Category Archives: Silver

A groundbreaking pilot program in China now allows 10 major insurance companies – including PICC Property & Casualty and China Life Insurance – to allocate up to 1% of their assets to gold bullion. Continue reading →

Futures rose 0.7% to $2,948.40 a troy ounce, close to the record $2,968.50 a troy ounce set during Tuesday’s session.The precious metal has had a strong rally so far this year, surpassing the above-consensus expectations of MUFG, analysts said in a note. The yellow metal is now closing in on $3,000 an ounce, which the Japanese bank had estimated would take until the third quarter of 2025. Gold’s brisk start has much further to run, MUFG analysts said. Continue reading →

Over the past few months, I’ve maintained a consistently bullish outlook on copper, anticipating a rebound off the $4 per pound support level and a strong rally.

This scenario has particularly intrigued me because a surge in copper would provide a significant tailwind for silver. I believe copper’s sluggish performance has been a key factor holding silver back, as the two metals are highly correlated, with arbitrage algorithms reinforcing their relationship.

In the past week, my expectations were validated when copper broke out of a major triangle pattern that had been forming since May.

As the chart below illustrates, copper rebounded off the $4 support level at the start of January, quickly surging higher and breaking out of the triangle pattern—a strong signal that further bullish momentum is likely ahead.

Several factors have fueled this rally, including technical buy programs kicking in, stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariffs, and expectations of a major stimulus program as China’s economy continues to suffer.

Additionally, robust demand stemming from electric vehicles, data centers, and renewable energy has further supported copper’s strength.The longer-term weekly chart provides valuable perspective on copper’s recent breakout and highlights the critical $5 to $5.20 resistance zone overhead—my next price target now that copper has broken out.

A decisive break above this zone should herald a full-blown bull market, which would also be highly beneficial for silver. I’ll explore this correlation in more detail later in the article.I frequently show a proprietary indicator I developed, the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), which helps validate silver’s price movements and filter out potential fakeouts.

This index is the average price of copper and gold, with copper adjusted by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from disproportionately influencing the index. The SSPI closely mirrors silver’s price movement, even though silver itself is not an input.

I’ve been highlighting how the SSPI has remained below the critical 2,600 to 2,640 resistance zone, emphasizing that a breakout above this level would serve as a strong bullish confirmation for silver.

As of Friday, thanks to the impressive rallies in both copper and gold, that long-awaited breakout has finally happened! This signals that a strong breakout in silver is likely imminent.As the chart below illustrates, gold is in a strong bull market and recently broke out:Another key factor that could drive copper, silver, and gold even higher is a potential decline in the U.S. Dollar Index. Since commodities typically move inversely to the dollar, a decline in the index would provide a strong tailwind for these metals.

Since October, the U.S. Dollar Index has staged an unexpected and powerful rally—largely sparked by the growing realization that Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidential election—which has put significant pressure on copper, silver, and gold.

Now that President Donald Trump is officially in office, there has been a “sell the news” reaction as traders reassess whether the dollar’s sharp surge was overdone.

Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a widely followed momentum indicator—has shown significant weakening and divergence, a pattern that often precedes pullbacks. The U.S. Dollar Index recently broke below its uptrend line, which had been intact since the rally began in October.

If it decisively closes below the critical 107 to 107.5 support zone, it should signal a deeper decline—an outcome that would send copper, silver, and gold soaring.Another potential bullish catalyst for copper, silver, and gold is the possibility of a massive stimulus “bazooka” from China to counter its deepening economic crisis.

With its real estate and stock markets plunging, an estimated $18 trillion in household wealth has been wiped out—an economic crisis akin to China’s version of the 2008 Great Recession.

Meanwhile, Chinese government bond yields have collapsed to record lows, signaling a deepening deflationary spiral.Finally, with all that in mind, let’s turn our focus to silver itself. COMEX silver futures recently broke out of a consolidation pattern that had been forming since early November—a promising bullish signal.

The next key test is securing a strong close above the $32 to $33 resistance zone, which has repeatedly acted as a barrier since May.

In short, copper’s breakout signals further upside for the metal, which bodes well for silver due to its strong correlation.

At the same time, gold remains in a powerful bull market, creating additional support for silver, which tends to take cues from both metals. If the U.S. Dollar Index finally experiences a meaningful pullback, it would provide another major tailwind for all three metals, given their inverse relationship with the dollar.

The final hurdle for silver is a decisive close above the key $33 resistance level—once that happens, a new bull market in silver should be underway. Continue reading →

Gold is the barometer of current events, and as such, it sends out a very strong signal. At a time … Continue reading →

(Bloomberg) — Shares edged higher as traders parsed the latest earnings news and looked forward to a key US inflation … Continue reading →

Gold futures were falling, but they remained close to record highs.Futures were down 0.5% at $2,916.70 a troy ounce after climbing as high as $2,968.50 in the prior session.There are several key drivers behind gold’s all-time high, Metals Focus’s Neil Meader said. Continue reading →

Silver’s true value is being suppressed by banks and futures markets, but growing demand and shrinking supply could break the … Continue reading →

President Trump has signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports into the US, … Continue reading →

Excerpt from this week’s: Technical Scoop: Unexpected Jobs, Golden Safety, Drill Pressure 

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Another week, another record high for gold prices. The gold bugs are happy. But silver bugs remained baffled as silver continues to be in the doldrums, well off its 1980 and 2011 high near $50 ($175 and $67 in inflation- adjusted dollars). In inflation-adjusted dollars, gold still hasn’t exceeded that 1980 high. Gold needs to get over $3,300 to achieve that. Still gold’s run has been impressive, now up 9.3% on the year, including 1.9% this past week. Silver impresses as well, up 10.9% so far but only a feeble 0.6% this past week. The gold stocks continue to rise with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up 4.7% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) gaining 3.8%.

Other precious metals and near precious metals also have been rising, but not so much this past week. Platinum fell 2.2% while palladium was down 8.3%. However, copper broke out, rising 7.2% (see chart and commentary that follows).  

We are seeing numerous recommendations from mainstream brokers and business writers to hold gold. Gold has caught all their attention. By that we mean physical gold in coins, bars, etc. Gold has no liability; however, gold stocks leveraged to gold prices do have liability. ETFs hold gold, but one needs to check how the fund operates as some may also hold stock. Gold, unlike Bitcoin, is real as you can touch it. As a monetary metal, gold has been around for 5,000 years and has acted as currency. The collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968 led to the U.S., under President Nixon, ending the gold standard due to calls on U.S. gold that would have left the U.S.’s vaults empty. At the time, U.S. dollars were convertible into gold at $35/ounce. Following the collapse of the London gold pool a two tiered market developed with the official rate still $35 while in the

other market gold began to trade higher setting the stage for the end of the gold standard. We then entered the world of fiat currencies, where we have been ever since.

Gold is rising because of fear of tariffs and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and just about anybody. Gold, as we have so often stated, is a safe haven in times of geopolitical, domestic-political, and financial uncertainty. Today we have that in spades. Chaos and volatilty remain our themes for 2025.

London vaults are being cleaned out of gold (and silver). The amount of gold held in London fell a sharp 4.9 million troy ounces in January—a record. Traders, instead of rolling over futures contracts or cashing out have increasingly been asking for physical. They then take the physical and transfer it to vaults in the U.S. Fear of tariffs is driving the move. There is also increased demand from Asia.  London still has a lot of gold, but supplies are dwindling. Lease rates (borrowing costs) are rising, but discounts are being seen for gold stored there. The same thing has been happening with silver. This outflow is reminder of similarities that sparked the collapse of the London gold pool in 1968. All this is occuring despite no word from the Trump administration that gold and silver would be subject to tariffs.

Gold is still rising in that channel that could take us up to $3,000 or higher. We are encountering some resistance at $2,900 and more might occur once we hit $3,000. That’s not unusual. Support is now $2,800. A breakdown under $2,700 could signal more losses. Under $2,500 we could be headed for $2,400. However, we believe, given the strong fundamentals for gold, the odds of a breakdown are low. Even in a stock market crash gold outperforms. Not so much the gold stocks.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Copper has broken out. The downward correction that started with the top at $5.20 back in May 2024 appears to over. The correction unfolded in a good ABC-type correction. The correction formed a symmetrical triangle. With the breakout, the potential targets are up to $5.70. There is resistance at $4.70/$4.80. Once over $5.00, new highs become highly probable. The leading copper producer is Freeport McMoran (FCX), while Chile is the country with the largest copper production with some 27% of global production. Chile also holds the largest reserves, estimated at roughly 19% of global reserves. We are currently entering overbought territory (RSI 72.4), but we note that overbought as a condition can remain for some time as we saw back in April/May 2024. Volume has picked up. We view copper as a leading indicator for gold. Copper is considered a near precious metal as coins in the past were made of copper. Copper with zinc is brass while copper with tin is bronze. Both brass and bronze are predominantly copper.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Frustratingly, silver still lags gold by a considerable margin. The gold/silver ratio sits at 89. In October 2024 it did fall to 78, but since then gold has been outperforming. The all-time low for the gold/silver ratio was 14.6, set at the height of the late 1970s frenzy. At the other end, the high was 131.4 set during the 2020 pandemic crash. Since that high, we appear to be forming a potential symmetrical triangle top. We need to break under 75 to tell us that the next move should show silver outperforming gold. Near term, a break under 85 could confirm a top. Silver continues making what appears as a symmetrical triangle. But we need a firm breakout over $34 to suggest we’ll make new highs above $35.07. Targets could be up to $39/$40. A breakdown under $31 would be negative and could project down to $25. We don’t expect that, but do note it.

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The upward march for the gold stocks continues. This past week the ARCA Gold Bugs Index (HUI) gained 4.7% while the TSX Gold Index (TGD) jumped 3.8%. What’s important was that the TGD exceeded 400, suggesting to us that we should see new highs above the October high of 417. The all-time high set in 2011 remains still away at 455. But that’s better than the HUI, which is still down 49% from its 2011 high. Some of the key gold stocks have been making not only 52-week highs but new all-time highs. That bodes well going forward. We are also seeing some movement in the junior gold mining market, many of which trade on the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX). On the year, the TGD is up 20.5% while the HUI is up 18.8%. So far, they have been the best- performing sectors. A break of 390 would be negative for the near term, but under 350 would start a bear market. The correction from the October unfolded nicely in ABC fashion.

Read the FULL report here: Technical Scoop: Unexpected Jobs, Golden Safety, Drill Pressure 

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →

Gold hits a record high above $2,900 an ounce early Monday on U.S. President Donald Trump’s promised steel and aluminum … Continue reading →

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (not pictured) at the White House in Washington, U.S., Feb. 7, 2025. 
Kent Nishimura | Reuters

President Donald Trump ordered a halt to the production of new pennies, which he said will help reduce “wasteful” government spending.
“For far too long the United States has minted pennies which literally cost us more than 2 cents,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “This is so wasteful! I have instructed my Secretary of the US Treasury to stop producing new pennies. Let’s rip the waste out of our great nations budget, even if it’s a penny at a time,” Trump wrote.

It’s not clear whether the president has the authority to stop the manufacture of the currency. According to the U.S. Constitution, coinage power, as recognized by the Supreme Court, is “exclusive” to Congress. Federal law says the Treasury Secretary can mint and issue coins as necessary for the needs of the United States.
But at least one analyst on Wall Street expects that the penny’s days are numbered. TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg said the halt will likely to pass judicial review, leading to a shortage in the coin.
“We believe this order would survive judicial review, which is why this is likely to occur,” Seiberg wrote on Monday. “We worry about this leading to a shortage of pennies, which could force merchants to pay banks more for coins. It also adds legal risk for merchants and banks. That could create the crisis needed to force Congress to act.”
Seiberg said he expects this could support the move toward electronic payments, bolstering companies such as Visa, MasterCard and other real-time payment networks.
What is clear is that pennies cost to make than they are worth. In 2024, the U.S. Mint spent 3.69 cents to manufacture each penny, according to an annual report. That meant the cost of each penny has run above its face value for a 19th straight fiscal year.
The latest U.S. Mint report suggests the nickel better watch its back too. Each five-cent piece costs the Mint 13.78 cents to make. Continue reading →