U.S. Recession Probability Plunges To 27%

Summary

  • The odds a U.S. recession will someday be determined to have begun between January 2025 and January 2026 have dropped to a little higher than a one-in-four chance.
  • The main factor lowering the probability of a recession beginning in the last several months is the Federal Reserve’s interest rates during 2024.
  • We now anticipate the decline of the recession probability will slow and stall out above the 20% threshold in the weeks ahead in the absence of any additional interest rate cuts by the Fed in the next several months.
USD dollar banknote is torn with recession wording on red background for United of America risk of great economic depression crisis concept.

Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images

The odds a U.S. recession will someday be determined to have begun between January 2025 and January 2026 have dropped to a little higher than a one-in-four chance.

This assessment is based on the yield

 

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