis for countering foreign pressure.

Economic factors

For U.S. companies in China, the state of the economic recovery has also been an important factor for local business plans.
Since late September, China has stepped up efforts to support the economy. Top policymakers earlier this month affirmed stimulus plans and a recent effort to encourage private-sector tech entrepreneurs in the wake of DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthroughs.
“This year, you feel a lot of positive momentum beginning in China. So I feel like recovery is underway,” Wendell P. Weeks, CEO of Corning, told CNBC.
However, China’s economy has struggled with deflationary pressure and a real estate slump, weighing on regional growth prospects for international businesses.
Even Beijing’s push to support high-tech manufacturing has so far only added an average 1.1 percentage points to gross domestic product growth in each of the last three years — not enough to offset the 1.7 percentage point drag from real estate during that time, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
“We will remain optimistic because the role of technology is important, I think more than ever,” Qualcomm’s Amon told CNBC. “I think technology is going to be part of economic growth.” Continue reading →

Summary Is the correction over? To determine that, we need to see evidence of buyers re-entering the market to absorb … Continue reading →