Category Archives: Silver

Excerpt from this week’s: Technical Scoop: Rising Inflation, Golden Haven, Oily Bottom

Copper prices have broken out and are rising. This is a sign of inflationary pressures. Copper is also a leading indicator for gold. As noted, gold has already been making new all-time highs. As the chaos continues, we expect it to rise further. We continue to have targets up around $3,600 although expect resistance along the way. There continues to be signs that gold is being pulled out of the London markets and transferred to the U.S. to avoid tariffs down the road. The only bothering sign for gold, at least in the near term is what appears as an ascending wedge triangle. If correct it is short-term bearish and gold, if it were to break under $2,900, could in effect see a decline to $2,700. Gold stocks took it on the chin on Friday Feb 21, 2025 alongside the 700+ point drop for the DJI. Not a good sign. If we do get that break (a real possibility) the next move up for gold would take us to $3,000 and higher.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury note vs. CPI rate of change 2016-2025

 

Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, www.bls.gov

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Source: www.stockcharts.com

 Markets & Trends

 

 

 

% Gains (Losses)                              Trends

 

 

Close

Dec 31/24

Close

Feb 21/25

Week

YTD

Daily (Short Term)

Weekly (Intermediate)

Monthly (Long Term)

Stock Market Indices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&P 500

5,881.63

6,013.13 (new highs) *

(1.7)%

2.2%

up (weak)

up

up

Dow Jones Industrials

42,544.22

43,428.02

(2.5)%

2.1%

neutral

up

up

                     Dow Jones Transport

16,030.66

16,034.36

(3.5)%

0.9%

down (weak)

up

up

NASDAQ

19,310.79

19,524.01

(2.5)%

1.1%

neutral

up

up

S&P/TSX Composite

24,796.40

25,147.03

(1.3)%

1.7%

neutral

up

up

S&P/TSX Venture (CDNX)

597.87

634.69

(0.9)%

6.2%

up

up

neutral

S&P 600 (small)

1,408.17

1,378.06

(3.6)%

(2.1)%

down

up

up

MSCI World

2,304.50

2,478.41

0.2%

7.6%

up

up

up

Bitcoin

93,467.13

95,610.98

(1.4)%

2.3%

down

up

up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Mining Stock Indices

 

                                         

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Bugs Index (HUI)

275.58

320.59

(1.6)%

16.3%

up

up

up

TSX Gold Index (TGD)

336.87

402.50

(0.4)%

19.5%

up

up

up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield

4.58%

4.43%

(1.1)%

(3.3)%

 

 

 

Cdn. 10-Year Bond CGB yield

3.25%

3.13%

1.0%

(3.7)%

 

 

 

Recession Watch Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. 2-year 10-year Treasury spread

0.33%

0.23%

9.5%

(30.3)%

 

 

 

Cdn 2-year 10-year CGB spread

0.30%

0.39%

5.4%

30.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currencies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US$ Index

108.44

106.64

0.1%

(1.7)%

down

up

up

Canadian $

69.49

.7025

(0.4)%

1.1%

up

down

down

Euro

103.54

104.59

(0.3)%

1.0%

up

down

down

Swiss Franc

110.16

111.45

0.3%

1.2%

up

down

neutral

British Pound

125.11

126.29

0.3%

0.9%

up

down

neutral

Japanese Yen

63.57

67.03

2.1%

5.4%

up

neutral

 down

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Precious Metals

 

                       

 

 

 

 

 

Gold

2,641.00

2,953.20 (new highs) *

1.8%

11.8%

up

up

up

Silver

29.24

33.01

0.5%

12.9%

up

up

up

Platinum

910.50

987.7

(3.1)%

8.5%

neutral

up

up (weak)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Base Metals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Palladium

909.80

990.90

(1.8)%

8.9%

up (weak)

up (weak)

down

Copper

4.03

4.56

(2.2)%

13.2%

up

up

up (weak)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil

71.72

        70.40

(0.4)%

(1.8)%

down

down (weak)

down

Nat Gas

3.63

4.27 (new highs)

14.5%

17.6%

up

up

neutral

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Source: www.stockcharts.com

* New All-Time Highs

 

Note: For an explanation of the trends, see the glossary at the end of this article.

New highs/lows refer to new 52-week highs/lows and, in some cases, all-time highs.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Rising Inflation, Golden Haven, Oily Bottom

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

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That’s when you have a gold run or a run on the bank. And that’s what could be—I want to use the word could, not would—taking place right now,” says David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report. In an interview with Daniela Cambone, he compares the recent gold supply crunch in London, much of which was triggered by tariff threats as investors bought cheaper gold in London and sold it for a higher price in New York, to a traditional bank run. “Some gold holders started to wake up and say, wait a minute, there are delays in the LBMA. There shouldn’t be, or at least not that long. I’m going to get my gold back.” Additionally, he states that some of the gold stored in Fort Knox was coin melt, meaning it was taken from gold coins, which are typically made of 90% gold, not pure gold. “For a gold contract to be valid, it has to be 999 fine. In other words, it’s just gold, it’s not gold and another metal.
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Gold futures were rising, holding close to record highs as geopolitical and trade tensions boost safe-haven demand.Futures were up 0.3% at $2,961.70 a troy ounce, close to an all-time high of $2,973.40/oz, set on Thursday.Gold recorded its eighth consecutive week of gains and a fresh high in recent days on fears that the U.S. could unwind its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia, ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Continue reading →

Gold Revaluation Moves from Fringe to Mainstream Over the last year, and especially the past 72 hours, the topic of … Continue reading →

Globally, central banks’ annual acquisition of physical gold has risen above 1,000 metric tons for three straight years. Analysts are … Continue reading →

Gold heads for its eighth weekly gain on haven demand, despite falling from Thursday’s record high over $2950 an ounce. … Continue reading →

President Donald Trump said his administration is going to audit the U.S. gold reserves kept at Fort Knox in Kentucky.
“We’re going to go to Fort Knox, the fabled Fort Knox, to make sure the gold is there,” President Trump said Wednesday on Air Force One.

A drive to audit Fort Knox has gained steam from comments by Elon Musk on X recently. Over the past few decades, conspiracy theories have emerged from time to time about whether the government is being truthful about the amount of gold stored there because of the fort’s high security.
The Treasury Department gives the exact amounts of the U.S. gold reserves on its website and says there are 147,341,858.382 troy ounces in Fort Knox.
“I think if this administration presses for an audit, that’ll be a good thing for everybody,” said Alamos Gold CEO John McCluskey on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday.

Stock chart icon

Gold futures, 1 year

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments from earlier this month, to “monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet for the American people” also added to recent investor speculation that the U.S. government should audit its gold reserves and perhaps revalue them. The Treasury Department’s current gold holdings are priced at $42 per ounce, a level that is set by law and hasn’t changed since 1973.
Spot gold on Thursday rose, hitting another record high of $2,954.69 earlier in the session. That’s bullion’s tenth record high of the year. Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — US stocks were set for a modest retreat from their latest record highs as concerns around trade tariffs … Continue reading →

Gold has been free-floating now for nearly 54 years. Today it is setting records as we approach US$3,000. That’s a long way from $35. The London gold market is experiencing shortages. Why?

The answer is economic anxiety and sharply increased demand, particularly from Asia. Futures contracts that are normally rolled over or cashed out are instead demanding delivery of the gold. Each futures contract represents 100 ounces of gold. Fearing tariffs and more, traders are rushing to convert to gold and get it out of the U.K. before tariffs hit it. With supplies dwindling in London, there is also a rush for central banks to borrow gold. Apparently, it now takes up to four weeks to get gold out of the Bank of England (BOE) vs. the normal few days or up to a week. Traders want to hedge their position in the NY COMEX market where futures now trade above the London spot market. The pressure is causing gold prices to rise.

Don’t expect this to end any time soon. The following chart shows the LBMA London Gold Holdings. The one to focus on is the available stocks (green). None of the other categories are available for delivery. That includes ETF holdings, BOE holdings, and reserves.

Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

Silver stocks are also being depleted. Again, only the green area is available for delivery. The rest is held in ETFs.

Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

A better picture of the declining gold and silver stocks at the LBMA.

Source: www.lbma.org.uk

Revaluation of Gold Upward?

There has been talk of late of revaluing gold. With geopolitical tensions rising, domestic political tensions also rising with the surge of right-wing groups, including neo-Nazis, and the U.S. dollar’s dominance under attack, central banks have been stockpiling gold. Many believe it is not a question of if but when gold is revalued in order to monetize the debt. Fiat currencies are under attack. Russia and China and India have been stockpiling gold in order to back their currencies and make a move away from the U.S. dollar. All this has led to talks about a monetary reset and even a new global financial system. Bretton Woods 2? Or is it 3?

The U.S. has the world’s largest reserves of gold: 8,133.5 metric tonnes or 261,498,926.2 troy ounces. Many would be surprised to learn that the U.S. still carries this gold on its books at $42.20/ounce. That means it has a valuation of $11,041,059,957.90 or $11.0 billion. Based on today’s price of roughly $2,900/ounce, it should be worth $758,346,886,098.90 or $758.3 billion. That’s a long way from the U.S. federal debt of $36.5 trillion.

Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

It is highly unlikely the entire amount would be covered in any revaluation. That would require gold to be priced at over $139,000/ounce (effectively $36.5 trillion/261,498 thousand). More realistic would be to revalue it at 10% of the debt outstanding or $13,950/ounce. That’s a long distance from today’s $2,900.

It is not as if this hasn’t been done before. It happened in the 1930s when gold was revalued up to $35/ounce from $20.67. The gold standard had been abandoned and the world was in the midst of a depression. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 revalued gold and made it illegal for private citizens, including businesses and banks, to hold gold. Coins were largely exempt. What it did was to devalue the U.S. dollar by increasing inflation. It also helped set off a mining boom of exploration and increasing production. A reminder that while the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) was falling 89% from 1929–1932, Homestake Mining (later Barrick Gold) rose 400%. The $35/ounce was later used to peg the conversion of U.S. dollars to gold under Bretton Woods.

We can’t speculate as to whether this will happen. But in a world with growing inflation (stagflation?), tariffs, supply chain issues, currency wars, mining deficits, and central banks accumulating gold, particularly Russia and China, it is all a hedge against growing instability and potential economic chaos.

Is there any problem with this? Backing the U.S. dollar with gold has been done before. It’s the old gold standard. The trouble with that, however, is it makes it difficult to print more U.S. dollars when needed. That was always a constraint under the gold standard. Commercial banks and even central banks recognized its limitations and fought to end the constraints, thus ending the gold standard. Backing the debt could work as long as the price of gold rises with the debt. Since 2000 when that chart gets underway, gold is up 911%. The U.S. federal debt has leaped 538%. It seems that the gold community is already on the case. Too bad the U.S. GDP has gone up only 216% in the same time period.

For currencies the US$ Index fell 1.3% continuing its recent weakness. The euro jumped 1.6%, the Swiss franc was up 1.1%, the pound sterling up 1.4% and the Cdn$ gained 0.7%. Only the Japanese yen fell off 0.7%. Gold made all-time highs again up 0.5% despite Friday’s wipeout, silver led up 1.3%, while platinum fell down 0.2%. Palladium gained 2.7% while copper continued upward gaining 1.5%. WTI oil fell 0.4% while Brent crude was up a small 0.1%. Natural gas (NG) was up 12.7% thanks to snowy cold weather while NG at the Dutch Hub fell 10.2%.

Friday was a bit of wipeout for gold, gold stocks and silver. But it appeared to be driven by profit taking that snowballed. Is the gold upswing over? We don’t believe so but recovery this week would help. The stock markets still look iffy and topping but if new highs happen then we’d have to say we are headed higher.

Markets Continue

Selected Performance November 5, 2024–February 13, 2025

 

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Markets continue to be positive with stocks up, gold up, and Bitcoin up. Not doing as well are oil and bonds. The stock market continues to form what we believe is a distribution top pattern. A breakdown for the S&P 500 under 6,000 could prove fatal. But the real points to watch are under 5,700 and especially 5,400. Under 4,900 we officially enter a bear market. Naturally new highs will keep this market alive. The MAG7 are mixed, with some, including Meta and Netflix, doing well others, especially Tesla, not doing so well. Tesla is already in an official bear market.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Gold Depletion, Trajectory Comparison, Languishing Oil

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

Bonds are generally languishing with a slight downward bias (yield). The Friday, February 14 release of January’s retail sales was a bit of a shock as sales fell 0.9% when only a 0.1% drop was expected. That helped long bonds. But rising inflation keeps pressure on the Fed to not lower interest rates. Gold is continuing its upward march and we see no signs of a top forming. However, pullbacks, even steep ones, can occasionally be expected. That’s a sign of strength, not weakness. $2,900 is support, but under $2,700 we’d be concerned. $3,000 is in sight. Silver still languishes, as do gold stocks. However, we are seeing some buying coming into the junior gold mining market. That’s a potentially positive development. Oil prices are trying to find support in the $70 range. There remains the risk of accelerated tensions in the Middle East, particularly surrounding Iran. Continue reading →