The Dow rises 400 points as Apple leads a Nasdaq rally. But tariff and recession fears linger

U.S. stocks climbed Monday morning as investors digested mixed messages on the trade war following some of the most chaotic and turbulent weeks in recent market memory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both added 1.3%. Gold, meanwhile, slipped 0.1%, suggesting a slight pullback from last week’s mad dash into safe-haven assets. Apple (AAPL) stock helped lead market indexes higher.

A surprise tariff exemption for electronics announced late Friday sparked the tech-led bounce on Monday. The exemption, issued by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, temporarily removes smartphones, laptops, and other consumer electronics from Trump administration tariffs on Chinese goods – offering relief for companies such as Apple, Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT) that rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing.

But the reprieve may be short-lived. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the products are still included under a forthcoming round of semiconductor-related tariffs “coming in probably a month or two.”

And President Donald Trump later rejected the idea that there had been any exemption at all, saying the goods are still subject to existing 20% fentanyl-linked tariffs and had merely shifted tariff categories. He said no product was actually exempt, calling the change a simple reclassification.

“NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook,’” Trump said Sunday on his social media site Truth Social.

Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts criticized the shifting policies as “chaos and corruption,” warning that such unpredictability is eroding investor confidence.

Forecasts cut amidst extreme fear

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Fear & Greed Index is still planted in “extreme fear” territory, reflecting a lack of bullish sentiment amidst chaotic policy announcements — to say nothing of chaotic policy determination. The S&P 500’s recent 5% intraday swings suggest volatility that is more structural than seasonal.

Analysts at both Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C) have cut their year-end forecasts for U.S. stocks, pointing to rising risks from such unpredictable policy moves and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Heading into a packed week of corporate earnings in which major banks, healthcare companies, and consumer-facing platforms such as Netflix (NFLX) will report results, each release could either steady or rattle investor nerves.

Apple bites back

Apple stock jumped about 5% on Monday morning, lifted by hope of temporary exemption from new electronics tariffs.

Separately, Apple reclaimed the top spot in global smartphone shipments for the first quarter 2025, thanks to strong demand for the iPhone 16e in markets like Japan and India. Even alongside valid fears of disruptions to Apple’s supply chain, its product suite and global brand power remain unmatched.

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