Category Archives: Silver Rounds

Silver industrial demand rose 4 percent in 2024 to 680.5 million ounces (Moz), reaching a new record high for the fourth consecutive year. Demand continued to benefit from structural gains linked to the green economy, including investment in grid infrastructure, vehicle electrification, and photovoltaic (PV) applications. Demand was further boosted by end-uses related to artificial intelligence (AI), which drove growth in consumer electronics shipments.

Overall, global silver demand exceeded silver supply for the fourth consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 148.9 Moz in 2024. Notably, during 2021-2024, the combined deficit reached 678 Moz, equivalent to 10 months of global mine supply in 2024.

These and other key aspects of the 2024 silver market are examined in the World Silver Survey 2025, released today by the Silver Institute. The 88-page Survey also provides an outlook for the silver market in 2025. The Survey was researched and produced for the Silver Institute by Metals Focus, the London-based independent, precious metals consultancy.

Key findings include:

Silver Demand

Total silver demand fell by 3 percent to 1.16 billion ounces (Boz) in 2024. The decline was primarily driven by weakness in physical investment and slightly lower silverware and photographic demand. The drop was partially offset by the continued strength of industrial demand, which enjoyed another record year. In keeping with 2023, growth was underpinned by record electronics & electrical demand. This reflected structural gains in the green economy flowing through from the PV and automotive sectors and grid infrastructure development. Demand also received a boost from AI-related applications. While thrifting and substitution remained limited across most sectors, notable advancements within the PV segment led to a sharp reduction in silver loadings.

On a regional breakdown, China accounted for the largest share of industrial gains, with a 7 percent rise, while India recorded a 4 percent increase. In contrast, Europe saw weaker demand across most countries in the region (except for one-off gains in the UK), while US demand declined by 6 percent in 2024.

Demand for brazing alloys rose by 3 percent, supported by growth in key industries, such as automotive and aerospace. Meanwhile, demand in the ‘other industrial’ category rose by 4 percent, despite a slight drop in ethylene oxide (EO) demand.

Silver jewelry fabrication grew by 3 percent to 208.7 Moz. India accounted for the bulk of these gains, thanks to such factors as the import duty cut, a healthy rural economy, and the ongoing rise in purities. Improving exports to key Western countries also lifted fabrication in Thailand by 13 percent. Western consumption was broadly steady as positives, such as branded silver’s gains, balanced negatives including cost-of-living issues. By contrast, China saw a third consecutive year of losses amid a challenging economic backdrop.

Silverware demand declined by 2 percent to a three-year low of 54.2 Moz. The drop was driven by softer demand in India, where elevated prices weighed on the gifting segment.

Coin and net bar demand fell 22 percent in 2024 to a five-year low of 190.9 Moz, led by double-digit declines across all major Western markets. The steepest drop was seen in the US (-46%), due to profit-taking at higher prices, market saturation, and investors’ reaction to Trump’s election. In Germany, the lingering effects of the 2023 VAT hike on certain silver products continued to weigh on demand. In contrast, India stood out with a 21 percent surge, thanks to bullish price expectations and the import duty cut.

Silver Supply

Global silver mine production rose by 0.9 percent to 819.7 Moz, underpinned by increased output from lead/zinc mines in Australia and the recovery of supply from Mexico, as Newmont’s Peñasquito mine returned to full production. This was supplemented by additional growth from Bolivia and the US. Lower output from Chile, down 8.8 Moz y/y, partially offset this growth. 

Silver production from lead/zinc mines remained the dominant source of silver, but output was flat y/y. In contrast, silver production from gold mines recorded the strongest growth, up 12% y/y to 13.9 Moz, a three-year high.

Last year, Mexico remained the leading silver mine-producing country, followed by China, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile.

Recycling rose 6 percent in 2024, reaching a 12-year high of 193.9 Moz. Industrial scrap saw the most significant increase in weight terms, mainly led by the processing of spent EO catalysts. In percentage terms, the highest gain came from silverware recycling, which climbed by 11 percent as firmer silver prices and cost-of-living issues encouraged selling in Western markets.

Outlook for Silver in 2025

Total demand this year is forecast to fall marginally to 1.15 Boz. Following a series of all-time records in recent years, industrial fabrication will remain flat in 2025, as the gains in silver’s use in PV offtake ease. Both jewelry and silverware are expected to weaken, but a modest recovery in coin and bar demand in some Western markets should largely mitigate losses.

Total silver supply is projected to increase by 1.5 percent, led by higher mine production. As a result, the silver market is anticipated to remain in a deficit, but this gap will be a four-year low of 117.6 Moz.

As outlined in World Silver Survey 2025, the impact of US tariffs will be a key risk to silver demand this year. An extended period of elevated tariffs, or a further escalation of global trade wars, could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and sharply lower global GDP growth. These will weigh on industrial, jewelry, and silverware demand, though physical investment could benefit from rising safe-haven purchases.

Silver Price

The average silver price jumped by 21 percent in 2024. The start of 2025 saw further gains, with silver exceeding $34 by mid-March amid rising uncertainties surrounding US trade and foreign policy. Thereafter, the silver price has weakened, following the US tariff announcements. Even so, as of April 7, the silver price was still up four percent for this year-to-date.

About the World Silver Survey and Ordering Information

The Silver Institute has published this annual report on the global silver market since 1990 to bring reliable supply and demand statistics to market participants and the public. Metals Focus independently researched and produced the 35th edition of World Silver Survey. The report was sponsored by 22 companies from North and South America, Asia, and Europe.

A complimentary PDF version of World Silver Survey 2025 can be downloaded from the Institute’s website at www.silverinstitute.org. In North America, hard copies may be purchased from the Institute’s website; for copies outside North America, please contact Metals Focus at www.metalsfocus.com. In addition, members of the media and government officials can request complimentary hard copies of the Survey directly from the Silver Institute.

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Amongst all this gloom, one thing has been shining. Gold! It gives credence that when everything else seems to be coming apart, the one thing that goes up is gold. Gold is the safe haven in times of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and loss of faith in government. It is also a hedge against currency gyrations as gold, unlike equities, bonds, and currencies, has no liability. Our 100-year chart of the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI)/Gold ratio shows that we are barely below the peak of 1929. The odds would appear to favour this ratio declining further in favour of gold. Bottoms were seen in 1933 (Great Depression), 1980 (the inflation 1970s), and more recently in 2011 (Great Recession).

No, gold does not go straight up. Indeed, we continue to be concerned about the fact that silver, which should be leading, is lagging badly. Not only is it nowhere near its all-time highs, but it remains below the highs of the past few months. The gold stocks, as represented by the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and the TSX Gold Index (TGD), are finally breaking out to new highs and for the TGD new all-time highs. Overall, however, gold stocks remain cheap when compared to gold and the junior miners, as represented by the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX), are at depressive levels. This situation shouldn’t remain for much longer. The note of caution, at least in the near term, is that the divergence between gold and silver is of concern. We noted that as well with the divergence between the DJI and DJT. The DJI and DJT are resolving that divergence, as both made 52-week lows this past week. Heavy buying of gold has particularly been seen in China.

Overall, commodities should be rising over the next few years, even as economic activity is disrupted and shortages develop. Commodities shone during the period of the Great Depression and the inflationary 1970s and more recently during the 2000s as we suffered through the dot.com crash and the financial crisis. The chart of the Dow/Gold ratio is breaking down in favour of gold. With both bonds and equities falling, along with housing prices and other assets, it is a matter of when, not if, the broader population including portfolio managers starts paying attention to the rise in gold. From a low in 1976 to the high in 1980, gold soared some 800%. A comparable run today could in theory take gold to around $8,000. There is too much debt in the world and one way to deal with it is a revaluation of gold. The U.S., with some 261 million ounces of gold, would need to revalue its gold holdings to at least around $14,000 to equal roughly 10% of its current debt of $36.7 trillion.

Dow/Gold Ratio 1925–2025

Source: www.macrotrends.net

Our note of caution on gold is it may be getting a bit frothy. A lot more attention is coming its way. We do appear to have overthrown that upper trendline. Is it a real breakout? Or a false move? We are not quite overbought, but we could be diverging with the previous high with a higher price but lower RSI. These divergences are not unusual, but one should proceed with caution from here. As we saw in the past week alone, we had a sharp down in the early part of the week but whipsawed back up over the past few days. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market and a lot of fear. A reversal again on tariffs could spark the stock market higher, but gold might react the opposite way, especially if the US$ Index were to rally from its current oversold condition. Regardless of any short-term gyrations, gold is going higher.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

We promised chaos and volatility in our forecast edition in December 2024. So far, we have not been disappointed. Batten down the hatches but own a bit of gold.

The Scorecard

We continue to monitor performance from the November 5, 2024 election. Gold remains solidly in the lead up 18.3%. As to rest? The S&P 500, US$ Index, WTI oil, momentum stocks and emerging market stocks are now all down in 2025. Yes, Bitcoin remains up but its slowing fading.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Possible Reversal, Golden Roars, Pummeled Dollar

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

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