Category Archives: silver-rounds

US stocks were little changed on Wednesday as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s long-awaited policy decision, with the market still divided on the size of the expected rate cut.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose about 0.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was just above the flat line, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.1%.Stocks are ticking over as the market waits to find out how aggressive the Fed will be when it makes its first US interest rate cut since 2020 at the end of its meeting later Wednesday.The significant policy shift is widely expected, given growing signs that the central bank has managed to cool inflation without severe harm to the economy. But investors are still guessing at whether hopes for a 0.5% cut will be fulfilled or the historic pattern of 0.25% moves will repeat itself.Read more: Fed predictions for 2024: What experts say about the possibility of a rate cutIn recent days, traders have stepped up bets on a bigger cut even after Fed officials earlier in September flagged they were more likely to trim the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. As of Wednesday morning, fed funds futures were pricing in a better than 60% chance the Fed goes large, up from just 15% odds a week ago.Wall Street sees stock, bond, and currency markets as vulnerable to swings in the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s decision, seen as the least predictable in years.Intense focus is also on the Fed’s new interest rate projections, an indication of how many rate cuts officials expect to see in the rest of 2024 and in 2025. The so-called dot plot will come when the Fed releases its policy decision at 2 p.m. ET.Meanwhile, investors absorbed developments in the tech sector. Microsoft (MSFT) and BlackRock (BLK) are teaming up on an effort to raise $30 billion to build out AI infrastructure, while Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) won its bid to overturn a $1.7 billion EU antitrust fine related to digital ads.Live4 updatesWed, September 18, 2024 at 9:32 AM EDTStocks waver at the openStocks were little changed at the open on Wednesday as investors patiently await the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. ET.As debate swirls whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points, the three major indexes appeared to be in wait-and-see mode.Wed, September 18, 2024 at 8:57 AM EDTHousing starts jumped in August amid declining mortgage ratesNew residential construction increased in August as mortgage rates continued their decline.Housing starts rose 9.6% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.356 million units, according to data from the Census Bureau released Wednesday. Single-family housing starts soared 15.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 992,000.The data comes as homebuilders feel more confident about the housing market. Mortgage rates are at their lowest level in over a year. Rates have been on a downward trend recently, with investors expecting the Fed to announce an interest-rate cut at the conclusion of its policy meeting later Wednesday.The data showed that building permits for single family homes rose to a pace of 967,000, a 2.8% increase from July’s revised figure of 941,000. Meanwhile, permits for multifamily came in at a rate of 451,000 in August.Wed, September 18, 2024 at 8:52 AM EDTDimon says the rate cut debate is overrated JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon told a conference on Tuesday that any interest rate move by the Fed would “not going to be earth-shattering,” arguing that “it’s a minor thing when the Fed’s raising rates and lowering rates because underneath that there’s a real economy.”The comments follow Dimon telling CNBC last month that when it comes to the debate about how much the Fed cuts interest rates, “I don’t think it matters as much as other people think. You know, the rate effect itself isn’t that critical.”Wed, September 18, 2024 at 8:45 AM EDT’The Fed cutting by 50 basis points is a real possibility’From Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger:”The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in four years Wednesday and outline the path for future rate cuts.Investors have been hoping for a larger half-percentage-point cut versus a quarter-point cut. Traders, in recent days, have increased their wager that the central bank will cut by a deeper 50 basis points. Wednesday morning, fed funds futures were pricing in a better than 60% chance the Fed cuts by 50 basis points, up from just 15% odds a week ago.’The Fed cutting by 50 basis points is a real possibility,’ said Wilmer Stith, a bond trader for Wilmington Trust, who just last week thought it was more likely the central bank could cut by 25 basis points. He’s on the fence, though, as to whether it actually happens.”Read the full story > Continue reading →

I want to start this article with a little background about Elliott Wave analysis, and begin with a quote from Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful money managers of all time:

“I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory. It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities”

Back in the 1930’s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified that markets represent unconscious, non-rational reactions which follow a repeating fractal pattern, which means they move in variably self-similar patterns at all degree of trends.  This repeating fractal pattern represents overall societal sentiment which is governed by the natural law of the universe as represented through Fibonacci Mathematics.  

Now, to be clear, people often mistake what I am saying as meaning that the patterns are what drive society.  But, the truth is that the patterns represent the social mood of society en masse, and it is the societal sentiment that causes these fractal patterns we see in the market.

Most specifically, Elliott theorized that public sentiment and mass psychology move in 5 waves within a primary trend, and 3 waves within a counter-trend.  

Once a 5 wave move in public sentiment has completed, then it is time for the subconscious sentiment of the public to shift in the opposite direction, which is simply the natural cycle within the human psyche, and not the operative effect of some form of “news.”

Also, take note that waves 1, 3 and 5 move in the direction of the general trend, and waves 2 and 4 are counter-trend moves.  Moreover, take note that waves 1, 3 and 5 further break down into 5-wave structures – which I show as an example within the 3rd wave –  whereas the corrective, counter-trend moves of waves 2 and 4 break down into 3-wave structures.

Now, I want you to take note that the segment one would want to trade is the heart of a 3rd wave, as they are the strongest segments of a rally in equities.  And, while 3rd waves are still very strong in metals, their 5th waves are even stronger.

So, as an investor, you want to be layering into a market as a 3rd wave is about to begin.  If you look at the chart above, the set up you are seeking is a i-ii, 1-2 structure, wherein you can move into the market during the wave 2 pullback, so you are prepared for the wave 3 of iii.

Silver is now developing a structure within its wave 2. The only question I have is if silver has begun its 3rd wave, or if there is one more drop to complete its wave 2 before the heart of the 3rd wave begins in earnest.

I will not bore you with the mathematical details as to how I calculated the resistance, but 31.73 is coming up as a very strong point for me over the coming week. Unless silver is able to blow through that resistance, we have a set up in place that can take silver down quite strongly over the coming weeks towards the 23.75-26.72 region to complete its 2nd wave. 

Of course, if silver can blow through the 31.73 region and continue through 33.35, then we are on our way to our next target in the 37.25-40 region, and also on our way to much higher targets after another smaller pullback from that higher target region.

Taking a step back, I want this to be a lesson to anyone utilizing Elliott Wave analysis to its most powerful end.  You must be as objective as possible when analyzing the charts you are trading.  While it is so easy to simply just view the path you would most prefer due to a bias you have derived, whether that be due to having money invested in that particular direction or from some fundamental perspective, it is absolutely imperative to always be analyzing the other side of the market to understand where and how you can be wrong in your assessment.  And, when there are levels that line up in an almost perfectly overlapping manner, you must take notice and recognize it as more than just a small probability that the market is presenting.

So, I would be watching your positions in silver over the coming week or two, as one more decline can still take shape before we are ready for the major break out. Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled near their all-time highs ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision, with traders split on the size of a central bank cut.Most Read from BloombergThe S&P 500 was little changed after briefly crossing the threshold of its record amid a surprise increase in US retail sales. Treasury yields edged up, with shorter maturities leading the move. The market-implied odds that policymakers announce a 50-basis-point rate reduction on Wednesday were around 55%. Traders have fully priced in a full quarter-point worth of easing.A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that expectations for the market reaction to the Fed decision are dependent on expectations for the size of the cut. Investors who expect a 25 basis-point cut are split on whether that cut will deliver a “risk-on” or “risk-off” reaction. Investors who expect a 50 basis-point reduction cut think a smaller cut will have a “risk-off” market reaction.The Fed will either cut 50 basis points or opt for a 25 basis-point reduction, but signal that they will be more aggressive going forward, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.Still, he says, that does not guarantee that the stock market and/or bond market will rally in a meaningful way. Maley says the Fed will likely try to convey that a more dovish stance is not seen as something that means they’re suddenly worried about an imminent recession.“Therefore, given that the stock market is approaching overbought territory, we could still get a ‘sell the news’ reaction to the Fed this week,” he added.The S&P 500 hovered near 5,630. The Nasdaq 100 was little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuated. The Russell 2000 of smaller firms gained 0.8%. Treasury 10-year yields advanced three basis points to 3.65%. The dollar rose.Right or wrong, market expectations were already shifting toward a 50 basis point Fed cut this week, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.“The stronger-than-anticipated headline retail sales number seemed to support that outlook, but the report’s fine print presented a more mixed picture,” Larkin said. “This data isn’t going to decide the issue for the Fed, one way or the other.”That said, we’re not out of the woods quite yet, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.“There are reasons to be concerned about the labor market, and while the consumer is holding on enough to beat economists’ expectations, the results are not necessarily pointing to a consumer that is thriving,” he said.The US economy remains on track for a soft landing, and the recent economic data are consistent with our view that the recession fears that triggered the early August selloff were overdone, according to Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.“While we believe equity gains will broaden out, we also think there is room for growth stocks, in particular technology stocks, to rise further,” she said.Marcelli also noted that while Fed rate cuts in non-recessionary periods have historically been favorable for equities overall, they also make growth stocks more attractive as lower rates increase the present value of these companies’ future cash flows.Corporate Highlights:Microsoft Corp. raised its quarterly dividend 10% and unveiled a new $60 billion stock-buyback program, matching the size of a repurchase plan three years ago.Intel Corp. made a raft of announcements, spurring optimism that the chipmaker’s turnaround plan is starting to bear fruit.Newmont Corp., the world’s biggest gold miner, said it’s on track to raise $2 billion — if not more — from selling smaller mines and development projects.Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc has started early discussions with some of the potential suitors for its homecare assets, which could fetch more than £6 billion ($7.9 billion) in a deal, according to people familiar with the matter.Continental AG is pushing ahead with preparations for a separation of its struggling car parts business, even as it grapples with recalls related to faulty braking systems it supplied, according to people familiar with the matter.Key events this week:Eurozone CPI, WednesdayFed rate decision, WednesdayUK rate decision, ThursdayUS US Conf. Board leading index, initial jobless claims, US existing home sales, ThursdayFedEx earnings, ThursdayJapan rate decision, FridayEurozone consumer confidence, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 was little changed as of 1:28 p.m. New York timeThe Nasdaq 100 was little changedThe Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changedThe MSCI World Index was little changedThe Russell 2000 Index rose 0.8%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1117The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3156The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 141.89 per dollarCryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 5.7% to $60,948.16Ether rose 4.4% to $2,374.08BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.64%Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.14%Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.77%CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to $71.60 a barrelSpot gold fell 0.6% to $2,565.93 an ounceThis story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Continue reading →

“The Fed should act in the way that the data indicates that they should act. Period,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., chair of the House Financial Services Committee.
Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island have called for the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, which is higher than the most aggressive market expectations.
Former President Donald Trump said in an August press conference that he believes he should get a say on monetary policy if he wins in November.

U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., speaks to members of the media outside the office of U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Oct. 3, 2023.
Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty Images

Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., sharply criticized other politicians on Tuesday for making public comments about what the Federal Reserve should do with its interest rate policy.
McHenry, the outgoing chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said it was an ‘”outrage” that some politicians are publicly lobbying the central bank about rate cuts.

“The outrage to me is … for instance, if you’re on the right, you say the Fed should be independent, except I think right now they should do this. And on the left, the same,” said McHenry, who is retiring from Congress at the end of this term.
“Senators that are trying to direct the Fed on rate policy are really demeaning their role. … They’re demeaning their role as a United States Senator,” he added.
McHenry’s comments came one day before the U.S. central bank is widely expected to start cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020. Coming in the middle of a presidential election cycle, the change in Fed policy has stirred speculation as to whether the central bank would be influenced by political considerations. Chair Jerome Powell, first appointed by Trump and reappointed by President Joe Biden, has repeatedly denied that is a factor.
On Monday, Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island called for the Fed to cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.75 percentage points, which is higher than the most aggressive market expectations. Warren and Whitehouse are both running for reelection in November, while Hickenlooper’s term ends in 2026.
Republicans who have weighed in include former President Trump, who said in an August press conference that he believes he should get a say on monetary policy if he wins in November. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, also introduced a bill earlier this year that would abolish the Fed.

When asked about Trump’s remarks, McHenry said “all presidents think they should give an input” but that the central bankers should ignore statements from politicians.
“The Fed should act in the way that the data indicates that they should act. Period,” McHenry said.
The remarks came at a conference hosted by Georgetown University’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO Continue reading →

US stock futures rose on Tuesday, with techs leading the advance in the wait for fresh retail sales data and the start of a Federal Reserve meeting pivotal to an interest-rate cut.Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) moved up roughly 0.2%, coming off a record-high close for the blue-chip index. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) added 0.3%, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) put on 0.4%.Stocks are setting up for gains as the odds on a 0.5% Fed rate cut creep higher, with just one day to go before its monetary policy decision. The central bank’s two-day meeting, which begins Tuesday, is prevailingly expected to bring the first easing in rates since early 2020.Investors are looking to an August reading on retail sales due later for insight into the health of the consumer and economy, the last piece of data that could factor into the Fed’s thinking. A softer-than-expected print could reinforce bets on a substantial rate cut rather than a quarter-point move.Read more: Fed predictions for 2024: What experts say about the possibility of a rate cutRight now, the rate-path debate now is focused on the chance that the bigger cut could prompt panic in markets. At the same time, some on Wall Street suggest the smaller move could also disappoint and spark concern.As of Tuesday, traders see odds of 65% on a 50 basis point reduction in rates, compared with 62% a day ago. The chances of a 25 basis point cut stand at 35%, per the CME FedWatch tool.Meanwhile, Intel’s (INTC) shares popped after its foundry secured Amazon as a multibillion-dollar customer for AI chips. Also helping revive faith in battered tech stocks was Microsoft’s (MSFT) new plan to buy back up to $60 billion in shares and a 10% boost to its dividend. Continue reading →

(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures edged higher as investors awaited a batch of economic data and clung to hopes the Federal Reserve would deliver a supersized interest-rate cut at its monetary policy meeting, which starts on Tuesday.After a choppy start to the week, the S&P 500 ended its sixth straight session higher and near a record high on Monday, helped by Financials and Energy stocks.The Dow also closed at a record high. However, the Nasdaq ended the session lower as investors rotated out of tech stocks, which have led much of this year’s rally.Microsoft rose nearly 2.0% in premarket trading on the day after the AI-frontrunner’s board approved a new $60-billion share buyback program and hiked its quarterly dividend by 10%.Among growth stocks, Alphabet and Tesla added 0.63% and 0.57%, respectively, while Nvidia inched up 0.30%. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds hovered near two-year lows. [US/]At 05:35 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 84 points, or 0.20%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 17.75 points, or 0.31% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 99 points, or 0.51%.In economic data, reports on industrial production and retail sales for August, expected later in the day, could influence investor expectations on the size of the central bank’s first interest-rate cut this year.Fed officials are slated to kickstart a two-day meeting and traders are betting on a 67% probability the world’s most influential central bank will decide to lower borrowing costs by a bigger 50 basis points, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.Odds favoring a smaller 25 bps reduction have slipped to 33% from 66% a week earlier, as investors focused on remarks from a former policymaker supporting an outsized move and signs of a cooling labor market, among other indicators.However, Mohit Kumar, chief Europe economist at Jefferies, said in a note that a “‘safer’ approach for (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell would be to cut by 25bp”, but keep the side door open for a 50 bps cut at later meetings. “Proximity of (U.S.) elections also imply that it would be a more politically neutral stance.”September has historically been weak for U.S. equities, with the benchmark S&P 500 down about 1.20% for the month on an average since 1928. The index has lost about 0.30% so far this September.Still, a survey of BofA fund managers showed global investor sentiment improved in September 2024 for the first time since June on optimism around a soft landing and rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.Among other movers, Intel jumped 7.0% after signing up Amazon.com’s cloud services unit as a customer to make custom artificial-intelligence chips.Viasat dropped 5.0% after brokerage J.P.Morgan downgraded it to “neutral” from “overweight”.(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai) Continue reading →

[embedded content]Silver To Outperform Gold 4 To 1 As New Monetary System Emerges ‘In Next 3 Years’ | https://www.themorganreport.com
David Morgan, Publisher of The Morgan Report, discusses the outlook for gold, silver, and how the gold “barometer is signaling “stormy times ahead”.
Watch this video on Silver To Outperform Gold 4 To 1 As New Monetary System Emerges ‘In Next 3 Years’, then please share with your friends and family on social media and use the caption: Silver To Outperform Gold 4 To 1 As New Monetary System Emerges ‘In Next 3 Years’.Market Analysis — Investing — Trading Methods At The Morgan Report — Starting As Low As $50 | http://www.themorganreport.com/join.
Starting your own precious metals savings program is an easy way to automatically save in gold and silver. This makes it easy to maintain a disciplined program for increasing your ownership of history’s most proven stores of value. Learn more here.

Let My Passion Create Your Wealth.
I’ve Been Helping My Subscribers Weather the Current Economic Mess. Now I Invite You to Join My Growing Circle of Successful Investors.
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation, and asset protection.
Thus was born The Morgan Report – since then we’ve helped 11,000-plus members scattered over the globe in every continent and over 100,000+ e-newsletter subscribers have read our weekly e-newsletter — This Week’s View from The Morgan Report.
Through our publication, The Morgan Report, we provide you with ways to achieve greater financial security and wealth in all sorts of environments.
Learn more and become an insider for The Morgan Report, click the link below…
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Special Riches In Resources Free Report
Because there is a 100% failure rate of ALL fiat money throughout history, you will learn what to do by obtaining your Free Report. Just enter your first name, your primary email address and click the Get Special Report button below.

Our mission statement reads…
“To teach and empower people to understand the benefits of an honest monetary system.” Today’s monetary system is based upon a lie. The lie is that you can get something for nothing, or perhaps more simply stated, wealth can be printed. History has shown throughout 5000 years that whenever a country has tried to maintain this illusion (lie), failure has been the result. We invite you to learn more about what The Morgan Report can do for you. Click on the Learn More About The Morgan Report button now!
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SusanneBI wrote about the inflation report that moved markets last week, and now, all eyes are on the Fed. Typically, the Fed cuts rates when there is a problem or when something is seriously wrong with the economy. Therefore, lowering interest rates is often associated with negative economic factors and potential downside for stocks. However, the economy remains resilient, and the Fed will likely cut rates on September 18th. We’ve been trapped in a relatively high interest rate environment for a long time. Now that inflation has decreased considerably and the job market has weakened, it’s time to cut rates. Moreover, housing, manufacturing, and other segments of the economy are showing signs of substantial weakness. While the near-term volatility could persist, a more accessible monetary stance should lead to improved growth and increased liquidity, a highly constructive dynamic for high-quality stocks and other risk assets. Furthermore, the Fed could cut by 50 Bps to kick things off, which markets should welcome. Also, corporate earnings remain healthy, and despite the potential temporary growth slowdown in AI and other segments, we could see improving and better-than-expected earnings in future quarters. Valuations, while elevated, are not nearing any extremes, implying there could be substantial upside in the current bull market. Due to this constructive dynamic, I am keeping my S&P 500 “SPX” (SP500) year-end target at 6,200. The Technical Image – A Triple Top? SPX (stockcharts.com ) “There are no such things as triple tops.” That’s how the trading saying goes. Incidentally, we see the SPX approaching what could be a triple top, but there is a high probability that the SPX will break out. We witnessed a highly constructive technical correction in July and early August. This correction lowered the SPX by about 10% to roughly the 5,200 support level. Moreover, the SPX successfully re-tested the support, only dropping to 5,400 recently. Now, SPX appears set up for another move higher here. Data This Week – The FOMC Approaches Data (investing.com ) While there are several crucial data points this week, it’s all about the FOMC and the rate cut. The million-dollar question, of course, is, will the Fed cut by a modest 25 Bps or go big with a 50 Bps jump cut? The market would very likely react more favorably to the more significant 50 Bps cut. However, the essential element is that the Fed is on the right path to a more accessible monetary environment. Therefore, while we may see an adverse knee-jerk reaction to a 25 Bps cut, the selling will likely be short-lived, and a post-FOMC pullback will likely turn into a buying opportunity in the coming days. Rates Likely Going Lower Quickly Rate probabilities (CMEGroup.com ) Rates will likely be much lower by early next year. There is about an 80% probability that the funds rate will be around 3.75-4% or lower by the end of January 2025. This is a vast difference from the current 5.25-5.5% benchmark rate environment. Therefore, we could see about 150-200 Bps worth of cuts in the next several months. I want everyone to realize how significant the initial rate reduction phase could be. The Fed may take a shock-and-awe approach, including potential jumbo 50 Bps cuts in the mix as it moves toward an appropriate rate policy. Also, 4% is not the floor. Instead, it’s likely only the beginning. The benchmark could be around 3% by around mid-year 2025, and we could see lower interest rates after that. It seems like every time the Fed embarks on an easing cycle expectations are that it may end half way right after things normalize. In reality, monetary cycles typically don’t stop half or part of the way. They go “all the way.” The Fed may tolerate higher inflation to increase growth and improve the labor market. Also, inflation could have a lagging effect and continue lower even as the Fed transitions to a lower interest rate policy. Inflation could also increase gradually as growth may be sluggish in the near future. Thus, we could see much more easing and potential future QE and other stimulus programs, providing backstops and liquidity to markets in the coming years. Earnings Season Approaches It seems like earnings just ended. Nonetheless, earnings season approaches again. The recent earnings season was primarily positive, and much of the guidance was also solid. Therefore, we could see outperformance when big reports start in early October. Big banks, including JPMorgan (JPM) will report on October 11th, and we should see many bellwether stocks reporting around this time frame. This dynamic creates a favorable catalyst for stocks to move higher into the best time of the year, the holiday season, and year-end. The Valuation Perspective P/E valuations (WSJ.com) The S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E ratio (non-GAAP) of approximately 22-23. While this may seem relatively expensive historically, it may be inexpensive in the context of entering an easing monetary cycle in a resilient and stable economic atmosphere. Also, the growth image can improve, and earnings may increase more than expected, implying that the forward (2025) P/E ratio may be below 22 here. Also, the Nasdaq 100’s forward P/E ratio is around 29, but it may be around 28 or lower relative to 2025’s earnings, which is a slightly more bullish case outcome. Considering the AI growth potential and upcoming monetary environment,28-30 times forward earnings may not be too expensive for the world’s best tech companies. The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio is around 36 now. While historically, this is relatively high, the all-time high was around 44. Also, the Shiller P/E ratio could move to an ATH in this bull market cycle. This dynamic implies that earnings, valuations, and stock prices could continue to appreciate from here. Due to the solid technical and fundamental dynamic, I am leaving my SPX year-end target at 6,200. Continue reading →

[embedded content]The Silver Surge: David Morgan’s Insights on Market Trends | https://www.themorganreport.com
In this episode, David Morgan from The Morgan Report discusses a wide range of topics including the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO’s involvement, and the broader implications for the U.S. economy. He shares his views on geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding China and Taiwan, and explores the potential for economic shifts depending on the global political landscape. David provides an in-depth analysis of the precious metals market, focusing on gold and silver, and highlights the increasing investment by Chinese citizens in physical silver. The discussion also delves into the advantages of investing in mining and royalty companies, the impacts of inflation on markets, and the unforeseen potential in the oil industry. David caps off the conversation by introducing his upcoming documentary ‘Silver Sunrise,’ which aims to scrutinize the current monetary system and explore sustainable solutions for the future.
Watch this video on The Silver Surge: David Morgan’s Insights on Market Trends, then please share with your friends and family on social media and use the caption: The Silver Surge: David Morgan’s Insights on Market Trends.Market Analysis — Investing — Trading Methods At The Morgan Report — Starting As Low As $50 | http://www.themorganreport.com/join.
Starting your own precious metals savings program is an easy way to automatically save in gold and silver. This makes it easy to maintain a disciplined program for increasing your ownership of history’s most proven stores of value. Learn more here.

Let My Passion Create Your Wealth.
I’ve Been Helping My Subscribers Weather the Current Economic Mess. Now I Invite You to Join My Growing Circle of Successful Investors.
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation, and asset protection.
Thus was born The Morgan Report – since then we’ve helped 11,000-plus members scattered over the globe in every continent and over 100,000+ e-newsletter subscribers have read our weekly e-newsletter — This Week’s View from The Morgan Report.
Through our publication, The Morgan Report, we provide you with ways to achieve greater financial security and wealth in all sorts of environments.
Learn more and become an insider for The Morgan Report, click the link below…
http://www.themorganreport.com/join 
Special Riches In Resources Free Report
Because there is a 100% failure rate of ALL fiat money throughout history, you will learn what to do by obtaining your Free Report. Just enter your first name, your primary email address and click the Get Special Report button below.

Our mission statement reads…
“To teach and empower people to understand the benefits of an honest monetary system.” Today’s monetary system is based upon a lie. The lie is that you can get something for nothing, or perhaps more simply stated, wealth can be printed. History has shown throughout 5000 years that whenever a country has tried to maintain this illusion (lie), failure has been the result. We invite you to learn more about what The Morgan Report can do for you. Click on the Learn More About The Morgan Report button now!
Learn More About The Morgan Report *
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NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will likely not cut U.S. interest rates as deeply as the bond market expects due to a resilient economy and inflation remaining sticky, the BlackRock Investment Institute said in a note on Monday.The U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in over four years on Wednesday, with speculation over the size of the first rate cut creating volatility across financial markets in the run-up to the decision.Traders in rates futures are betting on about 120 basis points in cuts this year and a total of 250 basis points by the end of 2025. This would bring interest rates to about 2.8%-2.9% by the end of next year from the current 5.25%-5.5% range.A reduction in interest rates of this magnitude reflects recession fears that are overdone, as well as expectations of a sustained decline in inflation which, instead, is likely to cool off only temporarily, said the institute, an arm of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.”As the Fed readies to start cutting, markets are pricing in cuts as deep as those in past recessions. We think such expectations are overdone,” it said.Despite a recent uptick in unemployment, employment is still growing, and supply constraints will continue to put upwards pressure on prices, it said.”An aging workforce, persistent budget deficits and the impact of structural shifts like geopolitical fragmentation should keep inflation and policy rates higher over the medium term,” it said.The institute is underweight, or bearish, on the prospects of short-term U.S. Treasuries as current yields reflect expectations of deep rate cuts.It maintains an overweight on U.S. stocks, instead, on optimism around the impact of artificial intelligence.(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Andrea Ricci) Continue reading →

When the Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, officials are expected to mark the end of an era as they cut interest rates for the first time in four years and chart a course for lower rates over the next two years.“This is a big meeting,” said former Kansas City Fed president Esther George. “It’s one that’s been foreshadowed since late last year. It’s long been expected.”The central bank is expected to lower rates by a quarter percentage point to a new range of 5.0-5.25% from its 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% on Wednesday when their policy meeting concludes. The actions will officially mark the termination of the most aggressive inflation-fighting campaign since the 1980s.Investors bets on how deeply the Fed will cut rates for the first time have been fluctuating widely. As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in nearly 50-50 chance of the Fed trims its policy rate by 25 basis points verses a steeper 50 basis points. Those odds compare with an 85% chance for a 25 basis point cut on the back of key inflation and jobs data over the past week.Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cardsThe Fed is set to cut rates roughly six weeks before the presidential election, something Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump and other Republicans have said the central bank should refrain from until after the election.The rate cut will mark the first in a series of cuts, as the central bank’s new era of easy money is expected to last through 2025 and 2026. That shift will ripple through the US economy by making it cheaper for Americans to borrow what they need to buy houses and cars or credit card purchases.Businesses will also have an easier time taking out loans to fund their operations.Fed officials will release new interest rate projections, known as the “dot plot,” for how many rate cuts officials see in the remainder of this year and next.Cuts at last? Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell s in Washington, D.C., last month. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images) (Nathan Howard via Getty Images)Luke Tilley, veteran chief economist for Wilmington Trust, expects the Fed to cut by 25 basis points — and to lay out a path to cut twice more this year, also in 25 basis point increments, followed by cuts next year at six out of the Fed’s eight policy meetings. He added that if the Fed can cut rates by 50 basis points in subsequent meetings without spooking markets, it will.Tilley believes the Fed is behind the curve when it comes to cutting rates because “there would be no talk of 50 right now if they had just started reducing in July and they were on a slower path.” Still, Tilley said, it doesn’t matter whether the Fed lowers rates by 75 basis points or 100 basis points overall this year.“It’s more the trajectory, how they talk about it and how they frame it because their words count for more than their actions,” Tilley said, referencing markets pricing in future Fed actions.As for ex-Kansas City Fed chief George, she at a minimum she expects a rate cut of 25 basis points every meeting for the rest of the year. (There are three, including Wednesday’s.)She estimates the Fed will cut rates by 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points before they may pause and take stock of how the level on rates is relative to how the economy is faring. But the thing she’s really watching for is “this is a committee that will have to develop a narrative around the 50 basis point rate cut idea.”Meanwhile, Fed governor Chris Waller has said that he’s open-minded about the size and pace of cuts based on the data — and if the data suggests the need for larger cuts, then he will support that. Waller said he was a big advocate of front-loading rate hikes when inflation accelerated in 2022, and he will be an advocate of front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.A big meeting: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (R) with New York Fed president John Williams and then-Kansas City Fed president Esther George in 2018. (REUTERS/Ann Saphir) (REUTERS / Reuters)The story behind the storyOfficials are looking to cut rates, having gained confidence inflation is likely heading back down to their 2% target. The latest reading on inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, showed inflation continues to move down slowly, marking the fifth consecutive good inflation report. After fears inflation was stalling in the first quarter, officials had said they needed more than a quarter’s worth of good inflation data to gain confidence inflation was truly falling. Inflation, based on CPI, rose at 3.2% in August and July, compared with 3.3% in June, 3.4% in May, and 3.6% in April.Read more: Cell phones, furniture, used cars: Here’s where prices are easing up as inflation cooldown continuesInflation expectations are also dropping. The difference in the yield on a 10-year inflation-protected government bond and a standard bond of the same maturity, a measure of expected inflation, is around the lowest since early 2021. Inflation expectations over the next two years are for CPI inflation of just 1.5%, under the Fed’s 2% target.Job watchAt the same time, the job market is cooling, as employment decelerated over the summer, with 118,000 jobs created in June, 89,000 in July, and 142,000 in August — all below the average monthly gain of 202,000 over the prior 12 months.The weakening has caused Fed officials to turn more attention toward the labor market and away from inflation.Fed Chair Jay Powell said in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., in late August that the Fed “will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” He noted that the Fed does not “seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions” and that the current level of the policy rate gives the Fed “ample room” to lower rates in response to any weakening in the job market.Fed watchers expect Powell to reiterate many of these messages communicated in Jackson Hole.No recession, but danger lurks: Wilmington Trust’s Luke Tilley. (Tim Leedy/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images) (MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images via Getty Images)PredictionsOn Wednesday, Fed officials will also release forecasts for unemployment, inflation, and the economic outlook. Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.George said she sees a couple of scenarios, including one where Powell could set the stage for cutting by larger increments. “He could tell a story around 50,” said George. “He could come out at this meeting and say, ‘We’ll move more aggressively to make sure we do our part around the labor market.'”But Wilmer Stith, bond fund manager for Wilmington Trust, said, “I think Powell plays it right down the middle.” Stith added that the Fed is very conscientious of the pain associated with a higher unemployment rate, but also conscientious of the cost of living for the average American.EY’s chief economist Gregory Daco also agreed that “gradualism” will prevail at the meeting, but said that there may be a reference to larger rate cuts at upcoming meetings.Are recession fears still looming? There was concern at the July jobs report that the economy had entered recession, but a rebound in the August jobs tally allayed concerns.Wilmington Trust’s Tilley expects the job market to continue expanding.“We do not think the labor market is rolling over into a recession. That said, it is the biggest concern,” he said.Tilley still believes the soft landing is in place, but said, “The economy is slowing and is vulnerable to a shock.”And it wouldn’t necessarily take a big disturbance. Tilley’s examples: a big oil shock that could hurt consumer spending or a plunge in the stock market that could cause businesses to pull back on hiring. He also said some policies of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — like tariffs across the board or tax hikes — could end up hitting the consumer next year.Jennifer Schonberger is a veteran financial journalist covering markets, the economy, and investing. At Yahoo Finance she covers the Federal Reserve, cryptocurrencies, and the intersection of business and politics. Follow her on X @Jenniferisms.Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisionsRead the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance Continue reading →

By Gertrude Chavez-DreyfussNEW YORK (Reuters) – Futures on the fed funds rate, which measures the cost of unsecured overnight loans between banks, have priced in a nearly 60% chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, LSEG calculations showed.That was up from 45% last Friday and from 25% following the release of an in-line U.S. consumer price index report last week.The Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday and is widely expected to reduce the benchmark overnight interest rate currently in the 5.25% to 5.50% range. The rate reduction, however, has turned into a coin flip between 50 and 25 bps over the last few days.For 2024, rate futures have factored nearly 120 bps in easing, and about 250 bps in cuts by September of 2025.Up until last Friday, the odds were pretty much tilted toward a 25-bp cut. But reports by the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times late Thursday saying a 50-bp rate reduction is still an option, and comments from former New York Fed President Bill Dudley arguing for an outsized cut, triggered a pivot in market expectations.On Monday, Dudley reiterated his stance on the need for the Fed to do a big cut on Wednesday. In an opinion piece on Bloomberg News, the former Fed official noted that the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment has become more balanced, which suggests monetary policy should be neutral, neither restrictive nor boosting economic activity.”Yet short-term interest rates remain far above neutral. This disparity needs to be corrected as quickly as possible,” Dudley wrote.But whether the Fed goes 50 or 25 bps, Boris Kovacevic, global macro strategist at Convera in Vienna, said it does not really matter in the end “given the long lag and transmission mechanism, but it does matter in terms of how they want to be perceived.””If they go 50, there is chance that the Fed has some information that investors don’t have and that recession risks are more likely than currently anticipated and priced in.”(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; editing by Jonathan Oatis) Continue reading →