Precious Metals News- Gold price breaks records above $3,100 as parabolic rally defies gravity, silver price eyes breakout - KITCO March 31, 2025
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- Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $34 despite falling - FXStreet March 31, 2025
- March 31st is 'buy silver day' - let’s break the banks’ hold on silver - KITCO March 31, 2025
Category Archives: Silver
Copper is on the Verge of a Bull Market—And That’s Great News for Silver
The stars are aligning for copper, which has surged 25% after breaking out of its triangle pattern and now sits just below the key $5–$5.20 resistance zone.
For months, I’ve been bullish on copper. I predicted copper would rebound and enter a long-term bull market, pulling silver higher due to their strong correlation and the influence of arbitrage algorithms reinforcing that price relationship.
When I first shared my bullish outlook, copper was struggling at $4 per pound. Since then, it has surged to $5—a substantial 25% increase in just a few months. And based on current trends, copper’s bull market may just be getting started, as I’ll explain in this update.
Copper has been surging since the start of the year for several key reasons, including the pullback in the U.S. dollar (as I’ll show shortly), expectations of tariffs on U.S. copper imports, China’s special action plan to boost spending by increasing incomes, and strong demand across multiple sectors, particularly the electrical grid, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy technologies.
Let’s dive into copper’s technicals, starting with the daily chart. In late 2024, copper found strong support at the key $4 per pound level, rebounded, and then broke out of a triangle pattern at the start of February.
That breakout signaled a major surge, and the uptrend remains solid and intact. Given the current momentum, I believe copper still has plenty of fuel left to climb higher.
Copper’s weekly chart reveals a major resistance zone between $5 and $5.20, a level that has held firm for the past three years.
However, if copper manages to close above this range, it will break into blue-sky territory, surging to a new all-time high and fully launching into a powerful bull market.
Stepping back to the monthly chart, a bullish ascending triangle pattern has been forming over the past several years. Once it breaks out, it should trigger a bull run similar to the 2020 rally that preceded it.
Based on the measured move principle in technical analysis, this breakout could drive copper up by $3 per pound, reaching $8—a potential 60% gain from current levels.
Copper’s likely upcoming bull market would align with the outlook of French billionaire and commodities trader Pierre Andurand, who predicted that copper prices could soar to $40,000 per tonne in the coming years—a more than fourfold increase from the current price of $9,853 per tonne.
Explaining his bullish stance, Andurand stated, “We are moving towards a doubling of demand growth for copper due to the electrification of the world, including electric vehicles, solar panels, wind farms, as well as military usage and data centers.”
Goldman Sachs has dubbed copper “the new oil” due to its essential role in clean energy technologies, and Visual Capitalist recently published a fascinating infographic on this theme.
Copper earns this title because its demand is expected to surge in the coming decades, while oil consumption is projected to decline as the world transitions away from fossil fuels. Reflecting this shift, the IMF forecasts a 66% increase in copper demand between 2020 and 2040.
As a commodities investor, I closely follow copper not only on its own merits but also as a silver investor and analyst, given their strong correlation. The last time I ran the numbers a few months ago, their correlation stood at a solid 0.771 (out of 1).
This relationship exists for several reasons: both are industrial metals, both trade inversely to the U.S. dollar, and trading algorithms further reinforce their price connection. This high correlation makes copper just as important for silver investors to watch as gold.
Once I recognized copper’s significance in understanding silver’s price movements—and how silver behaves as a hybrid of gold and copper—I developed an indicator called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) to better validate silver’s price trends.
This index combines the average prices of gold and copper, with copper adjusted by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from disproportionately influencing the calculation.
Despite silver itself not being an input, the SSPI closely tracks silver’s price movements, providing valuable insight into its price action.
For several months, I’ve been closely watching the SSPI as it struggled to break above the critical 2,600 to 2,640 resistance zone, repeatedly emphasizing that a breakout above this level would be a strong bullish confirmation for silver.
Thanks to recent impressive rallies in both copper and gold, that long-anticipated breakout has finally occurred, signaling that a significant move in silver is likely imminent.
One of the key drivers behind the surge in copper, silver, and gold since the start of the year has been the sharp decline in the U.S. Dollar Index.
Since the Dollar Index and precious metals have an inverse relationship, a weakening dollar typically fuels bullish momentum in gold and silver, while a strengthening dollar applies downward pressure.
The dollar’s surge leading up to and following the U.S. presidential election triggered a steep drop in gold and silver, leading many to believe the rally was over—but as I pointed out at the time, that wasn’t the case.
There is a high probability of further significant declines in the U.S. Dollar Index, as it currently sits at one of its most overvalued levels relative to other fiat currencies in over 120 years of data—the last instances being 1933 and 1985, both of which were followed by sharp dollar weakness.
If history repeats, this would be extremely bullish for the entire commodities sector, including copper, gold, silver, and mining stocks, given the strong inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities.
Finally, let’s examine where silver stands after its strong gains since the start of the month. COMEX silver futures have successfully broken above the critical $32–$33 resistance zone, which had acted as a ceiling for much of the past year—a highly bullish development.
The next key hurdle is the $34–$35 resistance zone just overhead. Once silver clears this level, I believe it will enter a powerful bull market, rapidly climbing to $40, $50, $60, and beyond.
While many silver investors are feeling pessimistic after watching gold surge while silver struggled over the past year, I see things differently.
I see a strong parallel between silver’s $32–$33 resistance zone, which has acted as a ceiling for much of the past year, and gold’s $2,000–$2,100 resistance zone, which capped its upside from 2020 until 2024.
Once gold finally broke above that level, it exploded higher—and I believe silver is on the verge of doing the same.
In summary, the stars are aligning for copper, which has surged 25% after breaking out of its triangle pattern and now sits just below the key $5–$5.20 resistance zone—a breakout above should ignite a full-fledged bull market.
This would also be highly bullish for silver, given their strong correlation and the trading algorithms that link their movements.
Additionally, with the overvalued U.S. dollar likely to normalize soon, the entire commodities sector, including copper, silver, gold, and mining stocks, should explode higher. This is an exciting moment for hard asset investors. Continue reading →
Gold holds above $3,000 ahead of Fed
Gold holds solidly above $3000 near record levels early Wednesday as investors awaited further direction from the Federal Reserve. The … Continue reading →
Worried About Stocks? Choose Gold Over Bonds for Safety, BlackRock Says
The U.S. stock market is having a tough time amid trade-war fears. Investors should stick with equities over the long term but those looking for a near-term buffer should go for gold instead of Treasury bonds, according to BlackRock.“We stay overweight U.S. stocks as policy uncertainty should ease over a six- to 12-month horizon. We don’t see long-term bonds as reliable portfolio diversifiers, even if growth suffers, given persistent deficits and inflation,” wrote Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a research note.Mostly, the counsel is against panic. Despite the S&P 500’s fall into correction territory, BlackRock notes earnings are expected to grow 12% this year, barely down from 14% last September. Meanwhile in the hard-hit technology sector, margins, earnings and revenue forecasts are holding up and free cash flow is at 30% of sales, the highest share since 1990. Continue reading →
Global Silver Market Under Strain as Tariffs Trigger Dislocation (Bloomberg)
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Futures struggle for direction ahead of Fed meeting
(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures struggled for direction on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting that will … Continue reading →
Technical Scoop: Temporary Rallies, Stagflation Possible, Precious Recognition
Excerpt from this week’s: Technical Scoop: Temporary Rallies, Stagflation Possible, Precious Recognition
Source: www.stockcharts.com
Another day, another record for gold. Gold is a go-to safe haven in times of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and loss of faith in governments. The result was a 3.0% gain for gold this past week and a close at the magical $3,000. Normally we’d have to say that these landmark points are points of resistance. We saw it at $1,000 and $2,000. We’d break through, then there’d be a pullback, sometimes a spooky one. There are a lot of nervous nellies on this ride and they’ll hit sell on any little down gyration. With an RSI at 66 we seem to have room to move higher. But then the current RSI is diverging negatively with the one seen earlier when gold hit $2,974. Then there was a 4.5% drop. Nothing goes straight up. A choppy rise is preferable to a straight up rise. We could be forming what appears to us as a potential rising wedge triangle or ascending wedge triangle. We seem to have room to get to $3,050 or even $3,100 before pulling back. The triangle appears to break down under $2,925 and if that happens it could take us down to $2,760.
Other precious metals rose this past week. Silver was up 4.9%, while platinum gained 4.8% and is back over $1,000. Near precious metals saw palladium up 1.9% and copper gaining 4.0% as it marches towards $5.00. The gold stocks gained as the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was up 4.9% and the TSX Gold Index (TGD) gained 4.3%. Gold is now up 13.6% in 2025 and silver 17.8%. Compare that to the TSX down 0.7% and the S&P 500 down 4.1% in 2025.
Gold is benefitting from the chaos in the U.S. with tariffs, threats against judges and media, and threats to annex Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal. Is the U.S. constitution in trouble? There has been constant talk of lowering the value of the U.S. dollar (note: it’s already happening). One way would be to revalue gold upward just as they did at the height of the Great Depression. We note the gold held in Fort Knox still sits on the books of the U.S. at $42.22. Despite a steady stream of central banks adding to their gold reserves, the U.S. has stood pat but still has the world’s largest gold reserves.
We live in nerve-wracking times and, while cash and bonds are good safe havens, gold is the best as it has no liability. And a reminder that cryptos are just flickers on a screen still open to hacks, theft, and money laundering. Bitcoin, after a monumental rise to over $100,000, is down 9.8% in 2025.
Source: www.stockcharts.com
Are we finally going to see a breakthrough for silver to new highs? This past week we took out $34 resistance. We also took out points that suggest we should get new highs above $35.07 seen in October 2024. All-time highs at $50 still seem remote. Nonetheless, pullbacks can be expected. As of now, the line in the sand is at $31.30, although we’d also like to see $32.25 hold on any pullback. The RSI is at a reasonable 64 so we are not overbought at the moment, suggesting room to move higher. We break out firmly above $35.50. It has been a choppy rise for silver, with good rises offset by steep pullbacks. Silver continues to be the forgotten companion to gold. Or, as we call it, the poor man’s gold. Silver remains relatively cheap and the gold/silver ratio, currently
at 87, remains quite elevated. We have seen recent buying in silver stocks, suggesting that they may be forecasting a pending rise in silver prices.
Source: www.stockcharts.com
Onward and upward. Gold stocks have been the best-performing asset so far in 2025 with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up 24.4% in 2025, including a 4.9% gain this past week as gold prices reached record highs. The TSX Gold Index (TGD) is up 28.2% in 2025, including 4.3% this past week. Can they keep it up? We might catch pullbacks first, although the RSI on the TGD is not as yet overbought. There has yet to be a mad rush into gold stocks or even gold for that matter, despite the stellar 2025 performance and the collapse of the broader markets.
The TGD made fresh 52-week highs this past week but the HUI remains below its high. A possible divergence? We seem to have good support for the TGD down to 410, but under that we could fall to 390. We’re a long way from a major breakdown under 360. Within sight now is the all-time high for the TGD at 455. We are 5% under that level. Too bad the HUI can’t claim the same as it remains down 46% from that 2011 high. We are 14 years and counting to see new all-time highs for the gold stocks once again. A reminder that it took 25 years for the DJI to regain its 1929 high and 34 years for Japan’s Nikkei Dow to regain its high. It took roughly seven years for the DJI to regain its 2007 high. It is possible we have made a temporary top, especially if gold falters at $3,000 resistance, which is a distinct possibility. Support levels then become important. We wouldn’t want to see the TGD break under 388, the most recent low.
Read the FULL report: Technical Scoop: Temporary Rallies, Stagflation Possible, Precious Recognition
Disclaimer
David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers. The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary. David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks. David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated. Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. Continue reading →
Gold hovering near $3,000 an ounce
Gold hovering near $3,000 an ounce, as it edged lower early Monday on profit taking after the yellow metal rallied … Continue reading →
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Stocks Rise as Retail Sales Weak, But Not Awful: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders fearing a bigger pullback in consumer spending amid all the tariff drama got a degree … Continue reading →
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Dollar Could Fall Alongside U.S. Equities Amid Tariff Risks
The dollar could come under pressure as U.S. equities are seen opening lower amid looming U.S. tariffs, ING’s Chris Turner said in a note.President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would impose broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2.”Unless we get some surprisingly strong U.S. retail sales figures today, a heavy-looking U.S. stock market looks likely to keep U.S. rates and the dollar on the soft side,” Turner said. Continue reading →
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‘The Jig is Up’ – Why is Gold Flying Out of the Comex? Matthew Piepenburg
Matthew Piepenburg warned about the US dollar’s decline and the surge in physical gold demand. He highlighted a massive gold … Continue reading →
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‘Now the Squeeze Comes’ – Gold & Silver Inventories Dangerously Low: Ian Everard
Ian Everard warns of a looming precious metals supply crunch. He highlights manipulated markets, dwindling silver stocks, and the strategic … Continue reading →
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Gold breaches $3,000 mark
Gold breaches the psychological $3,000 mark overnight. Spot gold tipped across that benchmark early Friday as the yellow metal continued … Continue reading →
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